How voters defied poll pundits to give Trump a cake walk to Oval Office

As India slept in the night, the United States of America, after one of the most tempestuous, raucous, and divisive campaigns in its history, voted in the general election to elect its 47th president. It is instructive to note that even before the polling started on election day, millions of voters—81,937,982 as per the AP—had already exercised their voting rights either in person or by mail in the early polling in different states.

Donald Trump has been projected as the winner of the US presidential elections by various publications and has been congratulated by various leaders around the world, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

America’s tryst with history

This election was America’s tryst with history. The return of Donald Trump to the White House means that he would be the only second president in the 250 years of the United States of America to occupy the Oval House two non-consecutive times after Grover Cleveland, who was the 22nd and 24th POTUS. Contrarily, had Vice President Kamala Harris won, she would have been the first woman President of America.

Voting as it happened

The conduct of voting in the US, like in the past, was complicated because the elections there were conducted by local authorities within each state duly adhering to the local, state, and federal laws and guided by the spirit of the Constitution.

India over the past 27 years has perfected voting using electronic voting machines. Contrarily, the US, technologically the most advanced nation, remains in the grip of a complex manual system. Intriguingly, in 2006, about 31 per cent of registered voters were living in areas that used some form of paperless electronic voting. That number is expected to have dwindled to about 5 per cent, according to data from Verified Voting, a US non-profit tracking voting machine technology.

Here goes the way Americans are likely to have voted:

One, Hand-Marked Paper Ballots: As per “Verified Voting”, nearly 70 per cent of registered voters live in jurisdictions that primarily use hand-marked paper ballots. Voters fill in an oval or square next to their preferred candidate’s name.

Two, Ballot Marking Devices (BMDs): Approximately 25 per cent of voters live in jurisdictions that use electronic voting marking devices. Though BMDs are digital devices, they produce a proper paper record of votes, which are used in counting.

Three, Direct Recording Electronic Voting (DREs): A tiny 5 per cent of voters live in jurisdictions where they cast their votes. Voters cast their votes using a direct recording electronic voting system, with which voters press a button or touchscreen to cast their votes, which then go directly into the computer system. In 2020, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas used DRE machines. It will take a while to know the 2024 numbers.

While in some states DREs leave no paper trail, in others, some DRE systems are connected to a Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail printer, which produces a paper record of each vote that the voters can confirm before their vote is recorded in the computer.

Voters stun pollsters

Almost all the opinion polls leading to the election day as well as the exit polls predicted a neck-to-neck race for Trump and Harris both nationally as well as in key swing states. But voters with their verdict seem to have stunned pollsters of all hues as Trump seems to be cruising to the victory. Likewise, Republicans are dominating the race in elections for House of Representatives, Senate, and the election of Governors.

Pathway to be the president

In the US presidential elections, it is not the one who secures maximum popular votes who becomes the president. The fate of presidential candidates is decided by the Electoral College votes, and a candidate who wins 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes becomes president.

There have been five presidents in US history who have won the presidency without winning the popular vote, with the most recent being Donald Trump in 2016. Hillary Clinton in that election won over 2.8 million more votes than Trump nationwide, but she lost enough key states to be defeated in the Electoral College, 306 to 232.

But this time Trump seems to be the winner both with regards to the Electoral College votes as well as popular votes, leaving Kamala Harris far behind.

Winner takes it all

Interestingly, though the US has 50 states, when it comes to presidential elections, some states matter more than others. There are two types of states—“safe states” that predictably vote for one or the other of the established parties, and there are a handful of states dubbed “swing states” that often swing between the two parties—the Republican and the Democrat.

Though “safe states” reliably vote for one party or the other, “swing states” are often a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican candidates, and typically the presidential battle is won or lost in the swing states.

This year, seven of the key swing states—Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10)—are thought to hold the keys to the White House.

At the end, it all boiled down to securing 270 Electoral College votes. It is for garnering these votes that both Trump and Harris spent most time, resources, and campaign funds in the key swing states. But voters defying poll pundits seem to have stunningly returned Donald Trump to the Oval Office.

Race is called

All other prominent media agencies, CNN, The New York Times, and the Washington Post too, have accepted the reality; it will be Trump all the way. In fact, as per the predictions of the New York Times, Trump may end up winning 312 Electoral College votes, while Harris will win a maximum of 226.

But here comes the bold call of the race. Fox News Channel, the most watched television news channel in America for more than 22 consecutive years, has emerged as the first to make the call, “Donald J Trump shall be the 47th president of the United States of America.”

The conservative AP waited for few more hours after Fox News to finally “call the race”. But AP too has now announced that with 277 Electoral College votes, Donald Trump has been elected the 47th president of the United States, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept the defeat four year ago, supposedly sparked a violent insurrection at the US Capitol, was convicted of felony charges and survived two assassination attempts.

Curtain down, but well run

The above means it is a curtain down for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party, which was hoping to install the first woman president in the White House. But I still call it well run, Harris, because it was an unequal fight. She not only had to combat the anti-incumbency but hardly had a few weeks to make her case, while Trump was in campaign mode for at least nine years. Clearly, despite coming close to it twice in 2016 and 2024, America will need to wait more to choose its first woman president.

Advantage to Republicans

The 2024 General Elections, apart from electing president and vice president, also assume salience because it was decided how easy or how difficult it would be for the next president to govern because, along with the president, 469 members of Congress—the 435 member House of Representatives and just over one-third of the 100-member Senate—were also to be elected.

Very much like the race for the president, here too it looks like the winner takes it all; it is a clear advantage for the Republican Party in the election for House of Representatives, Senate, and Governors. Here is how it goes:

One, the Senate—in the 100-member Senate, the Republicans have already seized control with 52 members. Democrats are at 42 with 6 races yet to be called.

Two, the House—with 57 races yet to be called—the Republican Party leads with 198 as against 180 of Democrats. Though the race may go to wire, the House too may go the Republican way.

Three, Governors—the race for Governors is likely to end closer, with Republicans likely to end with 27 and Democrats with 23 duly accounting for those already in the office.

The Victory Lap

It was supposed to be an excruciatingly difficult election for Donald J Trump, but he has made it.

His lead seems to be unassailable because he has already both in Electoral College votes (277 votes already in bag and likely to cross 300) as well as popular votes [51 per cent as against 47.5 per cent of Harris].

In retrospect, the election results seem to be a cake walk for Trump.

Unsurprisingly then, true to his spirit, he has taken the victory lap in Florida with a speech to his supporters. “We’re going to fix everything about our country. We made history for a reason tonight,” he said. “It is now clear that we’ve achieved the most incredible political thing.”

What Next

Clearly against all predictions, Trump has improved on his performance from 2020 in both red states and blue states. He has flipped Georgia and Pennsylvania. Alaska, which has not voted for a Democrat in 60 years, alone would have put him over the top.

Waiting in the wings

Now it is time for the victory parades and waiting in the wings for the new king because the results shall be officially announced not before January 6. According to the electoral law, the discrepancies in the results in states, if any, shall be likely resolved by December 11. Thereafter, the electors will meet in their state capitals on December 17 and cast their votes for the president and vice president. Finally, the US Congress will convene on January 6, 2025, to formally count the electoral votes and officially declare the winner. And the inauguration ceremony for the president shall take place in Washington on January 20, 2025.

Trump 2.0

Before the election, it was projected that if Trump wins the presidency, it will be a cataclysmic doomsday scenario for America and the world. I posit nothing like that will happen. After the initial convulsions and tremors, it will be business as usual except that many things will change in America domestically, and it will be a brand new Trump-way to internationalism.

Given the last two years of flip-flops of the Biden administration with regards to American relationship with India, my take is that given the strategic and geopolitical importance of the resurgent India in the new world order, the second term of Donald Trump shall be much better for India than what the first term of Kamala Harris could have been.

In Part II of the piece, I take up from here and make a balanced scorecard of why and how Donald Trump won and what its implications are for the US, India, and the world at large.

The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenario. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.