How Trump’s tariff politics threaten America’s global standing

America’s liberal hegemony is unsustainable today and apparently beyond repair. Donald Trump ensures the end of that order faster than expected. It is too predictable and requires no special expertise to decode. His tariff drama, as a form of soft coercion to bend a trade partner into accepting the US’s terms and conditions, is an ill-advised move and ultimately fatal for its interests in the long run. It is political suicide and diplomatic myopia. It exposes the US’s weakness and shaky political psychology. The dividends will be negative. Trump is holding onto something that will ensure quick disrepute and erosion of American leadership.

The US’s liberal hegemony, promoted by liberal democracy, a free-market economy, globalisation, and political and military influence, has declined over the years. Its crisis has created a multiplex world order, competition, and diversification. Trump lives in an ivory tower, indulging in imaginary pomposity, power, and hubris. The US economy is badly affected, and recovery is too remote. It must have domestic prosperity and international heft to wield authority.

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Trump has exacerbated the matter further by showing off a false sense of superiority. His hubris has exposed his duplicity. The European Union (EU) is not under its control. West Asia has become more fragile after the Iran-Israel war and the Gaza fiasco. Despite the Alaska meet, the Russia-Ukraine war is not likely to end soon. War fatigue is obvious, but hubris keeps the war going. Trump’s verbosity about bringing instant peace has failed deplorably. The China-Taiwan conflict boils the waters of the Indo-Pacific. Can Trump manage to address multiple pressure points? This is the time for tactical diplomatic cooperation to ease global problems and strengthen the domestic economy.

Paradoxically, transactional Trump prefers conflict to negotiation. Tariffs are weaponized to secure concessions. His tariff model is a conflict model. Partnership is not built through impositions, imperatives, coercion, or bullying. Every country protects its interests. Mutual interest is the foundation of a secure partnership. These are elementary in international relations. To coerce a country through tariff threats, vetoes, sanctions, and social media comments does not make a country a responsible global power.

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The US has imposed a total of 50 per cent tariff on Indian exports. Reportedly, exemptions are applied to a host of products that the US needs most. These include pharmaceuticals, energy products, electronics, and semiconductors. The reason behind imposing this tariff is to restrict India from buying energy and weapons from Russia. Russia is India’s time-tested traditional partner. India has significantly reduced its singular dependencies on Russia by diversifying its export-import partnerships to secure its interests. India’s purchase of Russian oil has significantly reduced the global energy crisis and inflation. Trump’s failure to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine pushes the policy of economic blockade to force the Kremlin to come to the negotiating table. This policy will engender a severe energy crisis and uncontrollable inflation, and the Global South will bear the brunt.

India is an energy-dependent country. Its infrastructures require energy. Its dense demography will suffer in the event of a hike in energy prices and soaring inflation. It has a political price attached to it. These consequences are not featured in Trump’s critical calculation and can be called a miscalculation. Trump’s tariff framework has two sides to it: one is economic, and the other is geopolitical. Here, geopolitics is more important than the economic dimension. The geopolitical game through tariffs creates an atmosphere of extreme discomfort.

The US cannot impose tariffs, interfere in India’s neighbourhood, pass frivolous and unnecessary statements on India’s Operation Sindoor in Pakistan to fight terrorism, and still ask for partnership. These contradictions hardly coexist. The US interferes in Bangladesh and Myanmar and irks India with irresponsible and unstatesmanlike statements concerning India’s ceasefire with Pakistan. Its preferential treatment of Pakistan, a country that carries out cross-border terrorism in India, does not make the US a friend or a trusted partner. However, despite a chequered history, India has built a significant partnership with the US for over a decade.

India can antagonise neither Russia, a traditional strategic partner, nor China, a neighbour. It has to take a balanced line. It has shown great statesmanship, restraint, and composure despite Trump’s provocations through social media. The US needs India to cool the waters of the Indo-Pacific—not through coercion but through cooperation. China is America’s archenemy. The latter cannot control the former without a formidable alliance. Therefore, India is a Quad member, delivering its responsibility through strategic cooperation and partnership. The US intends to develop contrary camps: either one is its friend or a rival. This kind of rigid determinism is counterproductive in international relations. The era of binary choices is over in the age of a multipolar world order. Either/or binary thinking is untenable—interests matter. Interest-based cooperation will be more profitable and attractive.

The US’s moralising on partnership ethics and high-tariff trade architecture does not hold any merit in an increasingly competitive world order. When the US was at the helm of the global order, it never referred to morality while pushing its interests unilaterally. India has mainly been more considerate and has preferred a balanced approach to international relations. It has diversified immensely. It is not entirely dependent on the US’s adversaries, Russia and Iran. Its dependencies on them have minimised over the years. It has developed an incredible partnership with the US. But the US wants India to toe its line as and when the former requires and become its puppet.

Can the US follow India as and when the latter requires it? On the issue of Pakistan, the US has no trouble switching sides. Why would India do anything counterintuitive? India is an aspirational country and has a bright future. It is gradually diversifying its scope of expression, connection, and cooperation with special attention to the Global South. It follows its own pace and works in the direction that leads it toward a future of progress.

Moreover, China will seemingly be the primary beneficiary of Trump’s tariff exercise. The US cannot build a firewall against China without trusted partners. India’s indispensability is irrefutable because it is a key player in the Indo-Pacific. Tariff pressure may force countries to come closer to China. Though China is an equally coercive power and its debt-trap diplomacy is globally infamous, it has manufacturing strength, supply chain support, critical technology, and rare earth resources to attract partners for collaboration and trade. Therefore, Trump’s policy miscalculations and misplaced priorities will eventually empower China.

If good sense prevails and he retracts the tariff diplomacy from his policy itinerary, it may ease the tension. The US must get down from the ivory tower and understand the geopolitical and geostrategic complexities. Its self-insulated sense of unquestioned grandeur and brandishing of unending power will become a hamartia ensuring its downfall. Howdy Modi and Namaste Trump in 2019 and 2020, respectively, gave an impression of a bromance. It was cosmetic and short-lived.

Trump’s transactionalism has ruined everything. Recent incidents of unnecessary meddling in Indian affairs and tariff coercion proved Henry Kissinger’s statement: “It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” The tariff shock is not Trump’s miscalculation—it speaks of his political madness and policy myopia.

Dr. Jajati K. Pattnaik teaches at the Centre for West Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Dr. Chandan K. Panda teaches at Rajiv Gandhi University (A Central University), Itanagar. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.