 "How return of Donald Trump as POTUS is bad news for Pakistan")
The return of Donald Trump as the US president is a bad news for Pakistan, as American strategy shifts uncomfortably and unpredictably fast.
Once indispensable for its geographic position near Afghanistan and the Islamic nuclear nation, Pakistan, is becoming less relevant for Trump and far more crucial for the CIA.
This shift underscores two principal motivations: the US will seek to undercut China on all fronts, and India will seek a bargain to undercut Pakistan.
Pakistan risks becoming a footnote. For Pakistan’s Chinese client, it’s a deer in the headlights moment. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is in Trump’s sights. Greater political instability in Balochistan is a given. The ‘belt’ could well become a ’noose’.
For the US to take on China meaningfully, it must provide India strategic depth and free-up capability. This involves a choice; India cannot seriously counterbalance China without a freed-up Western front.
In Trump’s new strategic geopolitical balance sheet, India is a valuable asset, while Pakistan is a manageable liability.
As financial pressure mounts, Pakistan’s economy appears vulnerable to an outsized reliance on external help. Pakistan has often been bailed out by the IMF, but Trump’s Washington will not be as accommodating. The IMF will no longer be the familiar lifeline to which Islamabad could turn without incurring painful structural reforms. The US basically has a strong influence over the IMF, and for Pakistan, this may be troublesome.
For the CIA, however, Pakistan’s importance is as acute as ever. Although Trump may deprioritise the nation on a broader diplomatic level, the agency understands that Pakistan, along with neighbouring Afghanistan, remains the breeding ground for extremist networks. Another major attack on American soil originating from this region would be catastrophic. Under Trump’s watch, the CIA is likely to turn to festering federal unrest in Pakistan.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsSo Balochistan teeters on the ranger’s edge. Trump’s campaign against Chinese influence could pour fuel on the Balochistan freedom fires. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects are criss-crossing Balochistan. Destabilising Balochistan disrupts Chinese supply lines and CPEC investments, indirectly serving America’s strategy.
The nuclear leverage
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal complicates this geopolitical chess game. It is the lone asset that assures its relevance. As Trump seeks to dismantle Chinese influence and embolden India, Pakistan’s military nuclear capability offers it some bargaining room.
In the end, Pakistan’s trajectory under Trump’s scrutiny resembles that of a misbehaving student finally summoned to the headmaster’s office. The familiar indulgence will be absent; America’s patience, for now, is thin. In Trump’s restructured Asia, Pakistan will have little choice but to “behave”—or risk being shown the door.
The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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