How radicalism in Bangladesh threatens India’s ‘Chicken Neck’

The circumstances under which the ouster of Sheikh Hasina has happened in our neighbouring country are not only a dark chapter in the history of Bangladesh but are also bad news for the whole of the Indian subcontinent. Bangladesh, run by the Awami League under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, used to be a friendly neighbour—a nation India could geopolitically rely on in matters of national security and cross-border diplomacy.

Under her leadership, Bangladesh also used to be a relatively safer place for its minorities, specifically Hindu minorities, that were always under threat from radical Islamist organisations such as Jamaat-e-Islami. The political landscape of Bangladesh has abruptly changed almost overnight; it has become a harbinger of death and destruction for its minorities and a forerunner of geopolitical trouble for Indian diplomacy.

Superficially, the story started with “student protests” demanding a rollback of a job quota given to the family members of war veterans, but within no time, the protests evolved into an anti-state march, and before you knew it, the government fell. One has to be bafflingly ignorant to buy the story of job quotas and student protests for two broad reasons: One, Bangladesh’s top court had already rolled back most of the controversial job quotas by July 20, a full 15 days before the Sheikh Hasina ouster. Second, why would a student protest categorically be hostile to the country’s non-Muslim minorities? Soon enough, the cat was out of the bag. Rolling back the controversial job quotas did nothing to quell the protests; if anything, they were further intensified.

Ousted former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina later revealed that she could have remained in power had she surrendered the sovereignty over Saint Martin Island in the Bay of Bengal to the United States. This was perhaps the most important revelation that came after Sheikh Hasina landed in India as a refugee former Prime Minister. However, the US maintaining its military bases around the world, specifically in geopolitically sensitive areas, is not news for anybody, nor is it surprising that it destabilised a whole nation and its polity to achieve those aims. In fact, one can confidently bet that any nation in the world undergoing anarchy and turmoil in the name of “democratic protests” has the US to thank for it in some way or form.

The realities and historical memories of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh make this development much more sinister and concerning. After a painful and bloodied partition of India on communal lines, tensions had already started simmering between East and West Pakistan. The reasons included deep-seated cultural, linguistic, and ethnic differences between the two regions. East Pakistan, predominantly Bengali-speaking, had a distinct cultural identity that clashed with the Urdu-speaking, Punjabi-dominated leadership of West Pakistan. Economic disparities further exacerbated these tensions, as East Pakistan, despite being more populous and economically significant due to its jute exports, received far less government investment and development aid.

The centralisation of political power in West Pakistan, coupled with the marginalisation of East Pakistani voices, led to widespread feelings of alienation and resentment. These tensions were further inflamed by the central government’s refusal to recognise Bengali as an official language and by the harsh repression of any attempts by East Pakistan to assert its autonomy or demand fair representation. All these factors created a growing sense of injustice and fuelled the desire for independence in East Pakistan.

India’s role in helping Bangladesh attain its independence was not just an act of geopolitical strategy but a moral imperative in the face of unspeakable atrocities committed by the Pakistani military. The Pakistani army, in a ruthless bid to suppress the Bengali independence movement, unleashed a campaign of terror that can only be described as genocidal.

Between March and December 1971, approximately 300,000 to 3,000,000 Bengali civilians were brutally slaughtered, a bloodbath that stained the soul of the subcontinent. Women were not spared either; an estimated 200,000 to 400,000 Bengali women were subjected to horrific acts of sexual violence, used as instruments of war by a barbaric regime desperate to cling to power. Entire villages were razed to the ground, and millions were forced to flee, creating one of the largest refugee crises of the 20th century.

Faced with these atrocities, India could not stand idly by. Under the leadership of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, India provided crucial military, diplomatic, and humanitarian support to the Bengali liberation forces, known as the Mukti Bahini. Indian armed forces launched a decisive intervention in December 1971, culminating in the rapid defeat of the Pakistani military and the birth of Bangladesh. The intervention was not just a strategic victory for India; it was a liberation of a people who had been subjected to unimaginable cruelty and oppression. India’s involvement ensured that the Pakistani army’s campaign of terror was brought to an end and that a new nation could emerge from the ashes of genocide.

Fast forward to 2024, and it is both mind-bogglingly tragic and ironic that a significant portion of the same Bengali population, who were once literally rescued from the brutal, repressive clutches of the Pakistani Army by India, is now being manipulated by the very forces that once sought their annihilation. Orchestrated by the Pakistani Army and ISI, this segment is now pursuing an alarming anti-India agenda, betraying the legacy of their own hard-won independence and the sacrifices made to secure it.

Vandals smashed the statue of the surrender of Pakistani forces to Indian soldiers to bits; the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre, which promoted cultural exchange between India and Bangladesh, was damaged in the violence. and the statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, the Father of the Nation in Bangladesh, was also desecrated and brought down.

The ouster of Sheikh Hasina also unleashed a wave of terror on the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, plunging them into a nightmare of violence and persecution. In the aftermath of Hasina’s resignation, Islamist extremists, emboldened by the political chaos, have carried out systematic attacks against the Hindu community. In just a matter of days, over 200 attacks were reported across 52 districts, leaving Hindu homes, businesses, and temples in ruins. The violence has been marked by arson, looting, and even the murder of community leaders, with the death toll rising alarmingly. This eruption of violence is not just an attack on a religious minority; it is an assault on the very principles that Bangladesh once prided itself on.

Bangladesh’s interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, condemned attacks on minority communities in the violence-hit nation, terming them “heinous”, and urged the youth to protect all Hindu, Christian, and Buddhist families from harm.

However, with the possibility of ISI and Jamaat-e-Islami effectively steering the government in Bangladesh, India faces an ominous reality: managing not just one hostile neighbour in the form of Pakistan but another emerging on its eastern flank. The security implications are dire. A Bangladesh aligned with Pakistan on its northeastern border could open up a new front of instability, potentially enabling cross-border terrorism, illegal arms trafficking, and the infiltration of radical elements into India’s sensitive northeastern states.

The strategic Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as the “Chicken’s Neck”, which connects mainland India to its northeastern territories, could become increasingly vulnerable. This scenario would force us to divide our military and intelligence resources, stretching them thin at a time when the security apparatus is already burdened by challenges on the western front.

India must tread cautiously, fortifying its borders and reinforcing diplomatic channels, while preparing for a long-term strategic contest with an emboldened, Pakistan-backed government in Dhaka. The stakes have never been higher, and complacency is simply not an option.

The writer takes special interest in history, culture and geopolitics. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.