 "Dissanayake’s India visit builds trust, but India-Sri Lanka ties face a test of policy execution")
Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) made his maiden visit to India from December 15 to 17. The visit has been hailed as successful in both India and Sri Lanka. There were lots of apprehensions both in India and Sri Lanka about the future of bilateral relations under the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) government because of JVP’s past anti-India approach. However, the joint statement titled Fostering Partnerships for Shared Future issued after the bilateral meeting between President Dissanayake and Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicates that both sides are committed to strengthening the long-standing bilateral ties.
The main areas of collaboration mutually agreed upon and mentioned in the joint statement include the digital economy, tourism, renewable energy, information technology, agriculture, dairy farming, fisheries, maritime security, counter-terrorism, human trafficking, and capacity and capability building of Sri Lankan defence forces to deal with various security-related issues. Both sides also agreed to continue their ongoing preliminary work for inter-grid connectivity and a multi-product petroleum pipeline between the two countries, the supply of LNG, and the under-preparation Sampur Power Project.
In addition to bilateral cooperation, both sides agreed to collaborate for regional and multilateral cooperation under the Colombo Security Conclave, the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), and BIMSTEC. President Anura sought India’s support for Sri Lanka’s application to become a member of BRICS. Sri Lanka has extended its support to India’s candidature for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council for 2028-29.
The reiterated intention to further the existing areas of bilateral cooperation in the joint statement reflects a pragmatic shift in JVP’s anti-India approach. In the past, JVP expressed its opposition to the signing of the Economic and Technological Cooperation Agreement (ETCA). However, during his India visit, President Dissanayake agreed to continue the discussion on ETCA, which was initiated by former President Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe National People’s Power (NPP) administration’s main priority is to bring economic stability and work towards economic recovery. India, which provided immense assistance to Sri Lanka to deal with the economic crisis, is considered a crucial partner in its march towards economic recovery, and hence AKD sought greater economic and financial engagement with India in addition to defence and security cooperation. Responding positively to the Sri Lankan request, India has announced grant assistance of $14.9 million to undertake a signalling system in the Maho Anuradhapura segment of Sri Lankan railways, a comprehensive scholarship program for 100 students, and training facilities for 1,500 Sri Lankan civil service officers over a period of five years. An MoU was signed to amend the Double Taxation Avoidance (DTA) Agreement to bring the DTA in line with international standards on prevention of tax treaty abuse.
The visit is likely to facilitate a few new developments in the bilateral relations, including negotiations to explore the possibility of concluding a framework agreement on defence cooperation, establishing a joint working group to examine possibilities for the comprehensive development of the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka, and finalisation of a bilateral social security agreement.
The visit has created a cordial atmosphere for both sides to engage effectively. Nonetheless, the execution and implementation of several policy decisions will be challenging for both sides. Government-to-government-level collaborative projects between the two countries are expected to rise. However, attracting Indian private investors to invest in Sri Lanka will remain a challenge.
Until and unless the use of bottom trawlers by the Indian fishermen is completely stopped, the fishermen issue will continue to irritate bilateral relations, as AKD has promised the Tamil population of northern Sri Lanka that he would resolve the fishermen issue.
During the visit, India urged the new administration to take a constructive approach to Tamil reconciliation but refrained from prescribing specific methods for achieving it. As JVP has promised to address the issue of Tamil reconciliation by bringing a new inclusive constitution, the Government of India has rightly avoided its insistence on the implementation of the 13th Amendment. The shift in India’s approach indicates that it is no longer inclined to micro-manage the domestic affairs of its neighbour. India is leaving it up to the Sri Lankan government and its people to decide on the right path to address the reconciliation issue. Hence, unlike in the past, the 13th Amendment is not going to be a major issue between the two countries, at least in the immediate future.
AKD has reiterated Sri Lanka’s stated position of “not permitting its territory to be used in any manner inimical to the security of India as well as towards regional stability”. Despite such commitments in the past, Chinese submarines and research ships plying in Sri Lankan waters created tensions between India and Sri Lanka, as this is one of the major security concerns for India. Former President Ranil Wickremesinghe addressed the issue by declaring a moratorium on foreign research vessels, which is going to expire at the end of this month. The NPP government has not yet made any decision as it is waiting for a committee report that was set up to build a national policy on the issue.
Meanwhile, Vice Chairperson of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) Qin Boyong stated during her meeting with AKD on December 18, 2024, that China was planning to restart maritime research activities, which were temporarily halted. Dissanayake’s response to the official request from China (if made) in this regard will be the key indicator of the NPP government’s commitment to addressing India’s security sensitivities from an Indian perspective.
With the absolute majority in the parliament, the NPP government is in a comfortable position to deal with the domestic challenges to India-Sri Lanka bilateral relations. Coping with the China factor in the India-Sri Lanka bilateral relations, however, will be a major challenge for the Dissanayake administration. As the NPP government is hoping to maintain friendly relations with both India and China, prioritising its national interests, Sri Lanka is bound to experience constant pulls and pressures from these two competing powers. In this context, the Sri Lankan government has to walk a tightrope while managing its relations with India and China.
Gulbin Sultana is an Associate Fellow with the South Asia Centre of Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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