Imran Khan’s ‘final call’ peters out as Shehbaz, Munir join hands

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) supremo Imran Khan from his jail cell, where he has remained since August last year, gave a ‘final call’ around two weeks ago to his supporters to march to Islamabad, occupy its famous D-Chowk and sit in dharna, till his party’s demands were met by the government. These demands, according to a well-respected Pakistan newspaper were “release of all political prisoners, including Imran Khan, reversal of the 26th Constitutional Amendment, restoration of democracy and Constitution in the country, and return of allegedly ‘stolen mandate’”.

Khan, who remains popular in Punjab but more importantly, the PTI runs the provincial government of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, expected that his ‘final call’ would result in a tsunami of his supporters converging on the Pakistani capital. That tsunami would cause the Pakistan Muslim League (N)-led coalition government of Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir who really controls the Pakistani political process to panic and give in to Khan’s demands.

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Khan’s supporters, from KP who were in convoys, some led by KP chief minister Sardar Amin Ali Khan Gandapur and the PTI leader’s wife, Bushra Bibi, crossed into Punjab on the November 25 night after breaking the security cordons placed in their path. By the 26th morning they managed to breach the defences of the capital city and going down its wide avenues also reached D-Chowk. All of Pakistan watched in wonder as Bushra Bibi many times addressed the convoy, of which she was a part, exhorting Khan’s supporters to move on and not to abandon their endeavour until her husband was ‘with them’.

The Pakistani people also wondered at the reluctance of the Shehbaz Sharif government to take decisive action against the agitators, especially in Islamabad. This was especially as the Islamabad High Court had ruled against the march breaking the law and order situation of Islamabad. For the major part of November 26 the government and the Army Chief, who remained in the background, seemed to be on the back foot. Despite all the arrangements made to stop the convoys, at different places, Khan’s supporters were able to break them and accomplish their objective of reaching Islamabad and remaining for a brief while even at D-Chowk.

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On its part, the Shehbaz Sharif government repeatedly claimed on November 25 and more so on November 26 that it was acting patiently because it did not want to fall into Khan’s trap. According to them, the trap was to make the government resort to disproportionate use of lethal force leading to a large number of deaths of Khan’s supporters. Khan would use these deaths to garner greater support.

The government also claimed that while it could not allow a dharna at D-Chowk, it was willing to allot a space in Islamabad to Khan’s supporters so that they could sit there in a dharna. The PTI’s senior leadership met Khan in jail on November 25 night. It remained tight-lipped but the government claimed that a split had occurred between these PTI leaders and Bushra Bibi who was not willing to give in. She remained firm on the D-Chowk dharna. Amidst all this the government was officially hosting the Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. That too put constraints on the government.

As Pakistan began to witness the virtual breakdown of law and order in parts of Islamabad which led to the death of six security personnel, Khan’s supporters sensed the government’s weakness and some of them began to laud the courage and leadership being shown by Bushra Bibi. Indeed, one of them on a prominent Pakistani TV channel compared her to ‘Jhansi ki Rani”. All this while the Shahbaz Sharif government and the Army Chief continued to exercise patience.

Gen Asim Munir kept himself in the background but made it obvious that he was with the government because along with Shehbaz Sharif he took part in the funeral of the security personnel. This was shown on Pakistani TV, making it clear to Pakistan that the Army stood firmly behind the government. Meanwhile, the government invoked Article 245 of the Pakistan constitution which permits it to seek the Army’s help to maintain law and order. Once that was done army personnel began to move in to sensitive places in Islamabad to augment the presence of the Islamabad police and the Pakistani Rangers.

By late night of November 26, the Pakistani authorities decided that they had given enough rope to Khan and Bushra Bibi. It was also clear by then that the senior leadership of the PTI and also the chief minister of KP were not on the same page as Khan and his begum. Clearly, a behind-the-scenes engagement was on between the government representatives and Khan’s senior leaders. The government was showing flexibility publicly because it had not fired upon the agitators along the road blocks, it had allowed them to enter Islamabad and had also agreed to give them a place to go on a dharna. It was therefore giving the PTI an opportunity to claim success.

However, Bushra Bibi wanted all or nothing, but the Army Chief—because there can be no doubt that the Shehbaz Sharif government would have been consulting him all through these crucial two days—could not have given in to Khan; the real contest in Pakistan, thus, is between Munir and Khan. Once security personnel had died, the Pakistan People’s Party, which is part of the coalition but not within the government, also came out in open condemnation of the agitation.

With its political flanks secured, security forces moved in late on November 26 and in the early hours of this morning to begin arresting Khan’s supporters. Reports indicate that 1000 of them have been taken into custody and more arrests are likely to take place. With the government cracking down the KP chief minister and Bushra Bibi left the container in which they were travelling/occupying and decamped. The container was set on fire by their supporters because, the government claimed, it contained incriminating evidence of the ‘criminal’ support given by the KP government to the agitators. The government also claimed that many Afghan nationals were part of the KP convoys.

With the disappearance of Bushra Bibi and the KP chief minister this agitation has been deftly neutralized by the army chief and the Shehbaz Sharif government. Gandapur surfaced on the 27th evening in Mansehra but, as I write these lines, Bushra Bibi has not been seen in public. This constitutes a definite set back to Imran Khan. During a recent interaction with a Khan supporter who held high office during his administration this author was told that Khan’s popularity was growing.

The supporter said that the chances of a Bangladesh like popular agitation which threw out Sheikh Hasina’s government or a movement like that which took place in Arab countries during the so-called Arab spring and led to regime change were present. When I said that it was unlikely with the army’s prestige and power in Pakistan he did not respond. But his comments did show that Imran Khan’s supporters are getting fairly desperate now. These persons, my Pakistani interlocutor included, must have been enthused by the ‘Rani of Jhansi’ leading from the front. But today their enthusiasm would have waned as Imran Khan’s ‘final call’ was foiled by the government. The agitation has now been called off.

Two last points: One, while some of Khan’s supporters reached Islamabad from Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan, the government’s there, doubtless aided by the army, did not allow the movement of any convoys from these provinces. This shows that while there is support for Khan there are not many who are willing to give their lives for him by storming the barricades. Two, the Shehbaz Sharif government and Munir handled Khan’s challenge with skill and flexibility. This will bolster their alliance which has been strengthened by the 26th Amendment. And they will now tighten the noose hard around the PTI’s neck.

The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.