Ramification | How instability in Myanmar fosters drug trade, affects India’s security

It is said that China’s frustration was with the Tatmadaw’s inability to control cybercrime, cyber slavery, trafficking, money laundering, and illicit gambling that had a direct impact on its citizens. This resulted in China backing the Three Brotherhood Alliance with the very successful Operation 1027. It was easy enough to achieve as the leader of Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Peng Jiasheng, who was also known as the “King of Kokang”, was one of the most influential people in the Kokang region of Shan State.

Peng had been ousted to China by none other than the present Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who led the coup in 2021. Consequently, with the success of Operation 1027, there was much hope around the world that Myanmar would stabilise, democracy would return, and the region would no longer be lawless.

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However, these observations may have been either premature or looking at the situation in Shan State—piecemeal. Northern Shan State has a history of illegal activities. If Peng Jiasheng was known as the “King of Kokang”, there was much before him the “Princess of Kokang”—Olive Yang. She was the second daughter of the ruling prince from the House of Yang, who went on to become the largest producer of opium and heroin in the world.

Born in 1927, Olive was expected to, as other girls of her stature, have her feet broken and bound in order to get married into a family of equals. However, at an early age she was found carrying pistols to school and commanding hundreds of boys who came to be known as “Olive’s Boys”, her own personal army. It was Olive in the 1950’s who first delivered opium packed on mules to Thailand and later by truck to the Golden Triangle. Olive became one of the most powerful militia leaders in the region, later expanding from opium production to methamphetamines.

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Historically, drug trade and militias have been long connected with this region, irrespective of the change in power centres in Myanmar. It was the nationalist Chinese Kuomintang Army in the late 40’s that set up labs on the border of Thailand and Shan State. In the ’60s, with China ramping up support for the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), many militias became a part of it. Later, apart from Olive, there were many other infamous drug traffickers. Such as the powerful warlord from Kokang, Lo Hsing-Han, who was dubbed the “Godfather of Heroin” by the US, and Khun Sa, who alone is said to have controlled at one point a staggering 70 per cent of the world’s heroin supply in the 1970s.

In the ’80s, when the CPB disintegrated from its ranks, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the MNDAA emerged. It was militia leaders like Olive and Hsing-Han who brokered the ceasefire and negotiated special regions for the state. Such was the power of the local warlords in Shan State.

Opium cultivation and drug processing are an intangible part of the history of Shan State. When UWSA emerged as a player, it challenged Khun Sa’s dominance on the heroin market. With Operation Tiger Trap in 1994, many of the accused were extradited to the US, and the likes of Khun Sa surrendered to the government in Myanmar, leaving a vacuum for many other groups to enter the illicit trade, transforming the region into not just a hub of heroin production but also methamphetamines.

With legal precursor materials coming in from China and time-tested infrastructure, the area barely has a legitimate economy anymore. It has also irrevocably linked the drug trade with armed conflict and territorial dominance. For instance, UWSA occupied the town of Mong Yawn (previously controlled by Khun Sa) and made it into a production hub for Yaba pills, meaning “crazy pills” in Thai.

A combination of methamphetamine and caffeine, the colourful pills stamped with the letters “R” or “WY” have become popular party drugs, costing between $1 and $5 only. In addition to heroin and Yaba, crystal meth (a pure crystalline form of methamphetamine) production has become dominant. In 2008, the US Treasury Department called the UWSA the most powerful drug trafficking organisation in the world. They alleged that they were even making their own precursors.

An estimated 154 tonnes of heroin were produced and exported from Myanmar in 2023, with a value of approximately $2.2 billion. Opium production increased by 36 per cent to 1080 tonnes. And according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Report for 2021, between mid-February and early April of 2020, Myanmar authorities conducted a series of operations in northern Shan State.

The operations resulted in seizures of 193 million methamphetamine tablets (equivalent to 17.4 tonnes) and 500 kg of crystalline methamphetamine. Methamphetamine seizures at a record high, even during the pandemic, are indicative of the vast trafficking networks, easy procurement of precursors, and high demand.

An oversupply has kept the prices low, making synthetic drugs in the region easily accessible. In 2020 alone, more than 867 million tablets were seized. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) follows the 10 per cent rule based on the assumption that authorities only catch 10 per cent of trafficked narcotics. If that is the case, it would be surprising to know that in 2010, it was estimated that 1 billion Yaba tablets were trafficked to Thailand from Myanmar alone. International Crisis Group estimates the total value of the Mekong drug trade is estimated at over $40 billion per year and rising.

However, it is not just countries like Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, or Vietnam that are affected by drug trafficking but Yaba pills have been seized as far as Japan, New Zealand, and Australia. Nearly 1.2 tonnes were seized in 2017 in Melbourne. With Myanmar in a state of conflict and drug production and trafficking at an all-time high, India too has much to worry about. Arakan Army (AA), which was an integral part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, has also been involved in the transit of drugs, especially to Bangladesh, where the demand for Yaba is high.

In 2016, over 300 peddlers from Myanmar were arrested in Bangladesh on smuggling charges with $29 million worth of Yaba. With increasing trafficking and addiction to Yaba, the Bangladesh government in 2018 passed a bill, The Narcotics Control Act of 2018, making manufacturing and distribution of methamphetamine pills/Yaba punishable by death. It has also been reported that the AA has been using the Rohingyas to traffic drugs to the borders of Bangladesh and India’s northeast.

In India, in 2023, Assam Rifles and Special Narcotics Cell Officials seized 1 lakh tablets of methamphetamines worth Rs 33.33 crores in Mizoram’s capital city, Aizawl. Drugs worth Rs 7,887.76 crores were seized in Manipur in the last seven years. In September 2023, the Director General of Assam Rifles, PC Nair, said that in the past four years, drugs valued at Rs 4200 crores were seized. This year alone, Mizoram recorded seizures of 3.380 kg of heroin worth Rs 1,01,40,000, 15.152 kg of methamphetamine worth Rs 1,96,97,600, and 10.385 kg of crystal meth worth Rs 31,15,50,000.

Nagaland seized 32 kg of opium and 26.63 kg of heroin. Meghalaya recovered nearly 19,000 Yaba pills in 2022, 60,000 in 2023, and 2000 tablets in 2024. A recent Border Security Force report suggests that Tripura has the highest seizures of drugs, which includes increasing seizures of meth tablets and Yaba.

Ironically, as Shan State continues to remain fractured with semi-autonomous groups, profiteering militias with the only drugs cutting through the ethnic and political divides, the quality of Yaba and other methamphetamine pills has come down. There is a flow of fake pills on the market that are made up of only caffeine. With the retreat of the real warlords of Kokang, not only are there many brands of drugs but also no single large controller of the illegal trade. This way, the illicit cash to finance militias is spread out amongst all producers and drug traffickers, making the situation far more complex than ever before.

Leading investigative journalist Patrick Winn wrote in his book Narcotopia, “With more than fifty billion pills produced so far this century, a conservative estimate, Yaba is among the most popular illegal products ever created. It’s probably the most consequential narcotic innovation in modern times." So when the United Nations suggests growing alternative crops such as coffee beans, there is much left to be said. Finally, if the Three Brotherhood Alliance was seen as a victory for democracy, the future of this democracy in Myanmar seems very fragile. There are no Olives, Hsing-Hans, or Khun Sas to negotiate amongst the warring contenders, nor are there any signs of the drug trade abating. On the contrary, the cost of conflict in Myanmar is only a fraction of the profits of the drug trade, wherein the conflict itself is necessary for the trade to continue to thrive.

Rami Niranjan Desai is an anthropologist and a scholar of the northeast region of India. She is a columnist and author and presently Distinguished Fellow at India Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.