How Yahya Sinwar’s killing is a milestone but not a game changer for Israel

The killing of Hamas’s top leader, Yahya Sinwar, who commanded military and political power, by the Israeli forces could be a pivotal milestone in the ongoing war. The Israeli Defence Forces and Israel Security Agency said their operations in recent weeks in southern Gaza restricted his movement and “led to his elimination”. However, taking into account the devastating attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed nearly 1,200 Israelis, it is necessary to state that the radicalisation of the situation remains high and the war does not indicate an endgame. Thus, the assassination of Sinwar does not appear to be a game changer in resolving the Israel-Gaza war and may not ring the bells for a new and more decisive era of change.

The killing of Sinwar can be considered one more example of Israel’s selective efforts to dismantle and demoralise the organisation from within, but the question of what is going to happen in Gaza after that is still open. Israel and Hamas, regardless of the destruction and mayhem, seem more than willing to press on the conflict.

Credentials of Yahya Sinwar

Sinwar was a key Hamas icon and Israel’s most wanted terrorist who became one of the most influential leaders of the movement since it was founded in 1987. His active planning and participation in terrorist attacks on Israel and loyalty to the cause of Palestine made him one of the most wanted figures on Israel’s elimination list.

Yahya Sinwar was sentenced to four life sentences in 1989 for his role in killing Palestinian informers and two Israeli soldiers. He was imprisoned in Israel for more than 20 years before being released in 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange. This only helped him to bolster his position with Hamas, especially the military wing of the organisation. He became a powerful hardliner who prioritised military confrontation with Israel over diplomacy.

Sinwar was the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023, attacks. These coordinated attacks signified one of the deadliest tragedies in the history of this nation, as over 1,200 Israeli lives were lost in a single day and within a few hours. For Israel, Sinwar became public enemy number one and to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli military officials, referring to him as a “dead man walking”. His elimination, after a year of intense military operations aimed at dismantling Hamas’s hardliner hierarchy, has been viewed by some as a significant turning point in this ongoing war. It marks a significant blow to Hamas and a psychological victory for Israel.

Implications of Sinwar’s Killing

From the Israeli point of view, the assassination of Sinwar is a strategic message and a symbolic action to demoralise both Hamas and Hezbollah. Israeli Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant said in a statement, “This is a clear message to all of our enemies—the IDF will reach anyone who attempts to harm the citizens of Israel or our security forces, and we will bring you to justice.” Netanyahu’s political position gets another boost after the assassinations of Hezbollah’s leadership, consolidating his stronghold after initial political volatility.

Sinwar’s assassination also has the potential to disrupt Hamas’s command and control system in the short term. He was one of the most experienced and active leaders of the organisation, who displayed the ability to consolidate various factions and coordinate actions against Israel. Furthermore, Sinwar’s role in orchestrating the October 7 attacks made him a symbol of defiance against Israel. His death could temporarily demoralise Hamas’s base or melt down its military actions for some time. Israel is ‘moving the lawn’ on the Hamas front as it focuses on the more active front of Hezbollah and Iran.

But the strategic debate remains whether his demise will make any significant difference in the Israel-Gaza confrontation. In the past, eliminating key Hamas leaders did not lead to the establishment of peace and the end of conflict. As much as these killings may depose Hamas for a short while, the killings lead to the propelling of other leaders in the organisation, each of them taking a harder line than the other.

Ceasefire Chances

One school of thought says that Sinwar’s killing could open up the possibility for political dialogues leading to a ceasefire. Sinwar was seen as an impediment to a ceasefire deal, and his elimination could reopen opportunities. But for this to succeed, these ideas need to be translated into a pragmatic plan that creates the conditions for ending the war and rebuilding Gaza. It also needs to include a role for the Palestinian Authority (PA) and create a credible pathway to ending the broader conflict, shifting the Palestinian balance of power away from Hamas. The leaders the world over have reiterated the need for military actions to cease and a new political solution in Gaza that might be acceptable to all parties.

Ironically, even the international community has failed to successfully mediate the conflict. Over the past, several peace proposals and ceasefire agreements have been brokered, yet none have addressed the underlying causes of the conflict or provided a path to a sustainable two-state solution. The killing of Yahya Sinwar does not change this reality.

Uncertain Future

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government celebrated the death of Sinwar as the “beginning of the end” but made clear that the war is not over: “The mission ahead of us is still unfinished." The moot question is: Will Sinwar’s death renew hopes for a ceasefire and mellow Israel’s appetite for the war till the end? The truth is, it may be a tactical victory for Israel but is unlikely to be a turning point in the war.

Despite various Israeli operations targeting the group, Hamas has remained in control of Gaza and exercised political control of parts of the Palestinians. The assassination of Yahya Sinwar is unlikely to alter this picture. Hamas is not based on one leader because its power lies under several wings and its political bureau. The group remains committed to armed resistance against Israel and the creation of a Palestinian state. The military intervention and aerial bombardments of specific military objectives and assassinations have weakened Hamas but not destroyed it or ended the conflict. For Hamas, any talks with Israel would be seen as a betrayal of its core principles. For Israel, negotiating with a group that refuses to recognise its right to exist is equally untenable.

Sinwar was seen as an impediment to a ceasefire deal, and his elimination could reopen opportunities. Yet without a comprehensive strategy, the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict will only bring about more destruction and the loss of innocent lives. As a result, the conflict remains locked in a zero-sum game, with both sides continuing to prioritise military objectives over diplomatic solutions.

The author is former Director General Mechanised Forces. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.