How PM Shinawatra’s ouster has deepened political crisis in Thailand

Thailand’s Constitutional Court has once again thrown the country into political turmoil, permanently removing suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office. In a 6-3 verdict, the court found her guilty of ethical misconduct over a controversial phone call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen. The ruling took immediate effect, marking another dramatic chapter in Thailand’s decades-long struggle between elected governments and entrenched elite power structures.

At just 39 years old, Paetongtarn becomes the fifth prime minister linked to the billionaire Shinawatra family to be dismissed by the Constitutional Court in the past 17 years, deepening the country’s prolonged political instability and setting the stage for a possible snap election.

His Master’s Voice

Established under the 1997 Constitution, the Constitutional Court was intended to safeguard Thailand’s democracy and uphold checks and balances. Over time, however, critics argue the court has evolved into a political weapon aligned with the country’s military-backed establishment.

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The court has dissolved political parties, removed prime ministers, voided election results, and curtailed democratic processes. Many analysts now view the court as the “His Master’s Voice” of the military and royalist elite, whose interests have consistently shaped Thailand’s political trajectory.

Disbanded and Dissolved

Since its formation in 1997, the Constitutional Court has dissolved 111 political parties: 92 parties were dissolved under the 1997 Constitution, 15 parties under the 2007 Constitution, and the remainder under the current 2017 Constitution.

The court typically cites three main reasons for dissolution: failure to comply with rules and regulations (mainly the Political Parties Act), lacking qualifications for legal status as a party, and undermining or attempting to overthrow the country’s political system with the King as head of state.

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ere are key parties disbanded:

· Rak Thai Party (2007) and People’s Power Party (2008) — Both linked to Thaksin Shinawatra, dissolved for alleged electoral fraud.

· Thai Raksa Chart Party (2019) — Dissolved after nominating a princess for prime minister, deemed unconstitutional.

· Future Forward Party (2020) — Disbanded for taking an “illegal loan” from its leader; executives received 10-year political bans.

· Move Forward Party (2024) — The successor to Future Forward and winner of the 2023 election, dissolved over its campaign to reform the royal defamation law.

These dissolutions have reshaped Thailand’s political landscape, eliminating reformist movements while strengthening establishment control.

The Revolving Door of Prime Ministers

The Constitutional Court has effectively turned Thailand’s premiership into a revolving door, repeatedly removing leaders associated with the Shinawatra political dynasty. Since 2008, five prime ministers have been dismissed

1. Samak Sundaravej (2008): Removed for hosting a TV cooking show while in office, violating constitutional rules.

2. Somchai Wongsawat (2008): Ousted after his People’s Power Party was dissolved for election fraud.

3. Yingluck Shinawatra (2014): Removed on abuse of power charges; shortly afterward, a military coup led by Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha toppled her government.

4. Srettha Thavisin (2024): Removed in a 5-4 ruling for appointing a cabinet member with a criminal record.

5. Paetongtarn Shinawatra (2025): Dismissed over the controversial phone call with Hun Sen. The only notable exception has been Prayuth Chan-ocha, the army general who led the 2014 coup and remained in power until 2023.

Democracy or Anarchy?

Thailand is officially a constitutional monarchy with regular elections and high voter turnout. In reality, however, democratic governance remains fragile. The military, judiciary, and royal establishment have maintained a tight grip on power, often at the expense of elected governments.

In the Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2024 Democracy Index, Thailand is classified as a “flawed democracy,” reflecting growing democratic backsliding amid judicial overreach, suppression of dissent, and political deadlocks.

Outliner

Thailand, previously known as Siam, holds a unique position in Southeast Asia because unlike other countries it avoided the chokehold of being colonised by one or the other of the European powers.

Before 1932 Siam was an independent country modernising under Kings Mongkut (Rama IV) and Chulalongkorn (Rama V), who pursued reforms and careful diplomacy. On June 24, 1932, in a bloodless coup conducted by Khana Ratsadon (The People’s Party) Siam transitioned from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy.

A Litany of Woes

In December 1941 Thailand was invaded by Japan and the country entered a military alliance with Tokyo. But the post-war government then worked to restore international standing, arguing the wartime declaration had been made under duress. After World War II Thailand was ruled by many authoritarian military rulers headed especially by Field Marshal Plaek Phibunsongkhram; he served as prime minister of Thailand from 1938 to 1944 and again from 1948 to 1957.

But a litany of woes had just begun, with its politics cycling through multiple coups, unwarranted intervention of courts, and a series of mass protests often violent culminating most recently in the August 2025 ouster of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

Thailand’s political instability is rooted in decades of coups and constitutional churn:

· Since 1932, the country has adopted 20 constitutions, placing it among the world’s highest alongside Venezuela and Haiti.

· Thailand has endured 13 successful coups — the most recent in 2014, led by Gen. Prayuth.

· Military influence persists even in “civilian” governments through senate appointments and court interventions.

The 2017 Constitution, drafted under junta rule, gave the military-appointed Senate 250 seats, granting it decisive power over selecting the prime minister and shaping legislation.

The Rise of the People’s Party

With Paetongtarn’s removal, Thailand faces a power vacuum. The People’s Party — formerly the Move Forward Party before its dissolution — now holds the balance of power in Parliament.

Three key dynamics are at play. One, the Pheu Thai Party, led by the Shinawatra camp, wants to push Chaikasem Nitisiri, a 77-year-old former justice minister, as its candidate for prime minister. Two, the People’s Party is hesitant, insisting on consulting its 100,000 members before committing its support. Three, without the People’s Party’s 143 crucial votes, Pheu Thai risks parliamentary gridlock.

Potential Scenarios Ahead

There are three scenarios. One, if Pheu Thai fails to secure parliamentary support, it may call for dissolution of Parliament. However, legal uncertainties remain over whether a caretaker government can authorise such a move and only king has the power to dissolve the parliament.

Two, rumours swirl that former PM Prayuth — a key figure in Thailand’s military-political nexus — may return to power. As a close adviser to King Maha Vajiralongkorn and a name on a five-person shortlist for prime minister, his re-emergence cannot be ruled out.

Three, the People’s Party has vowed to rewrite the military-backed 2017 Constitution, aiming to reduce the judiciary’s and military’s power over elected governments. Any candidate they support would likely face intense opposition from conservative elites. It has finally decided to back Antutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai party, on the ground that he will call for national elections within four months and before that set the ball rolling for drafting of the new constitution. The Parliament website posted a notice on Wednesday that the House of Representatives would convene on Friday to vote for a new Prime Minister.

Analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty could deepen Thailand’s economic slowdown and accelerate capital flight.

The Road Ahead

As Parliament prepares to vote on a new prime minister, Thailand stands at a critical crossroads. The People’s Party holds the key to unlocking the deadlock — but its next move remains unpredictable. If no consensus emerges, the country could face yet another snap election, risking heightened unrest and economic instability.

With an entrenched establishment, repeated judicial interventions, and deepening polarisation, Thailand’s democracy remains fragile. The struggle between reformists and conservatives shows no signs of resolution — and the coming weeks could determine whether Thailand moves toward political compromise or slides deeper into chaos.

The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.