Desperate China plays Arunachal card as its grip on the region weakens

The geopolitical temperature soared in the Himalayan region this week when China issued a list of Chinese names for around 30 places in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. Arunachal which China refers to as ‘Zangnan’ or South Tibet has once again become an issue of concern for India as China is repeatedly making claims on the region as its own. After refusing to recognise the British-era McMahon Line, China set its eyes on Tibet and forcefully annexed it in the 1950s where the brutal repression of the Tibetan people continues till date. After Tibet, Arunachal has also become a victim of the Chinese expansionist narrative which is nothing but a tactic to keep India on the tenterhooks. This is because, in the past, China has even used Arunachal as a bargaining chip to make India abandon its claim on the territory in the Western sector. This was a part of the famous ‘package deal’ that Chinese premier Zhou Enlai had offered to prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru in 1960.

Fast forward to 2024 and China’s theatrics with regards to Arunachal Pradesh have only become more explosive. If in the past, China was handing out stapled visas to Indian nationals from the state, this is the third time since 2017 that it has issued a list of Chinese names for places located in the Indian state. It even protested when Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a visit to Arunachal last month to inaugurate several development projects including the Sela tunnel and an all-weather strategic link to areas closer to the Line of Actual Control (LAC). China’s absurd claims have attracted a lot of flak internationally with even United States ‘strongly opposing’ its act of renaming places. Even as China is desperately using the Arunachal card to target India, the understated fact that is being missed is that the situation in the subcontinent has changed considerably for China. From the non-starter China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in Pakistan to Nepal’s turn towards a Hindu identity, China has hit a difficult patch in its outreach to South Asia. No wonder it is resorting to newer cards with the sole intention of troubling India.

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Fledgling China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

From what was once hailed as the centrepiece of its ambitious Belt and Road initiative, CPEC has now become a security headache and a white elephant for China. As per Pakistan’s former minister of privatisation Fawad Hasan Fawad, a full decade has passed since CPEC was formally launched but not even one-fifth of the scheme’s potential has been realised. As part of the plan, multiple special economic zones were proposed across Pakistan that would grow into islands of high economic growth but even today, none of them are functional yet. Interestingly, there has been a lot of political mudslinging in the country with regards to taking credit for the $62 billion scheme with the civilian and the military leadership fighting it out in the open. However, the truth is that CPEC is so stillborn that there is nothing to take credit for, except may be for the security risks that it is facing.

Last week, five Chinese engineers were killed in a suicide attack when a car full of explosives rammed into their convoy in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. This was the third such incident in a single week with around five total attacks between 16 March to 26 March claiming 18 lives in the country. All the last three attacks had Chinese investments on target with gunmen attacking China-funded Gwadar port, another attack on a naval base citing China’s investment in the region as the cause and then finally the 26 March attack that claimed the lives of Chinese engineers. Clearly, Pakistan has failed to provide adequate security to CPEC infrastructure with its armed forces having a tough time dealing with multiple challenges ranging from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan to cross-border strikes from Iranian forces. Pakistan had raised a dedicated security force, precisely for securing Chinese assets as a part of CPEC but even this 15,000-strong Special Security Division has failed to control the growing threats from Baloch as well as Pashtun separatists.

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As CPEC is failing, China has also understood that its investments in Pakistan are far from bearing any fruits. The 26 March incident has a great degree of similarity to the 2021 attack on Chinese engineers in which nine of them lost their lives. At that time, the investigation had concluded that TTP was the culprit. With the rate at which security risks are rising to CPEC, China will have to rethink its continued presence in the country. Loss of lives along with a lack of economic returns is a strong reason for it to abandon its commitment to CPEC.

Backlash from the Indian subcontinent

Even as terrorist attacks on CPEC are pushing China to the edge, its influence in other countries in the Indian subcontinent is also waning. A case in point is Sri Lanka — after declaring a one-year ban on foreign research vessels from entering its water, it allowed a German research vessel to dock at Colombo Port. This infuriated China with a Chinese delegation which was present in the country at that time threatening to leave. China’s relations with Sri Lanka have taken a hit since the latter faced economic turmoil and China didn’t live up to the expectations of Colombo in coming to its aid. That strategic vacuum has been reclaimed by India which not only came to help Sri Lanka clean the mess but it since has received special attention from the Ranil Wickremesinghe administration. Just a day before Sri Lanka’s independence day on 4 February, Indian submarine INS Karanj docked at Colombo port and left only after the celebrations concluded. If Sri Lanka has shown utmost concern for Indian sensitivities and rebuffed China with its one-year mortarium on visits by research vessels, Nepal is also fast becoming a cause of worry for the Chinese.

After years of funding a Maoist movement in Nepal to even mediating between the political crisis among its various factions, China is now facing the imminent reality of Nepal embracing its Hindu identity. With around 81 per cent of the population in Nepal consisting of practising Hindus, their Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a Maoist leader himself has suddenly become a leading proponent of ‘Hindu diplomacy’. He is making much-publicised visits to Hindu temples of great significance in not just Nepal but India as well. Interestingly, the sentiment of being a proud Hindu has caught up across the political spectrum with Nepali Congress leader and member of Parliament, Shankar Bhandari leading a campaign to re-declare Nepal as a ‘Hindu Rashtra’. Logically, Nepal’s explicit Hindu turn will bring it closer to India, another Hindu-majority country and take a lot of leverage away from China. Not to mention that Nepal also remains a challenge to China’s Belt and Road initiative. It has been seven years now that both countries agreed to cooperate under the mega scheme but not a single tangible outcome has been delivered till date. When China tried to appropriate an airport built in the tourist city of Pokhara as a part of BRI, it met with vehement protests from members of Nepalese civil society cautioning against the Chinese debt trap.

In Bangladesh, China’s expanding footprint may be a cause of concern for India but its tacitly backed campaign to push India out received a befitting response from Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last month. A Maldives-style social media campaign led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party was brewing in the country to boycott India when Hasina told Bangladeshi people to boycott Indian sarees and spices if they could. The reference may be to just a couple of Indian products but the symbolism of Hasina reminding her people of Indian contribution to Bangladesh was unmissable. Under her leadership, India-Bangladesh ties have transformed into a mature partnership with much give and take. Bangladesh has also kept India’s trust intact while remaining cautious of any excessive dependence on China’s initiatives.

The recent events in the Indian subcontinent have come as a great shock to China’s strategic goals in the region. This includes visuals of Prime Minister Modi receiving Bhutan’s highest civilian award last month during his visit to the serene Himalayan kingdom. From Pakistan to Sri Lanka and from Nepal to Bangladesh, either the countries in India’s neighbourhood are getting disenchanted with Beijing’s promises of shared prosperity or the projects have proven to be too unviable to succeed. All in all, China’s growing frustration requires it to play other cards and its frivolous claims on Arunachal Pradesh are an example of the same.

The author is a New Delhi-based commentator on geopolitics and foreign policy. She holds a PhD from the Department of International Relations, South Asian University. You may follow her on X: @TrulyMonica. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.