Imprisonment of Istanbul mayor opens the gateway to full-blown authoritarianism in Turkey

Although it had been months in the making, it nevertheless came as a tremendous shock, marking the crossing of a threshold into classical authoritarianism.

On March 19, around 100 policemen, operating under the instructions of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), arrested the popular Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, and imprisoned him on March 23—the day he was to be announced as the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential candidate. The CHP is the social democratic party founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of Türkiye.

Like numerous other opposition mayors, for months İmamoğlu has faced a series of scurrilous criminal charges, both absurd in nature and completely bereft of merit or evidence. As if to drive home the politically motivated basis of this arrest, the authorities also detained around 100 of İmamoğlu’s colleagues and advisors, and unlawfully seized control of his family companies, effectively expropriating his assets.

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The ruling AKP is simply reading the room, and that it feels like the timing is in its favour to avoid international pushback and condemnation over this illegal arrest of his threatening competitor.

Now it is up to us to prove this perception wrong. This is in fact a watershed event for Türkiye’s future trajectory and demands an immediate and coordinated international response.

İmamoğlu, who has never lost an election to Erdoğan’s AKP candidates in four consecutive elections, has been methodically targeted since his historic victory in Istanbul’s 2019 mayoral race. After the Supreme Election Council controversially annulled his initial narrow win, İmamoğlu returned to crush his opponent by more than 800,000 votes in the rerun election — a humiliating rebuke to AKP’s former political stronghold. That democratic mandate has now been effectively nullified through a politically motivated detention, followed by the jailing of opponents and their replacement with government-appointed crony administrators.

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The timing is no coincidence. The AKP is weakening and Turkish voters are indicating that their time is up. İmamoğlu’s arrest follows CHP’s sweeping wins in the 2024 local elections — their first nationwide popular vote win since 1977 — which saw the opposition party capture 35 provincial capitals to the AKP’s 32. Most tellingly, just one day before his detention, Istanbul University suddenly annulled İmamoğlu’s university diploma, which would disqualify him from presidential candidacy.

This is not an isolated incident but part of a systematic campaign to eliminate political opposition. Since October 2024, authorities have detained or arrested dozens of opposition figures, including the leader of the nationalist Victory Party, journalists, reputable business leaders, and even the president of the CHP’s youth branch. Most striking of these were the arrests of five democratically elected district mayors in Istanbul, a city of 39 districts. In two of these municipalities, the government appointed a crony administrator.

The charges range from corruption and “insulting public officials” to alleged terrorist links — the same baseless accusations and the witch hunt now leveled against İmamoğlu and 105 other CHP figures.

This authoritarian turn comes at a critical geopolitical moment. Türkiye, with NATO’s second-largest standing army and a robust defense industry, is viewed as an essential partner as Europe strengthens its security posture. The Trump administration’s return to the White House, with its well-documented admiration for strongman leaders, has likely accelerated this crackdown. I was in New Delhi for the Raisina Dialogue, where it was observed that authoritarian regimes are on the rise globally.

The international community faces a stark choice: Will it prioritize Türkiye’s strategic value at the expense of democratic principles, or will it take meaningful action to defend the rule of law in this vital NATO member state?

The economic implications are equally significant. International investors and creditors recognize the inherent instability of authoritarian governance, and the lira is once again weakening following the arrest of İmamoğlu. Foreign businesses may increasingly question the wisdom of investment in a country where political whims override institutional integrity.

Europe holds significant leverage through Türkiye’s desire to upgrade its customs union with the EU, though AKP will likely counter, yet again, with the threat of allowing millions of refugees to cross into Europe. Nevertheless, European leaders must make clear that democratic backsliding carries concrete consequences for Türkiye’s international relationships and economic ambitions.

The United States, despite the Trump administration’s likely disinclination to criticise the Turkish leadership, has much more to gain by taking a firm stand on principle, as this conduct ultimately threatens NATO’s cohesion and regional stability, and weakens Europe’s ability to transition to a self-sustaining model of defence.

The AKP is openly gambling on the changing world order, but they are far over their skis. İmamoğlu’s imprisonment is not merely a domestic Turkish matter but a test of the international community’s commitment to democratic principles.

They may feel like it is their moment to quietly hide the crackdown. But a sharp rebuke of their immoral violations of the constitution would resonate powerfully among 85 million citizens who still believe in the future of their country.

Bilal Bilici is a Member of Parliament, representing Adana province in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye from the CHP. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.