How President Raisi’s death will impact Iran’s foreign policy amid wars in Gaza and Ukraine

Along with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, East Azerbaijan Governor Malek Rahmati and senior cleric Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem were killed in a fatal helicopter crash on May 19. The tragedy occurred when they were returning to Tehran after inaugurating a newly built Qiz Qalasi dam along the Iran-Azerbaijan border.

The helicopter carrying the president crashed on the slopes of Mount Sahand near Jolfa, a city on the border of Azerbaijan, some 600 kilometres northwest of Tehran. The events leading to the crash remain unclear, as heavy fog and forested terrain made search-and-rescue operations difficult.

The loss of such high-ranking figures, including the nation’s head of state, has sent shockwaves through Iran’s political landscape and society. Investigations into the cause of the crash are ongoing while the Iranian people grapple with the grief and power vacuum left by this unexpected national tragedy. The incident has certainly left deep scars, underscoring the fragility of life and the immense challenges that can arise from the sudden loss of leadership.

Aviation Infrastructure and Sanctions

The tragic helicopter crash that claimed the lives of several high-ranking Iranian officials, including President Ebrahim Raisi, has raised questions about the potential contributing factors. One significant aspect that warrants consideration is the ageing aviation infrastructure and the impact of longstanding US sanctions on Iran’s aviation sector.

Notably, the helicopter involved in the incident was a Bell 212 aircraft purchased by Iran in the early 2000s. Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the country’s aviation sector has been subject to severe sanctions, hampering its ability to replace parts and equipment for its aircraft over the decades. Consequently, aviation accidents have been a recurring concern in Iran, and it can be speculated that the current crash may have been exacerbated by the challenges posed by ageing and potentially poorly maintained aircraft.

Furthermore, the geographical terrain of the crash site, a mountainous region with dense forests, presented inherent challenges for flight operations. Compounding these difficulties were the reported weather conditions at the time, which included rain and fog, potentially leading to low visibility and creating a demanding environment for the pilot to navigate.

Reports suggest that the pilot may have been forced to attempt a hard landing due to these adverse circumstances, ultimately resulting in the catastrophic crash. While the exact sequence of events leading to the tragedy remains under investigation, the interplay of environmental factors and the constraints imposed on Iran’s aviation sector by sanctions cannot be overlooked.

Acknowledging the potential for conspiracy theories and speculation surrounding such high-profile incidents is essential, particularly in the context of the complex geopolitical dynamics in the West Asian region and Iran’s internal power structures. While there may be little incentive to eliminate the president from the political arena, as the primary decision-making authority rests with the Supreme Leader, it is crucial to recognise that the Supreme Leader’s power is influenced and limited by various power-sharing institutions within Iran.

Moreover, the possibility of domestic involvement cannot be entirely ruled out, considering that Ebrahim Raisi was closely aligned with the Supreme Leader and was potentially in line to assume that position. In a region characterised by intricate power dynamics and historical tensions, it is prudent to maintain an open mind and carefully examine all plausible theories and speculations while assessing incidents of this magnitude.

Ultimately, a comprehensive and impartial investigation will be necessary to unravel the truth behind this tragic event, taking into account the multifaceted factors that may have contributed to the loss of lives and the impact on Iran’s political landscape.

What Next?

The tragic loss of President Ebrahim Raisi has triggered specific constitutional protocols in Iran. In accordance with the Iranian constitution, the incumbent first vice president, Mohammad Mokhber, has assumed the presidency on an interim basis for a period of 50 days. This transitional arrangement was announced by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Along with official duties, Mokhber will work in cooperation with the legislative and judicial branches to facilitate the election of a new president within the prescribed time frame.

During the Iranian parliamentary election, the participation rate was at a record low: 41 per cent nationally and only 7 per cent in Tehran. The population has by and large lost faith in the idea that change can come through the ballot box. Successive governments have failed to deliver on the promises, and therefore, the people of Iran have little faith in the system. Considering the ensuing geopolitics in the region, Iran may witness another chaotic time in its history.

The timing of this incident also coincides with ongoing regional conflicts and Iran’s deepening involvement in Russia’s activities in Ukraine. Additionally, Iran’s role in supporting Hamas and other proxy groups in conflicts with Israel adds a layer of geopolitical complexity to the situation. However, it is essential to note that the foreign policies of Iran are primarily shaped by the Supreme Leader’s influence, leading to speculation that Iran’s regional policies may remain relatively the same.

On the domestic front, the sudden demise of Raisi could potentially lead to shifts in policies, contingent upon the individual who ultimately succeeds him after the upcoming elections. If a like-minded hardliner assumes the presidency, policy continuity is likely to prevail. Conversely, the transition period could witness a temporary softening of stances as the new leadership consolidates its power base.

It is crucial to recognise that while leadership changes can introduce temporary fluctuations, the enduring influence of the Supreme Leader and the power-sharing dynamics within Iran’s political structure suggest that any deviations from established policies may be transient. Raisi’s aggressive stance on the nuclear programme and military engagements might experience a temporary pause during this interim phase. However, in the long term, Iran’s broad strategies are expected to remain consistent due to the overarching influence of the Supreme Leader on the nation’s decision-making processes.

Ultimately, the nation’s long-term trajectories are likely to be shaped by the intricate interplay of domestic and regional factors, guided by the Supreme Leader’s vision and the balance of power among Iran’s governing institutions.

Vijay Maidergi is a PhD Scholar in the Department of Politics and International Studies at Pondicherry University. Anmol Kumar is a Research Assistant for an ICSSR Project at Pondicherry University. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.