E3-Iran nuclear talks: Slim chances for a second deal

Friday morning Iran resumed nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany (also called Europe’s E3), which are parties to its 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had codified a 3.7 per cent limit for Iran’s uranium enrichment and a waiver of sanctions on Iran. But whether resumption of E3-Iran talks can facilitate revival of US-Iran talks leading to crafting a JCPOA 2.0 has serious limits so far.

Prima facie, this second round of E3-Iran talks at Iran’s Consulate in Istanbul continuing for four hours on Friday morning seems like a good sign for a start. The Iranian side was represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, who said they had a frank, serious, and detailed discussion and “agreed that consultations on this matter will continue”.

Only that the JCPOA is due to expire in less than three months on October 18. The fundamental leverage that E3 has is to ‘snap back’ sanctions under the JCPOA, but it must start any such effort at least 30 days in advance, which leaves it with even less time. Then beyond the US, they will also have to deal with China and Russia.

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JCPOA Under Stress

Also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the JCPOA was signed in 2015 by Iran and the E3 plus China, Russia, and the United States. But cracks in the JCPOA had begun early on when, in 2018, during President Trump’s first term in office, the US had walked out of the JCPOA. Iran, in response, had also begun to roll back on its commitments on uranium enrichment, accusing others of not complying with their part of the JCPOA provisions.

The March 2025 report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had concluded that Iran had reached a high level of 60 per cent uranium enrichment. Compared to its agreed 3.7 per cent uranium enrichment under JCPOA, this is much closer to weapon-grade uranium enrichment of 95 per cent. The IAEA report also reported Iran having already compiled a stockpile of 400 kg of such uranium. According to the Israeli spy agency Mossad, Iran was in position to make a nuclear bomb in 15 days time.

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These revelations of the IAEA coming in the midst of Israel’s continuing war with Hamas and Hezbollah—also known as Iran’s proxies in the region—had alarmed Western powers. The Trump presidency had responded to it by immediately initiating talks with Iran from April while keeping maximum pressure by supporting aggressive Israeli military operations. In fact these talks had witnessed an unusual hectic pace with five rounds in just two months: three in Muscat followed by two in Rome.

US-Israeli Airstrikes

It is interesting to note that the sixth round of the US-Iran talks was scheduled for 15 June at Muscat. These were suddenly scuttled due to Israeli air attacks on Iran on June 13. More startling was the fact that this was followed by American attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Isfahan, and Nantaz, disrupting their nuclear talks. President Trump had claimed to have ‘obliterated’ Iranian nuclear facilities. But American media has since questioned this assessment, thereby putting pressure for revival of talks.

In fact, along with the US-Iran talks, the E3 had also initiated talks with Iran. They held their first round in Istanbul on May 16. But following US-Israeli air strikes on Iran, the E3 had also threatened Iran with triggering ‘snapback’ sanctions as per the JCPOA unless Iran ensured substantial progress in talks before the end of August. This E3 ultimatum was driven partly by their limited window of less than three months’ time when their option of snapback sanctions under JCPOA will expire on October 18.

Any attempt at imposing sanctions on Iran later through the UN Security Council will face Iran’s friends, China and Russia, using vetoes to block any such action. Both China and Russia have condemned US-Israeli air strikes on Iran and remain opposed to unilateral sanctions. Besides, Iran has called this E3 ultimatum a breach of their May 16 Istanbul talks, which had agreed to continue consultations.

Hardening Preconditions

Following these US-Israeli attacks and the E3 ultimatum, Iran has refused to cooperate with the IAEA, criticising it for bias and for not condemning these strikes on its nuclear facilities. Iran had accordingly asked IAEA inspectors to leave the country and even threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who recently told Fox News that their enrichment was currently ‘stopped’ due to ‘serious and severe’ damage to their nuclear sites, also underlined that “Iran’s position remains unshakeable and that our uranium enrichment will continue”.

Iran has since reinforced its preconditions that any talks must only focus on size and levels and not on its option for uranium enrichment. That these talks will also not include other issues like its ballistic missiles or so-called proxies in the region. The US, which sees these preconditions as red lines, remains divided, with its chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, asking Iran to return to the JCPOA-agreed limit of 3.7 per cent enrichment, while President Trump has been talking of complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program.

Even in the face of media assessments to the contrary of President Trump’s claims, he has persisted with his belief that he has ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear facilities and is in no hurry to resume talks with Iran. At the same time, Trump has shown increasing discomfort with Prime Minister Netanyahu for not agreeing to an early end to his war in Gaza, which has killed over 56,000 Palestinians. In the midst of raised tempers, negotiations have less chance of success.

The Way Forward

So the basic purpose of E3-Iran talks therefore remains breaking ice in this increasingly difficult impasse. To begin with, they seek to revive an early resumption of the US-Iran talks. This is the only way to ensure continuation of JCPOA arrangements beyond October 18. But in the face of both the US and Iran digging their heels deeper, the E3, in fact, could become increasingly vulnerable. And they also have to deal with China and Russia.

Iran has reasons to suspect its interlocutors. PM Netanyahu is increasingly seen defying President Trump, and both have threatened to resume strikes on Iran. In spite of its hectic five rounds of talks with the US plus one round of talks with E3, the Israeli offensive had killed several of Iran’s top commanders and nuclear scientists. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has been urging E3 to trigger this snapback mechanism.

While the JCPOA 2.0 may be a tall order, the only positive sign is Iran opening dialogue with the IAEA in the “next few weeks” to explore possibilities for their return to Iran to resume their nuclear monitoring work. IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi said last Friday—as E3 were negotiating with Iran in Istanbul—that he is hopeful of “starting on technical details and, later on, moving on to high-level consultations” without pushing for inspections as yet. This may not have received much media attention, but this technical approach to a political problem could be a more pragmatic way to deal with the current impasse.

The author is professor of International Relations at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.