How 2024 will be a decisive year for democracy

The year 2023 ended as the warmest year in the history of the planet Earth, with unprecedented floods on one side and nearly 25 per cent of the world population famishing in the famine on the other. The year 2024 is set to bring never experienced tremors, quakes and tsunamis. But there is a difference. The debris left in the wake of this tsunami either lead the world closer to an apocalypse or it can be one of happy endings. The Year in Numbers In 2024 the global population is likely to be little over 8 billion, removing the 1.4 billion population of China, the rest of the world will be 6.6 billion. Though China will not be impacted but it will cause or will try to cause as many tremors as it can, that have potential to bring the tsunami. And no continent of the world from Asia to Europe, from Africa to North and Latin America and Oceans will be immune from getting engulfed in the tsunami of the year. It is time to end the suspense: The nature of this tsunami will be political. Never in the History The year 2024 is the Superbowl equivalent year for the political arena. The dance of democracy (the elections) will be witnessed in at least 81 elections in minimum 78 countries impacting lives of more than sixty per cent of humanity (which periodically take to hustings fair or unfair). It has never happened on earth in the past and may not happen in the lives of currently living generations again. What a Year It is a year that can change the future trajectory of humanity. Some of the countries that go to polls are the smallest in the world, including but not limited to Tuvalu (0.01 million), Palau (0.02 million), San Marino (0.03 million), Kiribati (0.14 million), Iceland (0.38 million). Others are either the most populous or the most influential. Nations in this category include India (Population 1.44 billion), the European Union (total of 27 EU states with a population of 448 million), the United States of America (441 million), Indonesia (279 million), Pakistan (243 million), Bangladesh (174 million), Russia (144 million), Mexico (128 million), Islamic Republic of Iran (89.5 million), the United Kingdom (67.9 million), South Korea (51.8 million), Algeria (46 million), Ukraine (37.4 million), Uzbekistan (35.4 million), and Ghana (34.4 million). Also in the ring are the European nations of Belgium, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Austria, Slovakia, Finland, and the nations perennially in conflict zones like South Sudan and Rwanda. A Unique Challenge As said earlier, the world has not encountered a year like this in the past and is unlikely to see the same volume of elections at least until 2050. These high-stakes elections will witness many things hitting the surface, including but not limited to the extent of satisfaction or dissatisfaction, growing aspirations, impatience, and frustration of the electorate, including the tolerance or intolerance of unfair elections, misinformation, and electoral malpractices. My gut feel is that these elections will have drama of both Bollywood and Hollywood, boring and inspiring, most comical and outrageous at the same time. For many if not all, results of these elections will be fraught and likely to turn consequential for many long years if not decades altogether. Also, this ‘Super Bowl’ of an election year brings in its train unique challenges to the global community in the myriad arena including the election administration, regulatory challenges, misinformation and fake news, privacy, algorithmic biases and other emerging AI challenges. Not Necessarily Democratic The writing on the wall is clear. The countries heading for elections are too diverse for comfort; few are established democracies, some more fledgling ones, and there are effectively autocracies with votes but few real options for the electorate to choose from. It may be the ‘Super Bowl’ year of elections, but it is not necessarily going to be the Super Bowl dance of democracy. After all the conflict torn South Sudan and Rwanda and autocracies of North Korea, Belarus and Russia too will go to hustings. In more than two dozen countries the elections may neither be free nor fair. These elections can bring another Mahatma and Martin Luther King (less likely) or the next Mussolini (more probable). Also, instead of more democracy the year may bring democratic backsliding, The Game of Chinese Checkers Begins And globally, in a year when more voters than ever in history will head to the polling booths, the game of Chinese Checkers has already begun. In the backyard of India, in the just concluded election Sheikh Hasina of Awami League, has returned in Dhaka as premier for the fourth consecutive term in an election boycotted by the main opposition party BNP, marred by violence amid low voter turnout of 40 per cent. And in the election being held in Taiwan today, in a three-way race where China will not leave the election to Taiwanese and which it has called a choice between war and peace, China wants Hou Yu-ih to emerge victorious. Ironically, Hou is the candidate of Kuomintang, or KMT, the traditional Mainland China rival whose government retreated to the island in 1949 after losing a civil war against the Chinese Communist Party. New World Order The elections in at least 16 countries in Africa, 9 in the Americas, 15 in Asia, 4 in Oceania, and 22 in Europe, apart from the European Union election involving 27 member countries, etc., given the unpredictable nature and changing choices of the electorate, may well, in its wake, bring a new world order with unforeseeable huge implications for polity, economy, human rights, and international relations, with war and peace in the world becoming more volatile by the day. Wild Card Unless an unlikely political tsunami or an act of God intervenes, Narendra Modi is set to return as Indian Prime Minister for the third time. In a rematch of 2020, Donald Trump is raring to reoccupy the Oval Room in the White House, and Vladmir Putin, presumably the Russian President for life, is set to reoccupy the Kremlin, and Mexico, the country of drug lords, is set to get a woman president, irrespective of whoever wins. But biggest, wildest and disrupter in chief, wild card even will be the return of Donald Trump to the White House. He is almost the sure super Tuesday winner as Republican Candidate and though miracles do happen, there is growing evidence that he has edge over Biden. If that happens both America and the world at large can go for uncertain unpredictable tailspin. It may prove the death knell for re-energised NATO and for multilateralism. And going by the past, the return of Trump will be uncertain and fraught for India. What it Means for India For the world in general and India in particular, the elections in countries that account for more than 42 per cent global gross domestic product may make 2024 the most tumultuous and consequential year in the generation from a geopolitical standpoint, particularly at a time when India is emerging as the third largest economy in the world and wants to replace China as the “Factory of the World.” Also, India today has larger geopolitical aspirations, not only in its backyard of South Asia, where China is inclined to buttress its sphere of influence and footprint. Today’s India also has growing aspirations not only in larger Asia and Africa but also in the developed North. Nonetheless, with the results of the Bangladesh election done and dusted, the elections with immediate implications for India are those of Pakistan (in February, unless extended), the Maldivian parliamentary election (likely in April), the presidential elections in Sri Lanka (likely in September), the US (in November). Hopefully, 2024 will end as the most fascinating and promising year for democracy in the world. The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing international scenario. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.