 "Iran at crossroads: How election of a new president can herald better Tehran-West ties")
Iran’s president-elect, Masoud Pezeshkian, vowed to be the leader of ‘all Iranians’ has created tremendous interest in the Middle East, as Iran is an important actor in the region, and the future course of the Gaza crisis largely depends on Iranian policy, its approach, and its support for ‘Axis of Resistance’.
The election of an unlikely reformist leader in Iran is bound to have implications and, at least, expectations of change. But a lot depends on the position and powers of the president in the Iranian political system, its national interests for its policies in the region, its geopolitical imperatives in relation to its global partners—Russia and China—and the overall global geopolitical changes. Equally, the policies of the West and US in particular would determine Iran’s policy direction in the region and world.
The election of a reformist president has generated huge expectations at home and abroad. But it must be noted that in the power structure of Iran, the president has to function under the authority of the Supreme Leader and with such powerful institutions as the Guardian Council and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
However, this election of Pezeshkian is a sure manifestation of numerous positive changes and hopes. First, the approval of a reformist candidate as well as his winning the election with such a margin bring credibility to the Iranian system on the global stage. The pouring of congratulatory messages from the world leaders is telling evidence. This is sure to enhance Iran’s capacity to deal with Western criticism.
The 50 per cent turnout in the second round compared to the 40 per cent turnout in the first round clearly signifies the expanding support and endorsement of Iranians for liberal reformist policies and the breaking of its international isolation.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe huge margin of almost three million exhibits that Iranians want change and hope to move in the right direction by voting for Pezeshkian’s broad thrust of an election campaign based on reforms at home and engagement abroad. It portrays hope for the easing of sanctions through constructive engagement with the West.
Pezeshkian’s campaign on the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) and economic development appealed to the voters and matched their perceived direction to better their lives. Besides, it also shows that the popular mood is to protect Iran from further sliding under conservative Saed Jalili.
Iran-Saudi normalisation in March 2023 has expanded into a broad Iran-Arab normalisation. The reactions and messages from Gulf and wider Arab countries were significant and notable. King Salman of Saudi Arabia expressed hope for the “continued development of relations that link our two countries and our two brotherly peoples”. He further wished for “coordination and dialogue to strengthen regional and international peace and security”.
Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman said, “I affirm my keenness on developing and deepening the relations that unite our countries and peoples and serve our mutual interests.” Similar expressions were made by other Gulf states like Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait. These reactions in the region are unprecedented signs of the receding of Iran phobia and a hope for potential wider and deeper cooperation and peace in this conflict-ridden region. The popularity of the Palestine issue in Arab society has ameliorated perceptions of Iran with the Gaza war underway. The Arab League’s recent removal of Iran-supported Hezbollah from the list of terrorist organisations is a clear manifestation of deepening Iran-Arab unity.
The reformist president of Iran, therefore, will not have any significant change in Tehran’s Israel policy or and in the existing affinity to Palestinian cause. But the emphasis of the new president on engagement with the West can have a moderating impact on Israel’s pursuits in the Gaza war and Western support.
The US policy, which sometimes involves contacting Iran through Oman behind the scenes and indirect nuclear talks in Vienna, can assume a direct and formal negotiation framework irrespective of the outcome. This possibility is very likely in the face of the growing great power challenge to the US in the West with the increasing expansion of China and Russia, which is part of the global contest between Russia and China with the West. The reformist Iranian president’s willingness to engage with the West is a huge opportunity for the US to manage its global rivals and retain its primacy in the region.
Despite political and constitutional limitations, the Iranian president and his government ministers represent the popular mood and can make coordination and broad consensus on matters of national interest with other institutions like the IRGC, the Guardian Council, the National Security Council, and the Supreme Leader.
The president-elect has already met Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), who congratulated him and assured that the SNSC will utilise all its capacities to support the incoming administration.
The US reaction foretold a mood of strategic caution at this stage. “We have no expectation that this election will lead to a fundamental change in Iran’s direction or its policies," said the White House spokesperson, John Miller. In response to a question on US willingness, he added, “We have always said that diplomacy is the most effective way to achieve an effective, sustainable solution with regard to Iran’s nuclear programme." Thus, the window of engagement and negotiation is open, and the new Iranian presidency can bring about a change in the policy of the West.
This is a strategically prudent chance for the West to engage with Iran and reduce Iran’s embrace of China and Russia, whose expanding influence in the region is hurting the US’ position and interests in the region. It can also be helpful to reach a sustainable peace in Palestine by easing Israel’s approach towards Iran. Combined with growing Iran-Arab engagement, this would be helpful for regional security and stability. But a lot depends on how the US responds and how it can manage Israel’s war in Gaza, and it’s Iran’s policy that is dead against the JCPOA.
Iran has been strategically important for India with its long-term political, security, and economic ties. India has maintained strategic neutrality in Iran-GCC and Iran-Israel rivalries and conflicts. India and Iran have a shared vision for Afghanistan’s peace and maritime security in the Western Indian Ocean and Central Asia.
With the non-renewal of the sanction waiver in 2019, India was forced to stop buying oil from Iran. But the continuation of the Chahbahar project has been the symbol of India-Iran shared strategic imperatives. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Prsident-elect Pezeshkian on his election and added that he was “looking forward to working closely with you to further strengthen our warm and long-standing bilateral relationship for the benefit of our people”.
The possible Iran-West engagement will benefit India in multiple ways. Lifting sanctions would boost India’s trade with Iran, energy security, enhanced cooperation on maritime security, and continental security with sustained central Asian connectivity. Above all, closer relations with India will provide Iran with a strategic option in its ‘Look to the East’ policy.
The change has produced hopes, and it must be tried and promoted by all concerned. But a lot depends on the calming of conflict in Gaza and Ukraine as well as the simmering tensions in the Indo-Pacific, as all have geopolitical linkages in the globalised, multi-polar world.
Manish Dabhade is Associate Professor of Diplomacy, JNU & Founder of The Indian Futures, an independent think tank in New Delhi; X: @imanishdabhade. Khushnam P N is Director of Research (Honorary), The Indian Futures based in Bengaluru & focuses on Middle East; X: khushnamn. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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