 "How India can utilise strategic window given by China for Armed Forces’ theaterisation")
The appointment of Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) was announced on August 15, 2019 by the Hon’ble PM from the ramparts of the Red Fort, and this was operationalised on January 1, 2020, with the appointment of Late Gen Bipin Rawat as India’s first CDS.
The first CDS had a very challenging task as jointness and integration were not natural to all three services. The differences, or, so to speak, the perceived differences, were required to be resolved. While all-out efforts started in this direction, the geopolitical situation changed in April–May 2020, just within 4-5 months of the appointment of the first CDS, wherein China transgressed at multiple locations in eastern Ladakh (which has still not been normalised despite it entering the fifth year). This changed situation on the LAC necessitated reasonably large-scale mobilisation from both sides, a situation that less or more continues to this day. It became mandatory that the theaterisation be announced at a time when the majority of issues had already been addressed.
The dynamics changed due to the sudden demise of the first CDS on December 8, 2021, when less than two years had passed since his appointment. The appointment remained vacant for close to one year, and it was in September 2022 when the current CDS was appointed. At this point in time, the Ladakh standoff was continuing, and Russia was already involved in the Russia-Ukraine war since February 2022. Being the largest defence supplier for Indian defence forces, this support also came under serious stress as Russia was itself struggling to meet its defence needs due to prolonged conflict. It therefore became critical that getting theaterisation ‘early’ was not as important as getting it ‘right’.
As transgressions by the Chinese in eastern Ladakh continue, it becomes more critical to operationalise theaterisation after fully resolving the issues between the three services so that it can hit the ground ‘running’ and take on the adversaries should a situation arise. While this strategic dis-balance created by China in the form of transgressions in eastern Ladakh somewhat delayed the operationalisation of theaterisation, in the process, it offered a golden opportunity to address inter-services issues more cogently.
In today’s geopolitical situation, even the leading countries face multiple challenges. To handle that, they also take certain actions, resulting in a strategic imbalance, at least for some time. While the US had adopted theaterisation concept much earlier, China started this concept from 2015 onwards, wherein all aspects related to its efficacy are yet to be smoothed, despite a time gap of close to a decade. Not only this, China recently dissolved its ‘Strategic Support Force’ on April 19, 2024, which existed from the year 2015 when its own theaterisation commenced.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThis force has been broken down into three components: PLA’s Aerospace Force, PLA’s Cyber Space Force and PLA’s Information Support Force. It is reasonable to assume that it will take at least three years, if not more, for these forces to stabilise for effectiveness if major disruptions in the South China Sea and Taiwan don’t take place.
This disruption is a window of strategic opportunity for India to announce its theaterization and operationalise it. Given the fact that the Indian theaterisation is going to be the biggest change in the history of independent India as far as the defence forces are concerned, the current structures of command and control may be retained for the time the new structures are not test-bedded and fully operational.
It will be an apt moment on August 15, 2024, to announce the theaterisation from the ramparts of the Red Fort, exactly five years after the first major announcement beginning this process of change.
Having been included in the election manifesto of the lead party of the current government, this activity will become part of the activities that are invariably showcased within 100 days of the formation of the government. Irrespective of the government, which was formed after the results of the parliamentary elections on June 4, 2024, the 15th of August 2024 will hold a special significance for the makeover of the defence forces, and India should not miss out on the strategic opportunity provided by China, which has undertaken major changes by dissolving its Strategic Support Force, whose components will take reasonable time to stabilise. Time appears to have run a full circle wherein China disrupted our theaterisation by transgressions in eastern Ladakh in April-May 2020, and it has now provided a strategic opportunity exactly four years later. Now it is up to India to leverage this golden strategic opportunity.
The author is Director General of CENJOWS and Kargil war veteran. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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