 "Has Assad’s departure emboldened Israel to defang Iranian nukes?")
Syria’s dismantlement of the Assad regime could have emboldened Israel to defang Iran’s nuclear programme. But the strategy seems to decimate the three proxies of Iran first to prevent a multidirectional attack which has the potential of saturating Israel’s air defence systems associated with Iron Dome. It may be recalled that in the past, Iran’s 200-strong surface-to-surface missile (SSM) attack in response to Israel’s repeated strikes on Hamas in Gaza was partially neutralised by US warships surface-to-air missiles.
Yet a few succeeded in saturating the Iron Dome and caused damage, including one loss of life. This was the first time that Iran directly entered a missile war against Israel in support of its proxy, Hamas. This was in response to Israel’s continuous pandering of Gaza after the terror attack by Hamas, which killed 1,200 people and many were taken hostage on October 7, 2023. Iran also announced at that time it had no intention of escalating the offensive after its SSM attack on Israel. The Biden administration was half-hearted in its support for Israel. It didn’t seem to warn Hamas of any consequences.
President Donald Trump had warned Iran to desist from enriching uranium for assembling nuclear devices during his first tenure. This time, immediately after the presidential election results were announced, he warned Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine to end the conflicts. For Israel-Hamas, he had set the date as January 20, the date of his swearing-in, when Hamas was to stop the attacks on Israel or else face the consequences. However, the situation has spiralled out.
Hezbollah jumped into the fray in support of Hamas. In response, Israel launched a massive strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and the IDF Army moved into Lebanon to physically eliminate Hezbollah leadership.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsAssad’s fall has reduced pressure on Israel from one direction, much to its relief. Upon assuming the presidency, the POTUS has been attempting to broker peace in both the conflicts. As a result, the conflict was halted between Israel and Hamas, though by this time the top leadership of Hamas had been eliminated.
During the period of truce, each side was supposed to exchange prisoners with priority to women, children and the wounded. Phase I has been completed. However, the second phase not having progressed as envisaged, Israel has recommenced strikes over southern Gaza and warned the leftover Hamas that the IDF will continue to stay in Gaza till such time as the last prisoner is handed over. A senior Hamas leader, Salah al-Bardawil, was killed on March 23. Coming up to civilian casualties, some reports say over 50,000 have been killed in Gaza.
In the meanwhile, Houthis recommenced attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea. President Trump retaliated by launching a massive attack on Yemen’s Houthi targets to ensure open and free navigation for world shipping and commerce.
In the meanwhile, President Trump has mounted pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table for talks on halting the nuclear programme. He has warned Iran of military action should Iran not give up its nuclear programme. POTUS has also said that it will hold Iran responsible for Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. However, Iran has insisted that Houthis operate independently.
Iran has also displayed its new missile system on three islands in the Gulf under its control, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa. Iran has warned the US that any action against Iran will result in missile attacks on US targets within 600 kilometres from these islands. Quoting President Trump’s letter to Ayatollah Khomeini, the US has reiterated that it wasn’t a threat but an invitation to begin talks with the US for denuclearisation.
In the overall analysis, it seems that between the US and Israel, dismantling three H’s, i.e., Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi, the three proxies of Iran, will be necessary before any offensive or military action is taken against Iran. Or is there divergence between Israel and the US on what to do with Iran?
Israel probably has a sense of urgency since Iran possessing nuclear weapons could become an existential threat. Israel also finds itself in a situation wherein there is an opportunity for Israel to strike Iran even if the US is not supportive. The loss of Syria has been a big loss to Iran. Also, the air defence systems in Syria aren’t a threat to Israeli strike aircraft anymore, making it safer for passage to Iran. The other two countries over which a strike package will have to fly to Iran are allies of the US.
Will those countries permit an Israeli strike package over Iran? A question which will need an answer. Though it seems Netanyahu finds it a suitable window which can also act as political heft for his next election. Having reduced the abilities of Hamas, Hezbollah and now the Houthis, why should Netanyahu not attempt defanging Iran’s nuclear programme?
The US will have to factor in the after-strike impact on the West should Iran be struck to defang nuclear devices. After all, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis have not been decimated completely. These are ideologies which do not destroy themselves. Killing the leaders will restrict their actions for some time but not wipe out their ideology.
President Trump will have to calculate the risk of retaliation by Iran, some response of which has already come in the form of arming the three islands in the Gulf. US NSA Mike Waltz has said that the world cannot have Ayatollahs having their finger on the nuclear trigger. Though some of Iran’s nuclear enrichment plants are buried deep down under the earth, which even the US will find difficult to destroy. The Trump administration will be hesitant to strike and possibly advise Israel not to strike. In that sense the two could be divergent.
The author is Chairman, Trustee Board of India Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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