How state plunder and CPEC have made Balochistan Pakistan’s Achilles’ heel

The Balochistan Liberation Army’s (BLA) relentless campaign against Pakistani forces has thrust Pakistan’s largest yet most marginalised province into the spotlight of a deepening crisis. In the first half of 2025 alone, the BLA claimed responsibility for 286 attacks, resulting in over 697 Pakistani military personnel killed and significant territorial gains, including the seizure of 45 strategic locations.

In the past week, the BLA has launched a deadly assault on Pakistani security forces, killing 29 people in Quetta and Kalat. The attack targeted a bus reportedly carrying over 48 passengers, including Pakistani soldiers. This incident marks one of the deadliest strikes in recent months, pushing the military’s casualty count to its highest in the past six months.

These audacious operations, marked by sophisticated tactics and coordinated assaults on military infrastructure, signal a reinvigorated insurgency that challenges Pakistan’s sovereignty over its resource-rich western frontier. The BLA’s actions, including high-profile attacks like the Jaffar Express hijacking in March 2025, underscore a growing defiance rooted in decades of grievances—political exclusion, economic exploitation, and systemic human rights abuses.

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Balochistan, despite its vast reserves of gas, gold, and copper, remains Pakistan’s poorest region, with 70 per cent of its population living in multidimensional poverty. The province’s strategic significance, amplified by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has only intensified tensions, as Baloch nationalists view such projects as tools of external exploitation rather than local development. Pakistan’s heavy-handed military response, characterised by enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, has further alienated the Baloch, swelling the ranks of insurgent groups with educated youth and even women.

This escalating conflict exposes not only Pakistan’s failure to integrate Balochistan but also its inability to reconcile with a population demanding autonomy or independence. The BLA’s growing sophistication and public support signal a broader rejection of Islamabad’s authority, raising questions about the state’s capacity to maintain control over a region integral to its geopolitical ambitions. As the violence intensifies, the roots of this conflict—historical neglect, resource disputes, militarisation, and external influences—demand closer examination to understand why Pakistan’s grip on Balochistan is slipping.

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Historical Neglect and Broken Promises

The roots of the Pakistan-BLA conflict trace back to the forced annexation of Balochistan in 1948, when the princely state of Kalat was coerced into joining Pakistan despite its brief declaration of independence. This historical grievance set the stage for recurring rebellions, with five major uprisings since 1947, each driven by the Baloch people’s sense of betrayal. The Pakistani state’s early policies, such as the One-Unit scheme of 1955, which merged Balochistan into West Pakistan, stripped the region of its distinct identity and political agency.

These actions sowed seeds of distrust that have persisted for decades. Baloch nationalists argue that Islamabad’s promises of autonomy and development have consistently been broken, leaving the province politically marginalised. Despite constituting 44 per cent of Pakistan’s landmass, Balochistan holds only 5 per cent of its population and lacks proportional representation in federal institutions, with Punjabi elites dominating the bureaucracy. The dismissal of Balochistan’s provincial government in 1973, followed by a brutal four-year insurgency, further deepened this alienation.

Successive governments have failed to address these grievances, opting instead for cosmetic reforms or outright repression. The Baloch see their region’s strategic importance—bordering Iran and Afghanistan, with a coastline along the Arabian Sea—as a curse, exploited by the central government for geopolitical gain without reciprocal investment in local welfare. This historical neglect has created a fertile ground for the BLA’s narrative of resistance, framing their fight as a legitimate struggle against a state that has consistently failed to honour Balochistan’s sovereignty or aspirations for self-determination.

Economic Exploitation and the CPEC

Balochistan’s vast natural resources—gas, coal, gold, and copper—should have made it a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economic growth, yet the province remains mired in poverty. The central government’s exploitation of these resources, often without equitable benefit to the local population, has been a key driver of the BLA’s insurgency. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion infrastructure project linking China’s western region to Gwadar’s deep-sea port, has become a lightning rod for Baloch grievances. While CPEC is touted as a game-changer for Pakistan, Baloch nationalists view it as a symbol of external exploitation, with Chinese investments prioritising federal and foreign interests over local needs.

Militarised Repression Deepens Alienation

Pakistan’s response to Baloch dissent has relied heavily on militarisation, exacerbating the conflict and undermining its sovereignty over Balochistan. The Pakistani military’s “kill-and-dump” policy, involving enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, has targeted thousands of Baloch activists, students, and intellectuals since the early 2000s. Estimates suggest over 20,000 Baloch have gone missing, with bodies often found bearing torture marks, fuelling public outrage. Operations like the 2025 counterinsurgency campaign, involving drone strikes and mass arrests in Quetta and Mastung, have failed to quell the BLA’s momentum, instead radicalising more civilians.

The military’s heavy presence—over 50,000 troops stationed in Balochistan—creates a siege-like atmosphere, with checkpoints and raids disrupting daily life. This approach has alienated even moderate Baloch, who view it as collective punishment. The BLA’s recruitment of educated youth, including women, reflects this growing resentment, with groups like the BLA’s Majeed Brigade conducting suicide attacks against military targets in 2025.

Pakistan’s refusal to pursue political solutions, coupled with its reliance on force, has strengthened the BLA’s narrative of state oppression, eroding trust in federal authority. By prioritising security over dialogue, Pakistan has failed to address the root causes of unrest, allowing the BLA to gain legitimacy as defenders of Baloch rights. This militarised approach not only escalates the conflict but also exposes Pakistan’s inability to govern Balochistan effectively, weakening its claim to sovereignty.

External Influences and Geopolitical Stakes

Balochistan’s strategic location and resources have drawn external actors, complicating the Pakistan-BLA conflict and exposing vulnerabilities in Pakistan’s sovereignty. Bordering Iran and Afghanistan, with access to the Arabian Sea, Balochistan is a geopolitical hotspot. The CPEC has elevated its importance, with China investing heavily in Gwadar and energy projects.

Meanwhile, Iran’s concerns about Baloch militancy spilling across its border have led to joint military operations with Pakistan, further complicating the regional dynamic. The BLA’s reported ties to sanctuaries in Afghanistan, where porous borders allow training and arms flows, have emboldened its 2025 offensive, with 45 strategic locations seized.

These external factors expose Pakistan’s failure to secure Balochistan’s borders, undermining its territorial control. The involvement of global powers in CPEC amplifies local grievances, as Baloch nationalists frame their struggle as resistance to foreign-backed exploitation. Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese investment to stabilise its economy ties its hands, limiting its ability to address Baloch demands for fear of jeopardising CPEC.

This geopolitical entanglement, coupled with Pakistan’s inability to counter external influences or secure regional cooperation, has allowed the BLA to exploit fault lines, intensifying the conflict. The state’s focus on external threats over internal reconciliation highlights its failure to assert sovereignty through governance, leaving Balochistan a battleground for both local aspirations and global ambitions.

The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.