How Trump’s tariffs are a bump, not a blockade

Picture this: It’s a humid evening in Delhi, the kind where the air hangs heavy with the scent of street-side chaiwallahs brewing their spicy concoction. Families huddle around flickering TV screens, debating everything from Operation Sindoor’s latest century to the price of petrol. But suddenly, the news flashes – Donald Trump, that larger-than-life American uncle with the golden hair, slaps a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods. “India is our friend,” he says, but then adds the kicker: penalties for cozying up to Russia. It’s like inviting someone to a Diwali party and then charging them extra for the sweets.

As an Indian at heart, we know our country has weathered Mughal invasions, British Raj, and even those endless monsoon floods. But this? This is Trump ka tariff tamasha—a spectacle that’s got everyone from Mumbai stock traders to Kerala farmers scratching their heads. Will it burn our pockets in the short run? What does Trump mean by “not much trade in the past”, and what’s the script for the future? And hey, could this actually help dethrone the mighty US dollar, especially here in Bharat? Let’s dive in, sip by sip, like a proper desi chai session—no sugar-coating, just straight facts right on your forehead.

The Backstory

Let’s rewind the reel a bit, Bollywood-style. Donald Trump, back in the White House as of early 2025, has made tariffs his signature move – think of it as his version of a Shah Rukh Khan blockbuster, full of drama and high stakes. On July 30, 2025, he announced via his Truth Social platform (because where else?) that starting August 1, 2025, all imports from India would face a 25 per cent tariff. Why India? Trump called us a “friend” but lambasted our “far too high” tariffs on American goods and those “obnoxious non-monetary trade barriers.” Add to that our continued purchases of Russian oil and military gear amid the Ukraine conflict, and boom – penalties on top.

This isn’t Trump’s first rodeo with India on trade. Remember 2019? He pulled India’s preferential trade status under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), hitting exports like chemicals and auto parts. Fast-forward to 2025, and it’s escalated. Trump’s broader agenda is “reciprocal trade”—if you tariff us, we’ll tariff you back, harder. He’s already imposed 10 per cent baseline tariffs on most countries under emergency powers, but India gets the special 25 per cent treatment, plus extras for Russia ties. It’s part of his America First playbook: wipe out trade deficits, boost US manufacturing, and use tariffs as leverage for deals.

From an Indian lens, this feels like a plot twist from a Bollywood film—we thought the Modi-Trump bromance (remember “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad?) meant smooth sailing. But no, Trump cannot be trusted; geopolitics isn’t a feel-good movie. India’s trade surplus with the US hit $36 billion in 2024, exporting everything from pharma to textiles, while importing tech and aircraft. Trump sees this as unfair, especially with India’s average tariffs at 17 per cent versus the US’s 3 per cent. And our Russian oil buys? We’ve ramped them up to 40 per cent of imports post-Ukraine war, saving billions in discounted crude – a smart desi bargain, but it irks Uncle Sam.

Short-Term Shock

Let’s not mince words—this tariff isn’t a gentle pat on the back; it’s a solid slap to our exporters. Internal estimates from India’s commerce ministry suggest about 10 per cent of our $120 billion annual exports to the US could be affected in the July-September quarter alone if the 25 per cent sticks. That’s roughly $3-4 billion in extra costs, passed on to American buyers or absorbed by Indian firms, squeezing margins like the last drop of juice from a lemon.

Key sectors in the firing line? Textiles and apparel—our cotton kurtas and jeans might cost more in Walmart, leading to lost orders as buyers shift to Vietnam or Bangladesh. Pharma, India’s pride (we supply 40 per cent of US generics), could see hikes in drug prices stateside, but with inelastic demand, it might weather better—though smaller exporters could fold. Auto parts and chemicals? Hit hard, with potential job losses in Tamil Nadu and Gujarat hubs. And don’t forget IT services—while not directly tariffed, US firms might cut outsourcing to India amid economic jitters, affecting Bengaluru’s silicon valleys.

Economically, expect rupee volatility—it dipped 0.5 per cent on announcement day, pushing inflation up as imported goods (hello, iPhones) get pricier. Stock markets? Sensex wobbled, with export-heavy firms like TCS and Reliance taking a knock. But here’s the Indian resilience bit: experts call it a “temporary measure” during negotiations. India’s growth story—projected at 7 per cent GDP for 2025—won’t derail overnight; it’s more like a speed bump on the expressway. Farmers in Punjab might grumble over higher input costs, but “Make in India” could get a boost as we pivot to domestic manufacturing. Short-term pain? Yes, like a spicy vindaloo hangover. But we Indians are pros at jugaad—improvising our way out.

And the penalties for Russian ties? That’s the wildcard. India buys S-400 missiles and cheap oil from Putin bhai—tariffs could add 100 per cent extras on those deals, per Trump’s threats. Short-term: higher energy bills if we diversify, but we’ve already cut Russian oil reliance from 40 per cent to 30 per cent this year. It’s a tightrope—balancing US pressure without alienating Moscow.

What It Spells for the Future

Now, the intriguing part: Trump keeps saying, “While India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their tariffs are far too high.” Historically, he’s half-right. US-India trade was peanuts pre-1990s liberalisation—think $5 billion in 1990 versus $190 billion today. India’s Licence Raj era had sky-high tariffs (over 100 per cent on some goods) and bureaucracy that made doing business feel like a never-ending saas-bahu serial. Trump harks back to that, exaggerating for effect—“little business” ignores the boom since 2000, when IT, pharma, and diamonds flooded US markets. But his point? India’s barriers persist: high duties on Harley bikes (which Trump loves complaining about) and data localization rules that irk Big Tech.

For the future? This is Trump’s negotiation blackmail—a threat to force a deal. He’s hinted at 20-25 per cent tariffs as leverage, saying the “deal with India is not finalized.” What does he want? Lower Indian tariffs on US farm goods, easier market access for American firms, and less Russia hugging. India eyes a mini-trade deal by fall 2025, restoring GSP and cutting duties on US nuts and apples.

Future outlook: If talks succeed, tariffs drop; if not, escalation. But India’s playbook? Diversify – FTAs with the UK, EU, and ASEAN to reduce US dependence (currently 16 per cent of exports). Long-term, this pushes Aatmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India), turning tariffs into opportunity, like how we bounced back from Covid-19 with PLI schemes.

Trump’s vision? A world where trade bows to America—but for India, it’s about emerging as a global player, not a sidekick. As Modi ji might say, “Sabka saath, sabka vikas”—development for all, on our terms.

Tariffs as a catalyst

How do these tariffs chip away at the US dollar’s throne? The dollar has ruled since Bretton Woods in 1944—60 per cent of global reserves, 80 per cent of trade invoiced in greenbacks. But Trump’s tariffs? They’re like throwing petrol on the de-dollarization fire. By weaponising trade and sanctions, he alienates allies, pushing them towards alternatives. Economists warn: tariffs disrupt dollar-based systems, accelerating a multipolar currency

Globally, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is the vanguard. Trump threatened 100 per cent tariffs on BRICS for ditching the dollar. Result? It backfired—BRICS expanded in 2024, now discussing a common currency or blockchain-based system. Russia-China trade is 78 per cent non-dollar; they’ve bypassed SWIFT with their own systems. Tariffs make countries sell US assets—China dumped $860 billion in Treasuries post-threats, weakening the dollar.

For India? We’re the cautious player in this chess game. We’ve resisted full de-dollarization in BRICS (ex-RBI governor called a joint currency a “non-starter”). But Trump’s tariffs nudge us further. We’ve settled trade in rupees with Russia (oil), UAE (gold), and Nepal. Post-tariffs, expect more: rupee-yuan swaps with China, or joining Russia’s SPFS alternative to SWIFT. India’s forex reserves are diversifying—gold up 20 per cent in 2024, yuan holdings rising.

How does it reduce hegemony? Tariffs erode trust in the dollar as a safe haven—if the US can slap duties arbitrarily, why hold dollars? For India, it means lower remittance costs (no dollar conversion fees) and energy security via local currencies. But risks: rupee volatility if global acceptance lags. Still, it’s empowering: from dollar-dependent to a rupee powerhouse, aligning with our multipolar vision. Trump’s actions might just hasten the dollar’s twilight, making way for a world where currencies coexist like spices in a thali—diverse and balanced.

Wrapping Up

As the chai cools and the debate rages on, one thing’s clear: Trump’s tariffs are a bump, not a blockade. Short-term? Pain for exporters, market jitters, but our 7 per cent growth engine chugs on. Trump’s “little trade” jab? A nod to history, but the future’s about negotiation—lower barriers, diversified partners, and a stronger ‘aatmanirbhar’ spirit. And dollar hegemony? These tariffs are the unintended push towards a multipolar wallet, with India leading the rupee charge in BRICS.

“>We Indians have a saying: “Barish mein bheegne se dar nahi lagta, sahab, chhata toh hai hi.” (We’re not afraid of getting wet in the rain; we have an umbrella.) Our umbrella? Innovation, diplomacy, and that unshakeable desi grit. Trump can bring the tariffs—we’ll brew stronger chai and emerge shining. Jai Hind!

The author is a columnist, Group Captain (retd) and a former fighter pilot of the IAF. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.