How global powerplay and terrorism have rekindled Syrian conflict

West Asia is never quiet. As if the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon are not enough, let alone the simmering ones in Libya, Yemen, and Sudan, the past week’s conflagration in Syria has yet again proved that the causes of conflict must also be definitively addressed, especially when a highly complex situation is allowed to take deeper, divisive roots with external powers having their own axe to grind every step of the way.

Although some would express surprise at the suddenness and unexpected success of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which started capturing territory and military assets, advancing from the northwestern part of Syria where they have been strengthening their presence. They were waiting for their erstwhile friends, partners, and benefactors, Al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Even if the HTS—reincarnating itself out of the Jabhat al Nusra and projecting itself and behaving like a state actor in collusion with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), which was generated and empowered and sustained by the US and its allies to fulfil their regime change agenda against President Basar al Assad of Syria—after their Libyan success entwined in a terrible fiasco in 2012 in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring.

Not that the Syrian regime can be absolved of its own crimes and excesses against its own people, but the realpolitik prevailed, as after the Libyan disaster, the Russians woke up to the reality and rushed to save their own strategic assets and base as well as their standing ally in Assad against the regime change agenda of the West. Eventually, a large part of Syria came under the regime’s control, even if not so definitively as was evident during the recent onslaught by the HTS.

The Syrian situation is indeed complex due to an unusually large number of regional and external powers wielding influence and enforcing their agenda in the troubled waters of the Euphrates. We have Turkey fighting the Kurds, especially the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and with Russia, it had tried to work out a buffer zone on the Northern borders. Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are talking to deal with the situation, which can’t be seen in isolation. Russians want to save their access to and strategic ports of Tartus in the Eastern Mediterranean, which could be endangered. Iran is a regional power and an old ally of the Alawite Shiite Assad, and its strategic passage to Iraq and Lebanon could be endangered. Moreover, the currently embattled Hezbollah also operates out of Syria, securing Iranian interests. Hence the Israelis kept on bombing Syrian positions, although. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is indulging in shuttle diplomacy around the region, conferring with the Gulf majors as well as with Moscow and Ankara while assuring Damascus of their continued support.

Of course the Americans oppose the Assad regime and Russian and Iranian designs; hence, they would support not only the Free Syrian Army but anyone empowering them. Hence, even if HTS has been declared a terrorist organisation, it is enjoying the tacit, direct, and indirect support of their surrogates. The Los Angeles Times commented that strangely the one side is supported by the Pentagon and the other by the CIA. About 900 American troops are stationed in Syria’s east to guard against a resurgence by the extremist group. It has supported the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, a US-backed coalition of groups that controls large parts of eastern Syria. Turkey and US positions are in confrontation on this issue as well due to the Kurdish factor.

Why now? Currently, HTS and its associates find the situation amenable for them as Russia is engaged in its own wars and Hezbollah in its survival in Lebanon. Israel has destroyed the communication and liaison network between Hezbollah and Damascus. However, Russians have no option but to use air power against the rebels as they had done in 2016, even though HTS has asked them not to support the discredited government, and their interests will not be affected. The survival of Assad and their own strategic assets and reputation are at stake. Iranian-supported Kataib Hezbollah militias have also been pouring in from Iraq in support of Assad. If the ceasefire with Israel could persist, Hezbollah may also pitch in.

As the HTS is appearing to gain ground, they are encouraging the Assad forces and loyalists to defect through social media platforms. HTS-led operations room stated that its “Military Operations Department announces the start of receiving requests from defectors from the Assad regime in the liberated city of Aleppo to receive a temporary card that will lift legal prosecution from them and preserve their rights”. It added that “everyone who worked in the Assad regime’s army, security, police, auxiliary forces, popular committees, and the like must report to the designated police stations and bring with them personal identification, weapons, and a full pledge”.

Efforts are on to find some way out. Turkey has been frustrated with the lack of progress in talks at the highest level with Syria, especially Erdogan and Assad. But in their discussions with Iranians and Russians, the Turkish foreign minister underscored the need for the Syrian government to start a dialogue with the opposition. “Recent developments show once again that Damascus must reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition”, the FM Fidan offered that “Turkey is ready to make all the necessary contributions toward this”. It will be difficult at this stage to achieve that unless Assad admits to his weakness in militarily confronting the HTS-led civil war, which is unlikely since the second-largest Syrian city and its environs remain under the control of rebels.

Although leaders of HTS and FSA have been planning it for some time, as per various reports, and have been aided by their benefactors as ISIS has been simultaneously gaining ground in the Levant once again. This will help them and compound their power against the current regime. If someone naively concludes that HTS’s declared dissociation from ISIS and Al Qaeda is real, then they are living in a fool’s paradise because fighters keep on changing outfits and colours like the chameleon, but their terror-ridden objectives and extremist methodologies remain steadfast. This would be the biggest threat to the region and the world if the terrorist organisations are enabled for myopic geopolitical objectives.

A much bigger challenge awaits them once again.

The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.