How China has made Shanghai Cooperation Organisation a one-power show

A day to go to the meeting of the Heads of Government of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Pakistan, there are countless questions over the relevance of this critical regional organisation. Once dubbed a regional NATO, the SCO has lost its strategic sheen because of Chinese one-upmanship. China has hijacked the main agendas of the SCO in its favour time and again.

Suppose one analyses the nearly quarter century of the SCO’s existence as a promising regional organisation in the post-Soviet space. One can find the SCO as a one-power and one-nation (China) show. Within the SCO, China’s growing clout stems from the economic dependence of almost all the members of the communist nation.

The present reality is that China has been a friend-in-need for Russia since the Soviet breakup, the biggest investor and trade partner in the Central Asia region besides being a personal guarantor to the authoritarian rulers there, an all-weather ally for Pakistan, and above all, a formidable strategic partner for Iran.

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With such colossal support from SCO member nations, the Chinese government has been cunningly using this entity as a potential regional mechanism to maximise its national interests, both at the regional and international levels. Since 2001, China has compelled the SCO to serve its agendas only: trade, security, or anything else. China has used another SCO agenda, ie, resolving border conflicts among member countries, in its favour by ending internecine border issues with all countries abutting its border, except India.

From the economic point of view, China is the largest beneficiary, having a whopping $70 billion in annual trade with Central Asian countries. China has oil from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, natural gas from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan through pipelines, and uranium from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to meet its critical energy requirements. China has a solid footprint anywhere in Central Asia. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has taken China to an altogether different level, where all the SCO members, observers, and dialogue partners, with India as the only exception, owe China significantly on economic and strategic terms.

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However, the benefits China has accrued in the name of security have been astounding. At China’s pressure, an overarching clause on combating “three evil forces” (separatism, religious extremism, and terrorism) has become a regular inclusion in SCO’s Annual Summit Joint Statement since 2001. China has legitimised its claims of being a poor and innocent victim of terrorism in Xinjiang, which has borders with half a dozen SCO members. In meeting in Islamabad on October 15-16, China will play the same old victim card, shed crocodile tears over the attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan in recent times, and try to reap maximum dividends.

China’s gain through SCO has always been the loss of other members. All the members (except India) are submissive to China because of their individual or national needs or global interests.

Russia, the second most powerful member of the SCO, has always played second fiddle to China in the last two decades. Russia’s indifference to the SCO affairs, because of internal issues and external situations, has made it a mute witness to China’s use and misuse of the SCO. Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, Russia has little or perhaps no interest in affairs related to the SCO.

Similarly, the Central Asian Republics (CARs) have achieved nothing substantial from their decade-long inclinations towards the SCO. The authoritarian dispensations in the CARs have received enormous Chinese largesse, in terms of cash and kind, to show unquestionable loyalty to China. While Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have slight economic development and security advantages, respectively, the poor Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are trapped in Chinese debt.

China has made all possible efforts to stop Indian juggernauts in the SCO since India joined the regional organisation in 2017. As its trademark policy, China has promoted its South Asian lackey, Pakistan, to become an elite member of the SCO, following India’s formal entry, in a deliberate move to counter India’s presence and prevalence in the SCO. In return, Pakistan did all the dirty tricks and went many steps ahead by wooing all four Central Asian member countries in the name of Islam to downplay India’s soft power amongst the CARs.

Earlier, under Chinese duress, Kazakhstan expressed unhappiness over India becoming an SCO member, though not openly. Since 2001, Kazakhstan has enjoyed the status of third most important SCO member after China and Russia, which the Eurasian nation lost to India one and a half decades later.

The present juncture in SCO is critical and sometimes does not favour India. The official story of India in the SCO may be merely seven years old, but historically, it is more than a quarter century old. When Shanghai Five was created in 1996, Russia was keen to bring India on board as a member to counterbalance China but failed to stem the Chinese tide. China ensured that India would only hold observer status for the next one and a half decades before becoming a formal member.

In a practical sense, India has had no significant gain from the SCO, even years after its untiring efforts in terms of trade, security, or anything else. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s consistent efforts in the SCO following the Western (mainly the USA) disenchantment with China in the last decade and Russia since the Russia-Ukraine war have failed to gain substantial momentum. Further, India’s relationship with the US has not been taken up well by three prominent SCO members (Russia, China, and Iran).

China continues to control the SCO and will continue to do so by hook or crook. There is only one voice (India) within the SCO against China. However, India does not have support from other members, especially Russia and Iran. The number game is with China. It is high time SCO members like Russia, Iran, and Kazakhstan come forward to end the Chinese hegemony in the SCO so that this organisation can maintain its independence and relevance. At least they should expose Chinese double standards, particularly in the context of terrorism. The same China that talks of the danger of the three evil forces behaves brazenly while extending support to Pakistan-based global terrorists like Maulana Masood Azar.

Mahesh Ranjan Debata teaches at the Center for Inner Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.