 "How Modi’s Moscow visit will beat down Putin’s diplomatic isolation")
The announcement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impending visit to Russia by the Kremlin in late June took most observers by surprise. The two countries have had a practice of holding annual summits since 2000, but due to the Ukraine war, it was held in abeyance. So why now? And why has Modi chosen Moscow as the destination of his first bilateral visit in his third term in office?
The visit was certainly overdue. India and Russia have had a decades-long ‘time-tested’ relationship that was elevated to a “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” in 2010. Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has stood by India in its times of need, especially during the 1971 conflict with Pakistan, which led to the creation of Bangladesh. It has lent India crucial political and diplomatic support, including in the UN Security Council. Until recently, a bulk of India’s defence requirements, technology, and equipment were sourced from Russia on favourable terms.
President Putin had travelled to India in 2021 for a daylong engagement. The two leaders had last met in Samarkand on the margins of a SCO summit in September 2022, when Modi famously stated, “Today’s era is not an era of war.” They have not met face-to-face since, while the PM has been interacting regularly with other major world leaders, including at the G7 and G20 meetings.
Russia is hosting the next BRICS Summit in Kazan in October 2024, when the annual dialogue between Modi and Putin could have been held. However, both sides wanted a full-fledged standalone visit that was to take place on July 8–9, 2024.
Other than Chinese President Xi Jinping, very few world leaders have visited Russia in the last two years. In fact, Putin’s own movements abroad are limited due to the impending arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in March 2023, which technically could be enforced by any of its 123 member nations. The West has been making every possible effort to hem him in.
India has been mindful of Western concerns, even if it is not in complete agreement with its outlook towards Russia. However, with the Ukraine conflict showing no signs of abating, India decided to go ahead with the summit, as national interests warrant continued high-level engagement with Russia. Even though Russia is not the USSR, given its size and resources, it is and would remain a major global power centre. India-Russia ties are not only of mutual advantage but also give both sides leverage in their conduct of international affairs.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsIndia has always maintained strategic independence in decision-making. Notwithstanding Western pressure, India took a nuanced and principled stand on the Ukraine conflict. It opted to buy oil from Russia at a discounted rate, which also helped stabilise global oil prices and supplies, as significant quantities were processed and exported. Earlier, in spite of the risk of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions, New Delhi went ahead with the procurement of the S-400 missile defence system. The rationale for doing so has been well articulated by India and begrudgingly acknowledged by the West.
Testifying before the US’ Senate Committee on Appropriations a couple of years ago, Secretary Blinken recognised that India’s relations with Russia went back decades ‘out of necessity’ (during the Cold War period). Things had since changed, and India and the US were in the process of establishing a ‘foundational partnership’, given their growing strategic convergence.
That recognition, however, is skin-deep. The India-Russia partnership is a bitter pill for the US to swallow. As the preeminent power, the US likes to keep its options open and maintains ties with all sides but is reluctant to concede a similar space to other nations.
Deputy Secretary of State Kurt M Campbell interalia observed the following upon his return from India last month: “We have been clear which areas are affected by the continuing relationship between India and Russia militarily and technologically. I think we will take what steps we can to mitigate some of those engagements, and we have expressed some concerns."
US defence secretary Lloyd Austin had put it more bluntly in April 2022 during a Congressional hearing: “We continue to work with them (India) to ensure that they understand that it’s not in their best interest to continue to invest in Russian equipment, and our requirement going forward is that they downscale the types of equipment that they’re investing in."
India accords the highest priority to her engagement with the US, and bilateral ties have never been as robust. Yet India is also aware of Washington’s transactional and sanctimonious disposition. It is not above giving pinpricks to India on so-called human rights, minorities, democracy-deficit, religious freedom, and other issues. In contrast, Russia has never been judgmental and has stood by India without too many ifs and butts.
That said, the Ukraine conflict has been a strategic challenge for India. It resulted in sweeping sanctions on Russia by the US and its allies, which pushed the former into the arms of China. Presidents Xi and Putin have met 40 times and have been paying each other regular visits. They pledged a “no limits” partnership in February 2022 and declared the dawn of a ‘new era’ in their ties during Putin’s visit to Beijing last month. These are not mere diplomatic flourishes.
China is Russia’s largest trading partner. Bilateral trade has soared to $240 billion in 2023, marking a 64 per cent increase since 2021. There has also been some sourcing of advanced Russian military hardware and technology while supplying a whole range of consumer products. The West has alleged that critical components and dual-use items are being made available by Beijing to Moscow, which Russia uses in its military equipment and munitions. China is literally keeping the Russian economy afloat and its war machinery humming. Russia is naturally beholden to China.
India has been watching this deepening engagement with growing concern and trying to assess its impact on her own relations with Russia. For example, there is now a question mark over Russia’s stance in the event of hostilities breaking out between India and China. It would be recalled that shortly after the standoff with China over Galwan, Russia had expedited supplies of crucial components and munitions to India, at the behest of our defence minister, who had rushed to Moscow in June 2020.
PM Modi’s visit to Moscow could not be happening at a more critical juncture for President Vladimir Putin. As noted above, no Western or world leader of standing other than the Chinese President has paid him a visit during the last two years.
Modi’s gesture would accord him renewed legitimacy and ease his isolation. It could very well pave the way for other leaders, especially from the Global South, to follow suit. This may not go down well with the West, especially the US, which has made every possible effort to turn Putin into a pariah.
The scenario would be different if Modi’s visit resulted in some forward movement on the Ukraine issue. There are no indications, however, of such an outcome. Yes, the Ukrainian foreign minister visited New Delhi in March, and Modi met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the margins of the G7 Summit in Italy last month. They quite likely would have requested that India use its good offices with Russia to break the logjam. But that is easier said than done.
Even though donor fatigue is setting in with the West, modern weapons and munitions are being pumped into Ukraine. The scope of conflict has widened. Neither side is willing to cede any ground to the other. Russia, which believes it has an upper hand at the moment, is willing to settle if Ukraine gives up its four eastern regions, which is just not acceptable to Zelensky or the West as it would tantamount to rewarding Russia for its aggression. And finally, it is moot if Russia or the West are willing to let India walk away with the honour of facilitating a breakthrough.
Engagement with Russia is certainly a political imperative for India. As such, the visit is happening not a day too soon. At the same time, India may have to marshal all its diplomatic skills to smooth the ruffled feathers in certain Western capitals and be prepared for some stress in ties, at least in the short term.
The author is a foreign affairs specialist and an ex-envoy to Canada and South Korea. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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