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On Friday, December 13, President Emmanuel Macron of France appointed François Bayrou as the new Prime Minister of France. Bayron assumes the mantle amid unprecedented chaos and confusion with the polity and finance of the country. He has the unenviable task before him to steady the rudderless French ship in the choppy water.
Farmer turned premier
A tractor-driving ‘son of the soil’ Bayrou fondly calls himself a ‘country man’. He was born in the village of Béarn in a family of farmers. He grew up in the small village of Bordères, between the Catholic pilgrimage shrine of Lourdes and Nay, the birthplace of the beret, and retains ties with the village with a home there.
Aged 73, a centrist, the president of the European Democratic Party and its French member party, MoDem, Bayrou is one of the most experienced politicians of France, who before the appointment as Prime Minister was the high commissioner of planning, the French government body responsible for leading and coordinating projects linked to social, environmental, and technological issues. He is also the ex-mayor of Pau, a town in southwestern France.
Bayrou, who stammered in early life, defied the prediction of a doctor that he would never be able to perform on the stage, be a teacher, or be a politician—has achieved all. Having been a teacher of classical languages in his 20s and having served as education minister from 1993 to 1997, he was also justice minister of Macron briefly in 2017.
He has run thrice to be president of France and earned the popular moniker of the “third man” of French politics, a name he gained during the 2007 presidential election, during which he presented himself as a “third way” between the right and the left.
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The appointment of Bayrou as premier comes on the collapse of the government headed by centre-right Prime Minister Michel Barnier, whose government became the first in over the last sixty years to be toppled after a no-confidence vote.
Barnier was ousted in the no-confidence motion in the lower house of France’s Parliament, with 331 voting to oust the government, with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally joining the ouster move, making the three-month term of Barnier the shortest in the Fifth Republic of France.
Monumental crisis
Under the French constitution, the president nominates prime ministers in France, but, like it happened to Mr. Barnier, the presidential pick of prime minister can be ousted at any time by no-confidence votes.
The new appointee by French President Emmanuel Macron, though a widely respected politician with decades of experience, shall have to tread cautiously. He will need to remember the ignominy heaped on his predecessor, Barnier, who had the shortest tenure of a French Prime Minister in the Fifth Republic.
Three contrasting crises:
One, months of political turmoil—since July 8, 2024, when the snap election gambit of President Emmanuel Macron brought him a body blow, resulting in an uncertain political landscape with a hugely fragmented lower house.
Two, the Left, Right, Centre conundrum—the result has been a complete conundrum of Left, Right, and Centre, with a fractured National Assembly Lower House of France, making governance impossible owing to it being evenly divided among Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN), now the first political force in France; Macron’s centrist Renaissance party; and finally, a loosely united and contentious tactical coalition between the left and the far left.
Three, galloping budgetary and economic crisis—France is in the throes of a serious fiscal crisis. At a handover ceremony with former Prime Minister Michel Barnier on Friday, Bayrou said, “No one knows better than him the scale of France’s financial problems, comparing the country’s budget deficit to the Himalayan Mountain range."
Chance medley tumult
Indubitably, the ascension of Bayrou as the fourth Prime Minister of France in less than a year comes at a particularly difficult time for France, with the country being in serious trouble both politically and economically.
One, a convulsing political chasm, it will be nearly impossible for highly respected Bayrou to govern the fractured nation. No near-term solution is in sight with President Emmanuel Macron doggedly refusing to go and staying firm to stay put “until the end” of his five-year term, until May 2027. Also, the Prime Minister shall need to deftly navigate the churn of left, far left, centre, and right in the parliament because, as per the French constitution, the next parliamentary election can be held only after one year of the last one.
Two, seismic financial tremors, Suffice to say here that as against the governmental fiscal deficit target promised to European partners of 3 per cent by 2027, the deficit has ballooned to 6.1 per cent in 2024 and if the business as usual continues it is likely to further exacerbate to 6.2 per cent in 2025 and 6.7 per cent in 2026.
Unsurprisingly then, the task of the new PM is cut out—normalising a roiling political turmoil and setting in order the economic and budgetary crisis.
Hagrid
As if the existing crises were not enough, even before the formation of his new government, the tenure of the Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has begun with a bad omen. The credit rating agency Moody’s on Saturday, within hours of the appointment of the new Prime Minister, downgraded the sovereign credit rating of France.
Moody’s cut its rating on France from “Aa2 to Aa3”, emphasising that the downgrade “reflects Moody’s view that the country’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years”. France’s rating had already been lowered to equivalent levels by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch.
It is as bad as it can go.
The immediate fallout of Moody’s cutting France’s sovereign debt rating is that it will put pressure on the nation’s borrowing costs at a challenging time, making France one of the most financially stressed countries in Europe.
Straightaway unswerving task
The straight, unswerving task of the new Prime Minister emanates from the very reason Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, was ousted by the far-right and left-wing lawmakers. Barnier had to go because he tried to rein in France’s finances with a budget that aimed at belt-tightening in a desperate aim to shore up the economy of France, including 60 billion euros ($63 billion) worth of spending cuts and tax increases.
The urgent immediate tasks Bayrou faces are:
One, cobbling together a government—the first task before the Prime Minister is to cobble together a robust government that can deliver. To do so, it must be robust enough to survive the vicissitudes of the fractured, cantankerous lower house of Parliament, tragically divided into left, far-left, centre, right, and far-right.
His mettle will be assessed in trying to satisfy warring political factions.
Two, avoiding government shutdown—the most immediate task he faces is to consensually arrive at least at an immediate stopgap measure to avoid a potential and looming large government shutdown before the new year.
This is an absolute minimum.
Three, passing the budget—the new PM must pass his own budget before December 21. If the budget is not passed by the deadline, his government shall be forced to legislate a “fiscal continuity law”, which would avoid a shutdown by allowing the government to collect taxes and pay salaries, with spending capped at 2024 levels.
France getting a budget that tackled the budgetary deficit and still gets the hands up of all stakeholders will be excruciatingly difficult for the new PM, as his predecessor Barnier’s proposed financing bill, which sparked his downfall, aimed at bringing the country’s budget deficit down to 5.1%.
The task before 73-year-old Bayrou—a well-known name in French politics and a long-time Macron ally—is humongous. It starts and ends with bringing rock-solid stability to France, a divided nation struggling with polarised politics, high debt, and a ballooning deficit.
The performance of Bayrou shall be watched both inside and outside France. He must dexterously navigate both domestic and international fronts, including but not limited to being a staunch ally of Ukraine amid a promised trade war and reduced NATO support by Donald J Trump and at a time when France’s European neighbour Germany faces economic and political meltdown.
The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India based impact consultant. He is a keen watcher of changing national and international scenarios. He works as President Advisory Services of Consulting Company BARSYL. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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