How recent Maldives parliamentary election results are a silver lining for India

In a clear endorsement of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s policies so far, the country voted his party’s People’s National Congress (PNC) to a two-third majority in the 93-member house in the latest parliamentary elections. With this win, Muizzu’s party now wields power both in the executive and the legislature, thereby allowing him to steer domestic and foreign policy with little opposition.

The development has heightened concerns in New Delhi as Muizzu ran a successful ‘India-Out’ campaign in the run-up to the presidential election last year. Since assuming the presidency, Muizzu has overturned the earlier government’s ‘India-First’ policy, replaced Indian military personnel based in the Maldives to maintain and operate the two helicopters and an aircraft with civilian technical staff from India, and vowed to send back the remaining Indian troops stationed in the country by May 10.

Additionally, he chose Beijing over New Delhi as the destination for his first state visit. That visit produced several agreements, including a deal on “military assistance” and training of Maldivian troops by China. But soon he ran into difficulties with his policies as the opposition, which commanded a majority in the parliament, sharply criticised his anti-India posture and even obstructed a few of his executive decisions, including the appointment of ministers. The people’s verdict in the recent general elections, however, indicates continued support for Muizzu’s politics.

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Needless to say, the results have upset the policy and strategic circles in New Delhi. But the outcome may not be entirely bad for India, however adversarial it may appear on the surface. Here are three key gains likely to emerge from India’s perspective.

Time to call the cards

For starters, the development will finally settle the debate and unveil the extent or limitations of Muizzu’s anti-India rhetoric or the bluff therein. The current dispensation in the island state is by far the staunchest critic of India to have risen to power. With control over the executive and the legislature, there’s fundamentally no restriction whatsoever that could be passed on as an excuse for deviating from the ‘India-Out’ policy.

Thus, if Muizzu continues to expand on his anti-India rhetoric, it would reveal the unknown of a largely known outcome, i.e., the extent to which Muizzu intends to push the Maldives away from India and closer to China. If anything, India can let go of the guesswork and grasp the depth of Muizzu’s threat for real.

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However, if the Maldivian President chooses to dial down his anti-India campaign, glimpses of which are apparent, the campaign will likely lose its appeal among the voters in subsequent elections. Until now, a moderation in anti-India policy could be justified owing to the lack of numbers in the parliament. But with the majority overturned in the PNC’s favour, there is little room to manoeuvre for Muizzu. Either way, India’s foreign policy will be better informed for the challenges ahead.

People-to-people ties

Secondly, the situation offers India an opportunity to work at the most basic level of its relationship with the Maldives and perhaps address the root cause of its discontent. It is evident from the developments so far that the ‘India-Out’ campaign resonated with the Maldivian population.

It is one thing for the political parties to shore up a narrative, but completely another for the masses to buy into it. Thus, it is worth deliberating the reasons that made the anti-India narrative a success among the electorate. With high-level state-to-state diplomacy sidelined of late, it is time for India to rekindle people-to-people diplomacy. Given the Maldives’ significant dependency on India for even the most basic needs such as drinking water, medicines, and medical treatment, it is perplexing that India lacks popular support and public goodwill on the neighbouring island.

People-centric diplomacy is less likely to be securitised by political parties and is also likely to deliver greater dividends. A case in point is India’s diplomatic successes in Afghanistan, where considerable goodwill earned over the years through people-centric diplomacy kept the bilateral relationship steady under Taliban 2.0 despite its known hostility towards India.

Predator or partner?

Finally, the outcome will offer insights into the seriousness of China’s commitment and preparedness to replace India on the subcontinent. Malé has lately run into economic troubles as its national debt has jumped to 113 per cent of its GDP. India and China are the two biggest creditors and account for more than 50 per cent of the island nation’s national debts. The IMF has warned that Malé faces a high risk of debt distress and might need external assistance.

Consequently, in a departure from the much-emphasised rhetoric, Muizzu called India its ‘closest ally’ while seeking debt relief. However, the Maldives owes $18 billion to the Chinese, which is more than double what it owes to India. And if Sri Lanka’s case is any precedent, Beijing will likely drag its feet in providing relief or assistance unless there’s some quid-pro-quo on offer. China’s response amidst the Maldives’ worsening fiscal situation will reveal whether it is prepared to commit beyond security issues.

Thus, to India’s benefit, the election results will likely answer the ultimate question of whether China-Maldives relations can overcome the constraints of geography that bind Male and New Delhi together.

The author is Research Analyst with the Takshashila Institution’s Indo-Pacific Studies Programme. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.