How Israel-Iran exchange of fire has turned West Asia into a geopolitical playground

In response to Iran’s missile attacks on Israel on October 1, purportedly to avenge the killings of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh, after 25 days Tel Aviv took its much anticipated, even if diluted and rightly so, retaliation, attacking several Iranian military facilities and killing four soldiers. Both sides claimed that they avoided hitting civilians.

They wanted to convey the message that their engagement and adherence with the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) Syndrome are very much alive and kicking. Both people and leadership are also sanguine about hitting the other, but somehow sanity prevailed. Hopefully, the two sides have squared up like in last April and will avoid further escalation, which would surely be a highly dangerous and self-defeating proposition.

Although it is not amusing, as the West Asia region sits on the powder keg of volatility, it seems like the game of Kabaddi between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Those who know the game would recall, and the Britannica defines it as “Individual players take turns crossing onto the other team’s side, repeating ‘kabaddi, kabaddi’ (or an alternate chant); points are scored by tagging as many opponents as possible without being caught or taking a breath before returning to one’s home territory“. In a peculiar way, both the protagonists are indulging in tit for tat, at least as of now, even as it could flare up to nuclear proportions. The world vainly expects some move forward towards de-escalation in Gaza and Lebanon as Israel indulges in its sanitisation and insensitive bombing drive in both its north and south, taking a huge toll on the hapless civilians.

It was expected for quite some time that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will pay back to Tehran in the same coin and perhaps with some more hit-coins and even cyber currency as its benefactor US and an unhappy lame duck President Joe Biden kept on pressing that the Israeli retaliation ought to avoid Iranian nuclear and oil installations and facilities, which would have surely brought the region into utter despair and destruction with no holds barred escalation, which no one really wanted. Only diplomacy and good sense could prevent it, despite the fact that the international community and multilateral institutions have probably never seemed to be so ineffective.

It was often surmised by the observers that post Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran, immediately after the new somewhat moderate Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in, the Iranians were persuaded not to react as a deal in Gaza was apparently on the cards. But the expansion of Israeli military action in southern Lebanon and the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and the upper echelon of their commanders forced the Ayatollah to take some action lest his credibility with other proxies and his countrymen be utterly compromised. Hence, they shot off 180+ missiles, possibly with some advance warning to Tel Aviv.

Likewise, it was a given that Israel would react, and it did, but in a limited manner, focusing on military and missile facilities, as was done by Iran, which it did with 100 fighter jets in a four-hour operation. Both sides claimed precision strikes even as they tested their air defence systems to the hilt Iron Dome vs the S300/400. The US also marshalled its F-16 squadron as it enabled the THAAD system to protect Israel. Tehran, of course, accused the US of cover-up and complicity. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated, “The Americans provided an air corridor for the Zionist air force, and the defensive equipment they sent to them is considered a form of involvement in the recent operations, and US participation is completely clear.”

Israel warned Iran against any further strikes, stating that its retaliation was completed in response to the October 1 attacks. Tehran reserved its right to respond. Hopefully, this squaring up will be a replica of the April saga when the two sides reacted and restrained. This indeed is a balance of power projection.

In the meantime, the new Iranian government doubled up on its diplomatic overtures across the region and beyond, beginning with a meeting of Pezeshkian with Gulf Cooperation Council leaders in Doha. While they promised not to escalate but extracted assurances that the partner countries will not allow Israel or the US to attack Iran from their airspace or territories lest they be seen as complicit, which would have its own repercussions. As no one in the region and the Arab world can afford an all-out war, they all conveyed it to the Americans, who have umpteen bases in the region, including the biggest one in Al Dafna in Qatar. Qatar and Iran have had close ties, including joint exploration of the biggest gas field, as most others have been pursuing their own rapprochement since the Chinese mediation between Riyadh and Tehran.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, and other Arab countries condemned the Israeli attacks, calling them violations of international law and sovereignty while urging restraint. The Qatari foreign minister called his Iranian counterpart Araghchi (October 26) and expressed their utmost concern over the grave consequences of this escalation, stressing that it is important that all parties exercise restraint and avoid everything that would destabilise security and stability in the region. Jordan, which has a peace treaty with Israel and which also hosts a US military base, condemned the Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s territory in breach of international law, saying that this attack is a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and a dangerous escalation that fuels further tension in the region.

Only a few days ago, the Iranian foreign minister had met his Jordanian counterpart, and King Abdullah II has been conferring with all leaders in the region in this regard. Iraq closed its airspace. Egypt expressed grave concern, stressing its position that a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip should be reached quickly within the framework of a deal through which hostages are released given that it is the only way to de-escalate” as Egypt, Qatar, and a harassed Antony Blinken try to find a way to get the ceasefire discussions back on the table. The Russians are also very active in trying to act as a mediator to bring about a ceasefire, as their delegations are meeting both sides.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant claimed that Iran is no longer able to effectively use its proxies, Hamas in Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon, against Israel. “Over the past year, the security establishment led by the Israel Defence Forces turned the tide of the war and had unprecedented achievements in all arenas of fighting.” Perhaps internationally and diplomatically, Israel has lost much more than it has gained on the ground.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had also met President Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan. They exchanged views on regional developments, including the situation in West Asia. The prime minister expressed deep concern over the widening of the conflict and reiterated India’s call to de-escalate the situation. Modi also emphasised the protection of civilians and the role of diplomacy in resolving the conflict. On October 26, the Ministry of External Affairs expressed deep concern at the evolving escalation in West Asia and its ramifications for peace and stability in the region and beyond. “We reiterate our call to all concerned to exercise restraint and return to the path of dialogue and diplomacy. The ongoing hostilities are to nobody’s benefit, even as innocent hostages and civilian populations continue to suffer.” India is also worried about the welfare of its 9.5 million citizens in the region.

Whether we can expect a draw in this Kabaddi match is another thing.

The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.