India should stay vigilant, build strength amid Trump’s bullying, Xi’s courting

The year 2025 is indeed turning out to be interesting for India. In just eight months, India has seen it all: a tariff war with the US, a surprising yet welcome reset with China, continuing close ties with Russia, a brief yet intense military conflict against Pakistan, a steadily growing economy and a continued push towards self-reliance.

Each of the developments, both domestic and international, is likely to leave a lasting impact on India as it marches ahead towards becoming the third largest economy by 2030 and a Viksit Bharat (developed India) by 2047.

The Collapsing International Order

The return of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the US in January 2025 and his approach to global issues are causing tremendous strain in international geopolitics. In his efforts to ‘Make America Great Again’, his key poll campaign, he has systematically overturned everything. Despite his claims to end the ongoing wars within days of assuming office, the Gaza War rages on. Plus, the ‘12 Day War’ between Israel (with active support of the US) and Iran has led to new red lines being drawn across the security landscape in the region. The Russia-Ukraine war too continues unabated, and Trump’s multiple interventions, threats and meetings have not resulted in the end of the conflict yet.

In the middle of all this, India and Pakistan were engaged in a brief but intense military conflict, resulting from an outrageous terror attack by Pakistan-sponsored terrorists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22. India’s intense, precise and punitive strikes brought Pakistan to its knees within 96 hours, but what followed thereafter was nothing short of drama.

Despite India’s categorical insistence that the ceasefire was agreed upon bilaterally, based on Pakistan’s request, Trump has publicly insisted more than a dozen times that it was he who got the ceasefire and prevented the possibility of a nuclear war.

This rebuke from India, coupled with the US alleging that it is India’s purchases of Russian crude oil at discounted prices that are fuelling the Russia-Ukraine war, prompted the US, and specifically President Trump, to impose 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods being imported by the US.

Belying all expectations, India has stood its ground, leaving Trump not only feeling the heat of a bluff falling flat but also risking alienating India, a key strategic partnership built over the past two decades with successive administrations.

The recent developments with China, commencing with the Modi-Xi meet in Kazan on the sidelines of Brics Summit in October 2024 and the recent reset as a result of PM Modi’s participation in the SCO Summit in Tianjin, China, on 31 August 2025, are welcome but need to be treated with caution and restraint. The ties with Russia, however, remain as solid as ever. The additional tariffs imposed by the US on India have only resulted in India and Russia coming closer and pledging closer support to each other.

The fact that Ukraine and even the EU are now courting India to broker a ceasefire in the war speaks a lot about how India is being viewed in the world irrespective of the subservience being demanded by the US. India’s strong ties with countries in West Asia and growing ties with Africa and Latin America are proof of India’s growing global prominence. Plus, the fact that India is championing the cause of the Global South, especially after getting the African Union included in the G20 framework at the Delhi Summit in September 2023, is an added vindication of India’s global outreach.

Long-Term Approach

On most fronts, India has handled itself well and is progressing ahead steadily towards its goal of Viksit Bharat by 2047. The future strategy of India requires a long-term approach which should be a judicious combination of its global outreach and leadership, domestic consolidation, political stability and steady economic growth.

Global Strategy

‘Trust but Verify and Reverify’ needs to be the mantra for India in its global outreach. The defeat of Pakistan in Operation Sindoor in a mere 96 hours was an outstanding display of military skill and superiority, but there are many key lessons to be taken forward too.

Similarly, the reset with China needs to be handled with due caution. Both Pakistan and China have proved more than once that their assurances towards peace and tranquillity cannot be trusted, and this is a key lesson for India in its neighbourhood policy.

With both also sharing hundreds of kilometres of border with India, it makes it even more imperative in future planning for India’s security. Also, the close and very closely intertwined defence and security partnership between China and Pakistan is unlikely to be diluted irrespective of the improvement in relations with China.

Moving forward, this should be clearly factored into Indian defence and security planning, both in terms of Chinese support to Pakistan by providing key weapon platforms and technology and also activating the second front in case of a future war (which may sound less likely right now).

Similarly, with the US, the fact that India has stood its ground, protecting its national interests and sovereign rights, has set a good benchmark for the future. Remember, this is not the first time that the US has imposed economic penalties on India, nor is it the first time that the US has prioritised Pakistan over India.

Yes, the two countries have built a strong partnership over the last two decades, commencing with the Civil Nuclear Partnership Agreement in 2006, followed by partnerships and deals in key defence technology, weapon platforms, critical technologies, etc.

However, as the US is realising now, these did not mean that Indian interests would be considered subservient to American diktats. In hindsight, many in the Indian policy circles rue some decisions taken during Trump 1.0, like stopping oil imports from Iran under the threat of US sanctions (when the US had unilaterally revoked the Iran nuclear deal with Iran in May 2018).

On the other hand, Russia has proved more than once the strong bond, mutual trust and strategic convergence it enjoys with India. The forthcoming visit of President Vladimir Putin in December 2025 could well lay the foundation for future partnership projects, including future weapon platforms and technologies. Similarly, with the EU, there is a newfound convergence, and a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could be the perfect boost to the ties.

With the ambitious transcontinental connectivity project, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (Imec), India-EU ties could get a further boost as well as provide diversified options to boost trade. This is especially relevant in view of tariff blackmail by the US, both against India and Europe and the rest of the world.

Domestic Consolidation

Rapid Economic Growth

India is currently in a purple patch on most vectors on the domestic front. The GDP growth has consistently clocked more than 6 per cent, and India has been the fastest-growing economy in the world for the past three years and is on the path to continue in the same vein.

India became the fourth largest global economy in May 2025, surpassing Japan, and is projected to surpass Germany by 2030 to become the third largest economy. A GDP growth of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, as per the figures released in August, only validates the economic growth. The landmark tax reforms in the Goods and Services Tax (GST), announced on September 3, aim to boost domestic consumption and better compliance.

Digitisation of the economy, especially the use of Fintech, has made India a global leader. As per a note released by the International Monetary Fund in June 2025, titled “Growing Retail Digital Payments: The Value of Interoperability”, India has emerged as the global leader in fast payments, predominantly through the Unified Payments Interface (UPI).

In June 2025 alone, it handled over ₹24.03 lakh crore in payments, spread across 18.39 billion transactions. Compared to the same month last year, when there were 13.88 billion transactions, there is an increase of about 32 per cent in just one year. India’s UPI is also now the world’s number one real-time payment system, surpassing Visa. As of June 2025, UPI handles more than 640 million transactions every day, compared to Visa’s 639 million.

Defence Modernisation and Self-Reliance 

On the defence and security front, India is making huge strides. The tremendous success of the Armed Forces during Operation Sindoor has set new benchmarks. It has spurred interest in the private sector to invest heavily in modern weapon systems and technology.

The announcement of Mission Sudarshan Chakra by PM Modi during the Independence Day speech on August 15 augurs well for securing vital assets in India for the future. Days later, India successfully conducted the maiden flight tests of the Integrated Air Defence Weapon System (IADWS) on 23rd August. IADWS is a multi-layered air defence system comprising all indigenous Quick Reaction Surface to Air Missiles, Advanced Very Short-Range Air Defence System missiles and a high-power laser-based Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) and the future of providing India an iron shield against aerial attacks.

Besides this, the successful test of Agni-5 on August 20, a nuclear-capable Intercontinental Ballistic Missile with a range of 5,000 km, adds tremendous teeth to India’s striking capability. Brahmos, the supersonic cruise missile which proved itself in Operation Sindoor for its range, accuracy and stealth, is already looking at an upgrade with work on Brahmos NG under development, which could have speeds up to 5-8 Mach coupled with improved stealth and destruction capability, making it virtually uncontested in the globe currently.

The defence capabilities are looking at a further boost with plans to develop a modern jet engine through a consortium in India over the next ten years, something where success has eluded India and which will reduce our over-dependence on the US or France.

Plans to jointly develop the fifth-generation fighter jets in India through the AMCA project, too, augur well for India’s goal of self-reliance and define modernisation. If some or most of these plans fructify, India will be well on its road towards self-reliance in defence and security.

Moving Ahead

As India looks ahead at the next decade, there is a sense of optimism. Many of the tough decisions taken over the last decade are slowly bearing fruit. The Semiconductor mission, launched as a key lesson from the Covid-19 experience, is already on its path to realisation with the first ‘Made in India’ chips delivered in September 2025.

Many top global brands like Apple and Tesla have set up shop in India. Plus, many global brands, especially in the aviation sector, like Boeing (setting up assembly lines), Dassault (for manufacturing the fuselage of Rafale fighter jets, in collaboration with Tata), and Airbus (in joint collaboration with Tata, for production of C-295 aircraft), are setting up plants in India. And India is growing economically at a steady rate.

The future therefore looks bullish and bright. However, it comes with a word of caution and perhaps a need to learn from the past, especially on the international front. While Pakistan may have been defeated, it still remains a formidable adversary, especially taking into context the active support from China and tacit support from the US.

Plus, the threat of cross-border terror is unlikely to be eliminated anytime soon. China may be willing to reconcile, but it cannot be trusted. On this, India would do well to learn many lessons from the past. India should move ahead with China on issues of shared interests; however, friction points and potential flashpoints should always remain in the forefront while planning ahead.

The US has proved time and again that it is an unreliable partner. While the US wants India to be its subservient partner like Pakistan or even the EU, India is not willing to bow down to such colonial mindsets any more. Any future relationship can be anchored only on equality and respect for sovereignty, something that it would be in US interests to understand sooner rather than later.

The unfolding growth story of India can thus be summed up in two parts. Internally, India should focus on building strengths and capabilities while building stronger partnerships internationally. On the other hand, it has to stay vigilant and guard against complacency, especially in relationships with countries like China, Pakistan and the US.

The mantra for India – ‘Stay Vigilant and Build Strengths’ – could be a key catalyst in ensuring India moves steadily towards its goal of Viksit and self-reliant Bharat by 2047.

Col Rajeev Agarwal is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X Handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.