How 2025 will be a challenging year for India-Bangladesh ties

2025 will be a year to watch for India-Bangladesh relations, with several critical developments that could redefine the bilateral ties between these two neighbouring nations. The political landscape in Bangladesh has undergone significant changes with the interim leadership of Muhammad Yunus, and the implications of these changes are far-reaching. From the contentious issue of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s deportation to the delay in elections, the protection of Hindu minorities, and the shifting alliances with Pakistan and China, the stakes have never been higher. The decisions made and actions taken in 2025 will have profound consequences for both countries, shaping their economic, strategic, and humanitarian futures.

One of the most pressing issues is the request for the deportation of Hasina, who fled to India amid widespread protests. India’s response to this request will be a litmus test for its diplomatic stance and could either strengthen or strain the bilateral relationship. Additionally, the delay in elections in Bangladesh has created a power vacuum that hardline groups like Jamaat-e-Islami are eager to fill. The rise of these groups, which have historically been anti-India, could destabilise the region and undermine the progress made in recent years.

More from Opinion

Sergio Gor’s senate hearing signals the future of Indo-American ties How Trump’s ‘War on Drugs’ buildup against Venezuela has a hidden agenda

Furthermore, the Yunus government’s failure to protect Hindu minorities has escalated tensions, with incidents of atrocities against Hindus drawing international attention. India’s response to these human rights violations will be crucial in determining the future of bilateral ties. Lastly, the pro-Pakistan and pro-China stance of the current Bangladeshi regime poses significant strategic challenges for India. As Bangladesh strengthens its ties with these nations, India must navigate a complex geopolitical landscape to safeguard its interests.

The year 2025 will be a defining year for India-Bangladesh relations, with critical developments that will shape the future of both nations. The decisions made this year will have lasting impacts, and any decline in relations could have severe consequences for Bangladesh, affecting its economy, security, and humanitarian situation like never before.

Impact Shorts

More Shorts

How army remains Pakistan’s biggest business house

60 years on, why 1965 India–Pakistan war still matters

The Deportation Dilemma: Sheikh Hasina’s Extradition Request

The Bangladesh government under the interim leadership of Muhammad Yunus has formally requested the deportation of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from India. Hasina fled to India in August 2024 amid widespread student-led protests that resulted in her ousting after 15 years in power. The Yunus administration has issued arrest warrants for Hasina and her close aides, accusing them of crimes against humanity. However, India has no compelling reason to comply with this request, given the lack of concrete evidence and the potential diplomatic fallout.

India’s response to this request will be crucial in determining the future of India-Bangladesh relations. If the Bangladesh government escalates the matter out of proportion, it could strain the bilateral relationship. India’s refusal to deport Hasina could be perceived as a lack of support for the current Bangladeshi regime, potentially leading to diplomatic tensions. On the other hand, complying with the request could be seen as endorsing the interim government’s actions, which have been criticised for their lack of legitimacy and human rights violations.

Election Delays and the Rise of Hardliners

The Yunus government has shown little interest in holding timely elections in Bangladesh. The interim administration has proposed lowering the voting age to 17, a move that has been criticised for potentially delaying the electoral process. The more the elections are delayed, the more chaos is likely to erupt in Bangladesh, creating a power vacuum that hardline groups like Jamaat-e-Islami could exploit. These groups, which have historically been anti-India, could gain significant influence, sidelining moderate electoral voices and destabilising the region.

The rise of hardliners in Bangladesh would be detrimental to India-Bangladesh relations. These groups have a history of opposing India’s interests and fostering anti-India sentiment. If they gain control, it could lead to increased cross-border tensions, security challenges, and a deterioration of diplomatic ties. The Indian government must closely monitor the situation and engage with the Bangladeshi administration to ensure that democratic processes are upheld and that moderate voices are not marginalised.

Protection of Hindu Minorities

The Yunus government has been criticised for its failure to protect the Hindu minorities in Bangladesh. The arrest of Hindu monk Chinmoy Krishna Das on sedition charges has escalated tensions and highlighted the plight of religious minorities. There have been numerous incidents of atrocities against Hindus, including attacks on their homes, temples, and businesses. The Indian government has been patiently observing the situation, but if the Yunus administration continues to be lacklustre in protecting minority rights, India may be forced to react more stringently.

India’s response to the persecution of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh will be a critical factor in bilateral relations. A harsh reaction from India could lead to diplomatic fallout and further strain the relationship. However, India’s silence could be interpreted as indifference to the plight of minorities, undermining its moral authority. The Indian government must strike a delicate balance, advocating for the protection of minorities while maintaining diplomatic channels with the Bangladeshi administration.

Pro-Pakistan and Pro-China Stance

The current Bangladesh regime under Muhammad Yunus has shown a clear inclination towards Pakistan and China. This shift in foreign policy has significant implications for India-Bangladesh relations. The Yunus administration’s engagement with Pakistan and China could undermine India’s strategic interests in the region. China’s increasing influence in Bangladesh, coupled with Pakistan’s historical rivalry with India, creates a complex geopolitical landscape that India must navigate carefully.

If the Yunus government continues to strengthen its ties with Pakistan and China, it could lead to a realignment of regional alliances, isolating India. This would have far-reaching consequences for India’s security and strategic interests. The Indian government must closely monitor the evolving dynamics and engage in proactive diplomacy to counterbalance the influence of Pakistan and China in Bangladesh.

The deportation request for Sheikh Hasina, the delay in elections, the protection of Hindu minorities, and the pro-Pakistan and pro-China stance of the Yunus administration are all critical factors that will shape the future of bilateral ties. Any decline in relations could have severe consequences for Bangladesh, impacting its economy and security like never before, yet India must navigate these challenges with a balanced approach, ensuring that its strategic interests are protected while fostering a stable and cooperative relationship with Bangladesh.

The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. His handle on X is @sayantan_gh. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.