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No, India has not ‘capitulated’ to Trump’s pressure on Russian oil, and neither have we suffered loss of autonomy

Sreemoy Talukdar October 17, 2025, 10:28:25 IST

The US president seeks a face-saving off-ramp to seal the trade deal and we will give it to him

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Trump, who has a habit of making tall claims and self-serving interpretations, often creates facts out of thin air. Representational image
Trump, who has a habit of making tall claims and self-serving interpretations, often creates facts out of thin air. Representational image

Donald Trump has done it again. His claim on Wednesday at a presser at the White House (Thursday morning India time) that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has “assured” him India will no longer buy Russian oil has set the cat among the pigeons in India with opinions ranging from “Modi’s capitulation before Trump” to “loss of India’s sovereignty”.

Before jumping to melodramatic conclusions, however, it is worth noting the exact words of Trump, who has a habit of making tall claims and self-serving interpretations, often creating facts out of thin air. As a statesman, a world leader and an occupant of the world’s most powerful office, Trump can move markets and shift geopolitical winds with his statements, but he has consistently and progressively lowered the credibility of his high office with misleading claims, chronic hyperbole and blatant disinformation. Therefore, knee jerk reactions based on his comments alone reflect either outrage addiction, insecurity or political opportunism.

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Trump, in reply to a question, said he “was not happy that India was buying oil, and he (PM Modi) has assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia.”

He added that “you can’t do it immediately. It’s a little bit of a process, but the process is going to be over with soon,” adding, “That’s a big step. Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing.”

Trump also said that “If India does not buy oil, it makes it (ending the Russia-Ukraine war) easier. They have assured me that within a short period of time, they will not be buying oil from Russia, and they will go back to Russia after the war is over…”

I have narrated his comments in detail since it is relevant to my argument. Short point, Trump is talking through his hat. His assertions might carry a kernel of truth, but the overall claims are likely wild exaggerations.

It is also worth noting that Trump had a lengthy conversation with Vladimir Putin Thursday. He announced an upcoming meeting with the Russian president in Budapest, Hungary, in couple of weeks where he will ostensibly discuss “bringing the inglorious war to and end”, and a major part of their telephonic conversations centred around “trade between Russia and the United States when the war is over.”

In Trumpian world, it is ‘art of the deal’ to interfere with India’s energy trade with Russia, while simultaneously trying to cut a deal with Kremlin on the side. It tells us something about his opportunism and obsessive transactionalism. Trump’s claim that the Indian PM “assured him” of ending Russian oil imports is difficult to believe. I posted last night on X (formerly Twitter) that Modi likely gave no such assurance. In fact, had the PM been in a conversation with Trump, the Indian side would’ve released the information. I posited that “this is another of Trump’s disinformation attempts.”

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I wasn’t wrong.

India’s ministry of external affairs confirmed Thursday that no such conversation took place between Modi and Trump last night. What may have happened instead that purchase of Russian oil came up during Modi conversation with US ambassador to India Sergio Gor, who was on a four-day trip to India and met with the PM and his cabinet colleagues even though it is unusual for an envoy to get the PM’s audience before presenting formal credentials.

Gor apparently has a direct line to Trump, the US president chose to interpret the development in a way that suits his purpose. That left the Modi government facing a curveball, since the purchase of Russian oil ever since Trump slapped an additional 25% tariff on India has developed into a hot potato in Indian domestic politics.

The Congress Party wasted no time in portraying Modi as a ‘coward’, with Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi claiming, “PM Modi is frightened of Trump (sic)”, and Congress memes driving home the message that the ‘prime minister has capitulated before the US president’, a line of attack the Congress has used several times in recent past. The idea that American pressure may shape India’s trade policy and affect the India-Russia relationship is an explosive topic. Putin knows it and recently tried to play it up. Little wonder that the Opposition tried to shape such a narrative.

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It needed a response, and the MEA released a carefully worded statement that appeared to clap back against Trump’s claims without summarily rejecting his comments. It is reflection of the calibrated, patient approach that New Delhi has adopted to firewall the larger bilateral relationship from the volatile machinations of a mercurial, unpredictable US president.

The MEA statement made no mention of Trump’s comments and pointed out that India’s import policies are aimed at safeguarding “the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario” and “ensuring stable energy prices and secured supplies.” The readout added that India is looking to broad base its “energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions,” that includes sourcing more from the US.

In an apparent nod to Trump’s demands, the readout stated that “where the US is concerned, we have for many years sought to expand our energy procurement. This has steadily progressed in the last decade. The current Administration has shown interest in deepening energy cooperation with India. Discussions are ongoing.”

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The placatory words for the US drew criticism from certain sections. It stands in stark contrast with the fire and brimstone reaction of Chinese foreign ministry. “We firmly oppose the US’s action of directing the issue at China, and we strongly oppose imposing illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction on China.” The ministry spokesperson warned Washington that “if China’s legitimate rights and interests are harmed, we will take firm countermeasures to safeguard our sovereignty, development, and security interests.”

India’s ambiguous, nonconfrontational response, however, has a larger purpose. New Delhi seeks a withdrawal of the 50% tariffs and is keen to land a mutually beneficial deal with its largest trading partner without compromising on its red lines or energy security. The larger geopolitical context – with China ramping up trade tensions with the US over its strict export restrictions on rare earth minerals and production technology – has led India to believe that the time is opportune for the long-pending trade deal to materialize. Even more so as Washington, alarmed by China’s move to exploit America’s strategic vulnerability, seeks India’s support .

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As Time magazine quotes Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as saying, “We’ve never had mineral restrictions at this level and particularly ones targeted at our defense industry… China’s weaponization of rare earths has backed us into a very tight corner when it comes to our own national security.”

So, Trump is in a tight corner. This suits India. However, both India and the US need to find an off-ramp to move past the obstacles and settle the deal. Right at this moment, with China giving Trump a taste of his own medicine and the US president facing significant dissent from soybean farmers in red states, Trump’s need for an off-ramp with India is greater. In other words, Trump is looking for a face saver to seal a trade deal with India but cannot be seen making a unilateral concession.

India’s statement on purchase of American energy is aimed at speeding those talks since New Delhi’s core strategy will be to diversify crude sourcing and give the US a substantial size of the pie. A recent Bloomberg report quoted India’s trade secretary Rajesh Agrawal, as saying that while India’s energy purchases from the US have gone up, “right now we are at an average of $12-$13 billion as per FY25 figures and there is headroom for $14-$15 billion more with the current refinery configuration”. That would significantly draw down the $42.7 billion trade surplus that India enjoys, a point of obsession for Trump.

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While India seeks to seal the trade deal by harnessing geopolitical currents and buying more American energy, it makes little economic sense for India to completely reject Russian oil which, as of now, isn’t sanctioned but price-capped, and remains meaningfully cheaper than alternative sources. Additionally, with Putin’s India visit slated for December, it will be surprising if New Delhi chooses to give such an assurance to Trump.

In this context, the Opposition’s attack on the government, accusing it of “capitulation” before American pressure is incorrect and an attempt at obfuscation of reality.

India has insisted that it will safeguard the interests of consumers. India buys, because it makes economic sense and ensures energy security for its people in an unpredictable market. India was the second-largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude in September and will continue to buy as long as it remains profitable and sanction-free.

Data from Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), quoted by Economic Times, notes that “Indian refiners bought Rs 2.5 billion (Rs 25,597 crore) worth of Russian crude in September”, next only to China’s Rs 3.2 billion. India also picked up “Russian coal and refined fuels, with total fossil imports of Rs 3.6 billion behind China’s Rs 5.5 billion.”

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In fact, since Trump’s imposition of additional 25% tariffs in the last week of August (50% overall), Indian refiners have purchased an estimated 140–150 million barrels of Russian crude in the seven weeks, maintaining a daily average near 1.7 million bpd. Kpler and Bloomberg data confirms that imports remain robust largely due to price advantages and logistical commitments. It is a strange ‘capitulation’.

According to data from Reuters, India’s monthly imports of Russian crude averaged between 1.6 and 2.1 million bpd from January to September 2025. The volumes went up in April at around 2.1 million bpd before declining, with September seeing imports settle at roughly 1.6 million bpd.

Bloomberg reports that “Russian crude flows to India in October are set to average around 1.7 million bpd”, citing estimates from Kpler. “That would be about 6% higher than September, but slightly lower than a year earlier.”

While India’s energy purchases from Russia remained steady despite massive pressure campaign from Trump and daily insults from his cronies, it is to be understood that Russian oil is a commodity, and hence fungible. It is not a red line that ‘cannot be crossed under any circumstances’, unlike, say, the entry of American multinational agrobusinesses in India’s agricultural or dairy sectors.

Russia accounted for less than two per cent of India’s imports before Ukraine war. Both state-owned and private Indian refineries started picking up Russian seaborne crude primarily due to steep discounts, pushing Moscow’s share above 35-40% of total crude imports by mid‑2023, resulting in significant annual savings for India —up to $7-10 billion in some years.

India’s purchase was smart, cost-effective and strategic, ensuring stability in global energy markets and keeping domestic prices affordable for Indian citizens. The discounts enabled the Indian government to cross subsidize its welfare schemes. Above all, the purchase of unsanctioned, price-capped Russian fuel helped narrow India’s current account deficit by 65% in the fiscal 2023-24. Totally diversifying away from this source will substantially increase inflation levels since the annual crude import bill could jump by $9-12 billion due to the volumes involved.

This is market dynamics at play. As noted energy economist Anas Alhajji writes in Substack, “post the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and G7/EU sanctions, oil imports from Russia surged, meeting India’s growing demand and replacing oil from high-shipping-cost regions like the US, South America, and West Africa…. India swapped high-shipping-cost crude from the US, South America, and Africa with cheaper Russian crude. About 932 kb/d of costlier oil or oil redirected to Kuwait and Oman’s refineries was replaced by Russian imports.”

Important to note here that while India has kept up its purchase of Russian oil steady since Ukraine war and despite Trump’s tariffs, it has substantially expanded supplier base from 27 countries in 2021 to 39 by 2025, adding new entrants such as Guyana, Brazil, and Canada.

Digging deeper, we find that while private refiners such Reliance Industries and Nyara Energy remain heavily dependent on Russia, importing roughly 1.2-1.3 million bpd (cumulative) in late 2025 — nearly two-thirds of India’s Russian crude inflows, state-owned refiners such as IOC, BPCL or HPCL have significantly diversified away from Russian oil toward American, Canadian, Iraqi, West Asian and African sources.

AInvest report observes that “IOC’s recent tender-driven purchases from the US and Canada—such as 500,000 barrels of Western Canadian Select—highlight a pragmatic shift. While US and Canadian crude is more expensive than Russian oil, the diversification reduces exposure to sanctions and aligns with India’s long-term energy security goals.”

Going forward, it is likely that we may see state-owned refiners pare down their intake further while private players keep their share steady, allowing both India and the US a way ahead without incurring substantial audience costs.

To call this a loss of sovereignty or capitulation is foolish. As Alhajji observes, “when the US sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan oil and prevented other countries form dealing with them, Indian refineries stopped importing form both countries. No similar restrictions on Russian crude has been made yet.”

If it didn’t erode India’s sovereignty to stop buying Iranian energy, that is substantially cheaper (and leaves China as the only major buyer), then smart diversification away from Russian sources while keeping overall volumes steady won’t either. The outrage is pointless and the framing ideological. Tactical settlements are part of negotiation strategy. Even if India has given an assurance, Trump’s own words indicate that such a move will take time, if at all given the fast-changing circumstances.

Besides, who’s to stop private refiners from rerouting crude to state-owned firms if need be? Statecraft is not an ideological war. Maximalist positions are unhelpful, especially for a middle power. China is in a position to issue warnings and take steps we can’t. The capabilities that it has built assiduously over the years allows Beijing to retaliate against Washington’s ‘long-arm jurisdiction’. We are not there yet.

However, India does have red lines, strategies that ensure the energy security of our peoples. If our leaders can hold on to the red lines, secure energy security, strike mutually profitable deals with stronger powers while making reasonable adjustments, that is an acceptable outcome.

The writer is Deputy Executive Editor, Firstpost. He tweets as @sreemoytalukdar. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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