How the race of artificial intelligence will define Cold War 2.0

One of the greatest mystics and thinkers of the world ever, Jiddu Krishnamurti began to use the term ‘artificial intelligence’ in the early 1980s. As long ago as the 1950s, he spoke of the human brain being programmed like a computer and, before that, thought of being mechanical. As the use of computers grew, Krishnamurti, as ever, reflected the phenomenon to ourselves, asking vital questions. What would be our place if computers and AI could do most of what we could do faster and more efficiently? What is the future of humanity? What is the nature and place of thought? These questions, posed by Jiddu Krishnamurti, are more relevant than ever as the world finds itself embroiled in a new kind of geopolitical struggle that some are calling the “AI Cold War 2.0”.

The race for artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy has become the defining battleground of the 21st century, with the United States and China vying for dominance in a technology poised to reshape the global order. This strategic rivalry highlights the contest for economic and technological superiority and mirrors the ideological and geopolitical tensions some experts labelled “AI Cold War 2.0”.

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China’s Rapid Ascent in AI

China’s transformation from a follower to a leader in AI is a story of ambition, strategy, and state-backed investments. Initiatives like the Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan (2017) and Made in China 2025 reflect Beijing’s determination to lead the AI revolution by 2030. This vision is supported by a centralised approach that mobilises resources across government, academia, and industry, enabling rapid advancements in AI research and application.

Scholars like Chao Min and Yi Zhao from Nanjing University emphasise the role of mimetic isomorphism, where latecomers emulate global leaders while gradually innovating. This strategy, combined with weak data privacy regulations and vast data collection capabilities, has propelled China’s AI sector to produce the highest volume of research publications globally since 2014. However, challenges remain in the quality of research, semiconductor technology, and breakthrough innovations.

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The US is a Longstanding AI Leader

The United States has historically dominated AI development with its robust ecosystem of public-private partnerships, academic excellence, and pioneering tech companies like Google, OpenAI, and Microsoft. Government initiatives, including the National AI Initiative Act (2020), have further strengthened the US’ position as a global AI leader.

The decentralised nature of the US research environment encourages innovation, allowing collaboration between government agencies, academic institutions, and private enterprises. However, growing competition from China and challenges in scaling AI education and workforce training underscore the US’ need to maintain its edge.

The “AI Cold War 2.0” as a New Geopolitical Paradigm

The concept of an “AI Cold War 2.0,” coined by renowned Canadian lawyer and AI strategist George Takach, captures the deepening rivalry between the US and China in the realm of AI. Unlike the ideological confrontation of the original Cold War, the AI Cold War 2.0 revolves around technological supremacy and its implications for global influence.

George argues that AI has become the central tool for asserting geopolitical dominance. The race to develop advanced AI technologies, including autonomous systems, generative models, and surveillance tools, reflects a broader competition to control critical sectors such as defence, finance, and communication. AI Cold War 2.0 also extends to the standards and governance of AI, with the US promoting ethical frameworks rooted in democratic values, while China advocates a state-centric approach that appeals to authoritarian regimes.

This AI-driven rivalry has created a polarised world, with nations aligning themselves with either the US or China based on technological dependencies, economic interests, and ideological affinities. For instance, emerging economies in Africa and Southeast Asia increasingly find themselves at the crossroads of this AI competition, facing choices that will shape their digital futures.

Global Impacts of AI Cold War 2.0

The AI Cold War is profoundly reshaping global politics, economics, and society. Economically, the race for AI leadership is driving innovation while also creating inequalities. Developing nations, lacking resources and infrastructure, risk becoming dependent on AI technologies controlled by the US or China. This dynamic exacerbates the digital divide and limits the autonomy of smaller states.

In terms of security, AI is transforming warfare and intelligence, with both superpowers leveraging AI for cyber operations, autonomous weapons, and surveillance systems. The militarisation of AI has heightened global tensions, increasing the risk of conflicts driven by technological superiority.

At the societal level, the AI Cold War influences the discourse on privacy, human rights, and the ethical use of technology. The US’ emphasis on transparency and accountability contrasts sharply with China’s use of AI for mass surveillance and social control, creating a global debate on the future of AI governance.

The rivalry has also intensified competition over global standards for AI development. Institutions like the United Nations face challenges in mediating between the two powers, as their differing visions for AI governance shape international regulations.

Long-Term Trends and Convergence in AI Research

The rivalry between the US and China is reflected in long-term trends in AI research. Both nations have shown exponential growth in the volume of AI publications. A notable slowdown in China’s growth occurred between 2008 and 2009, coinciding with its publication volume matching that of the US.

Historically, China’s research focus lagged behind the US, often mirroring trends from previous years. This dynamic shifted around 2010, with China adopting a research portfolio that closely resembles that of the US, signalling its transition to a competitive and forward-looking approach. This convergence underscores the narrowing gap between the two AI superpowers.

What Lies Ahead?

The AI Cold War 2.0 is not just a technological race but a contest for shaping the future of global governance and societal values. While the US leads in innovation, China’s state-driven model and vast resources make it a formidable challenger. The stakes are high, as the rivalry will determine not only economic and military power but also the ethical framework within which AI operates.

For the rest of the world, navigating this polarised landscape requires careful diplomacy, collaboration, and investment in independent AI ecosystems. The international community must also prioritise the development of universal ethical guidelines to ensure AI remains a force for progress rather than division. As the US and China push the boundaries of AI, the world watches with a mix of awe and apprehension, understanding that the outcomes of this rivalry will define the 21st century.

Amal Chandra is an author, political analyst and columnist (Follow him on ‘X’ at @ens_socialis) and Prashanto Bagchi is an International Relations scholar at the JNU, New Delhi. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.