 "Municipal workers carry a dead body killed after an apartment building was hit by Russian air bomb killing at least three and injuring 23, in Kharkiv, Ukraine on 22 June, 2024. AP")
The protracted war between Russia and Ukraine is heading towards a Russia-NATO nuclear showdown. If this occurs, it can be stated that World War III may take place very soon, which will have a ripple effect on global geopolitics. NATO is using the ongoing war as a pretext to expand its leverage in post-Soviet Eurasia. Therefore, what is required is a pragmatic engagement on the part of Russia and Ukraine to resolve all outstanding disputes and achieve a ‘sustainable peace’.
Introduction
The recent flare-up of war between Russia and Ukraine, after a brief lull over the last couple of months, raises many pertinent points that need serious attention. This is especially significant as the United States is approaching a presidential election, and President Biden will seek to salvage his image before the election. It is a fact that the Biden administration is one of the key supporters of Ukraine in its war against Russia. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin is quite keen to complete his unfinished agenda of unifying the eastern part of Ukraine with Russia, which actually propelled the present war. The Ukraine Peace Summit, which took place between 15-16 June 2024 in Switzerland, failed to address these concerns.
In this context, there is a need to look at the future of the Russia-Ukraine war and its ramifications in the form of a wider conflict between Russia and NATO. The G7 countries, in their latest summit meeting in Italy, called for an onslaught against Russia, both militarily and economically, from Western countries. However, this might only fuel the fire and aggravate the situation.
What inferences can one draw from the above strategic developments and their consequences on the future of the Russia-Ukraine war? In this context, there may be three inferences one can draw:
Impact Shorts
More ShortsRussia may make its presence felt in the captured territories of Ukraine under its control.
Ukraine will get adequate support from NATO to circumvent Russia in its own strategic backyard.
There is a chance that the war may extend beyond the post-Soviet space and engulf European territories.
All these developments will give a new direction to the future of Russia-Ukraine relations and Russia-NATO relations.
NATO’S move
The escalation of conflict between Russia and NATO over Ukraine was visible when US President Biden, during his visit to Paris, gave a statement which explicitly highlighted the West’s forthcoming move against Russia. As Biden stated, “All of Europe will be threatened, we are not going to let that happen.” He further underlined that “Putin is not going to stop at Ukraine.” Biden’s statement on Russia can be seen in the backdrop of NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg’s statement that “every time NATO allies are providing support to Ukraine, President Putin is trying to threaten us not to do that.”
To bolster its defence preparedness, NATO has also engaged with its allies in Europe, including the Baltic countries, as they have a long-standing dispute with Russia. Stoltenberg, on June 11, speaking at the newly formed B9 Summit of NATO in Latvia, stated, “I expect that we will be able to agree for a NATO stronger coordinating role in supporting Ukraine, providing training and security assistance.” Earlier, the NATO chief had also stated that “Ukraine has the right to self-defence.” One may recall that NATO strengthened its war effort and encircled Russia after Finland acceded to the NATO grouping. Similarly, Sweden, which has recently joined this military grouping, will also help NATO to pose a considerable threat to Russia. The full membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO only confirms the statement given by Stoltenberg way back in 2022 that “if the Kremlin’s aim is to have less NATO on Russia’s borders, it will only get more NATO.”
Some of the statements emanating from NATO were reflected on the ground as this Western-sponsored military body conducted its largest-ever military exercises, stretching from January to May 2024. Known as Steadfast Defender 2024, all 32 NATO countries participated in these exercises. According to the NATO website, this is the largest military exercise the organisation has ever conducted. The NATO website further states that this exercise is aimed at “demonstrating NATO’s ability to defend every inch of its territory, and the commitment of NATO Allies to protect each other from any threat.” Along with Steadfast Defender 2024, NATO also carried out another naval military exercise, BALTOPS 24, in the Baltic Sea region, which lasted until June 20. Although it is an annual naval exercise, this year’s exercise had special significance due to the critical phase of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Along with military exercises, NATO is also planning to deploy sophisticated weapons, including nuclear ones, against Russia. Earlier, some of these weapons were exported to Ukraine by NATO authorities. The deployment of nuclear warheads against Russia was more or less confirmed by the NATO chief in an interview with the British newspaper Telegraph. During the interview, Stoltenberg reportedly stated that he “won’t go into operational details about how many nuclear warheads should be operational and which should be stored, but we need to consult on these issues. That’s exactly what we’re doing.”
The above statement by the NATO chief indicates that the Russia-Ukraine war is heading to the next step. Meanwhile, NATO is also reportedly beefing up its land operations against Russia by stationing around 300,000 soldiers. Thus, it can be stated that NATO’s move is certainly aggravating the security situation on the ground. This has also led to a strong response from Russia.
Russia’s response
Russia is also not far behind in matching the war of words with NATO over the Ukrainian crisis. However, the war of words may turn into a real war if the present escalation persists for a few more months. As discussed, the joining of both Finland and Sweden in NATO sends a strong warning signal to Russia. By bringing these two countries as front-line allies of NATO against Russia, this Western military bloc has succeeded in its game plan of encircling Russia. In this context, one can notice a sense of apprehension from Russia.
This apprehension was manifested when Maria Zakharova, a high official from the Russian foreign ministry, made a statement after Sweden joined the NATO bloc. Zakharova stated, “We will build our response with retaliatory steps of a military-technical and other nature.” Similarly, the Russian Embassy in Sweden remarked, “At the same time, the country’s [Sweden] entry into a military bloc hostile to Russia will negatively affect the level of stability in Northern Europe, in our common Baltic Sea region.”
The above statements from the Russian Foreign Ministry clearly suggest a strong response to NATO’s actions. It indicates that Moscow is ready to pursue a full-scale war if necessary. President Vladimir Putin outlined Russia’s policy response to NATO’s inclusion of Finland and Sweden during his interview with RIA Novosti in March 2024, stating, “This is an absolutely meaningless step (for Finland and Sweden) from the point of view of ensuring their own national interests… We didn’t have troops there (at the Finnish border), now they will be there. There were no systems of destruction there, now they will appear.” Regarding Russia’s policy on using nuclear weapons against NATO, Putin made it clear that, “It’s not necessary… we still need to think about it, but I don’t rule out that we can do the same.”
This demonstrates that Russia will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons in response to any aggressive move by NATO. To counter NATO’s actions, Russia began military exercises in May 2024. The Russian Defense Ministry stated, “A military exercise involving preparation and use of tactical nuclear weapons started in the Southern military district.” Russia conducted the second phase of these exercises in collaboration with its closest military ally, Belarus, in June 2024.
Additionally, in the Barents Sea, Russia conducted exercises with its nuclear-powered submarines under the Northern Fleet, which also carried out naval exercises in the Atlantic Ocean. Through these exercises, Russia sent a clear message to NATO, indicating that it is well-prepared to meet any threats posed by NATO.
Another important point that needs to be underlined here is that to thwart NATO’s military adventure, Russia is also entering into a closer collaboration with Iran and China. The same was evident when these three countries carried out trilateral naval exercises in the strategically important Gulf of Oman, known as the “Maritime Security Belt 2024”. This exercise demonstrates that Iran and China may join the Russian side, in case of a war between NATO and Russia.
It can be stated that a new kind of balance of power is emerging in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war to counter NATO’s moves. This creates a new ‘security dilemma’ in global geopolitics. Similarly, President Putin’s recent visit to North Korea can also be seen as a move by Russia to broaden the anti-West alliance. The timing of Putin’s visit to North Korea in June 2024 is quite significant in the context of NATO’s planned offensive against Russia. The visit is important as Russia considers North Korea an important ally in the fight against the West, led by the US.
During Putin’s visit, Russia and North Korea signed an important strategic agreement called the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”. After signing the agreement, President Putin observed that “Russia and Korea conduct an independent and autonomous foreign policy and do not accept the language of blackmail and dictate. We are against the practice of applying politically motivated sanctions and restrictions. These illegitimate actions can only shatter the world’s political and economic system.”
One may recall that President Putin undertook a similar visit to China in May 2024. Like NATO, Russia also plans to create an anti-NATO and anti-West alliance. One of the ideological premises which brought Russia, Iran, and North Korea together is that all of them have been under Western sanctions for years and, given the opportunity, are interested in forming an anti-Western coalition. Although China maintains very good trade relations with the West, it also has disputes with the US on a number of strategic issues. Russia considers this a significant opportunity to create an anti-West coalition. Russian policymakers are also envisioning the creation of a new form of global order, distinct from that perceived by the West. Thus, it can be noted that Russia is using its war against Ukraine as a pretext to fight against the US-led Western order by mobilising like-minded countries.
Even in the post-Soviet space, Russia is revitalising the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) to checkmate any Western advancement in the Eurasian space. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated, “Together with our allies, we are strengthening the potential of the CSTO as a key regional defensive structure responsible for ensuring the security of the Organisation’s Member States and maintaining stability in Eurasia.” However, the CSTO is facing a crisis as Armenia plans to leave this body after the Nagorno-Karabakh fiasco.
Thus, Russia is also preparing itself fully to meet any eventuality in case of NATO’s aggression. One can observe from Russia’s and NATO’s strategies that although an actual war between the two has not broken out, it cannot be ruled out in the near future. It is important to highlight that if such a war occurs, it would be World War III.
Multilateral initiatives
The war between Russia and NATO is heading towards a final showdown, as evident from both sides’ attempts to mobilise support against each other. This may have a catastrophic impact on global geopolitics. Although some multilateral approaches are being initiated at the global level, such as the Ukraine Peace Summit and the G7 declaration, in a nutshell, both summits failed to achieve any tangible result that may de-escalate the situation. For instance, the Global Peace Summit in mid-June 2024 in Switzerland failed to make much headway in addressing the war. Though the Peace Summit brought out its own declaration and emphasised that “We believe that reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties,” it fell short of meaningful progress.
As expected, the Western countries supported Ukraine at the summit, but the Global South countries, led by India, refused to endorse the declaration. In this regard, the Global South countries took a different position and emphasised an inclusive peace process in which Russia would be a party. Thus, it can be added that the Western countries wanted to achieve a sense of legitimacy for NATO’s involvement in the stalemate.
Similarly, the G7 countries, in their declaration in Italy, proposed punitive sanctions on Russia, which might further aggravate the situation. The declaration stated, “We decided to make available approximately $50 billion leveraging the extraordinary revenues of the immobilised Russian sovereign assets, sending an unmistakable signal to President Putin. We are stepping up our collective efforts to disarm and defund Russia’s military-industrial complex.”
Examining the declaration further, it can be argued that it set the stage for the further escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Putin responded to the G7 Declaration by stating, “Western countries have frozen some of Russia’s assets and currency reserves. Now they are trying to invent some legal justification for their irreversible appropriation. On the other hand, despite all the crooked lawyerism, [legal means] theft will obviously remain and will not go unpunished.”
At the same time, Putin has also offered his model for a peace plan to resolve the lingering dispute between Russia and Ukraine. One precondition is that Ukraine should cut off its relations with NATO and withdraw its troops from the eastern part of Ukraine. Putin posited this as a move to negotiate with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Though this proposition by Putin failed to elicit any response from Ukraine, there is a need to arrive at a consensus to bring an end to the fratricidal war for the sake of humanity.
India’s policy options
One may recall here that since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, India has consistently advocated that only through bilateral negotiation the war will be resolved. In this regard, it is pertinent to mention the statement made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on India’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine war at the SCO Summit, Tashkent, which took place in September 2022. During his interaction with President Putin, PM Modi categorically stated, “Today’s era is not of war” and emphasised that “democracy, diplomacy and dialogue are such things that touch the world.” Similarly, at the Jeddah Summit in August 2023, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval highlighted the need to resolve disputes through bilateral negotiation.
At the Ukraine Peace Summit, India refused to sign the declaration, as previously mentioned. Speaking at the summit, Pavan Kapoor, Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs and India’s representative, highlighted that “a sustainable resolution of the conflict…acceptable to both parties can lead to abiding peace.” Thus, it can be stated that India took the right position by advocating the need for Russia’s involvement in the peace process to ensure ‘sustainable peace’.
Conclusion
The existing distrust between Russia and Ukraine appears further aggravated by NATO’s entry. NATO’s major aim is to use Ukraine as a base for its further enlargement into the post-Soviet Eurasian space. This is the major flashpoint between NATO and Russia. What is worrisome is that both sides are preparing for a nuclear showdown, which may have a larger impact on global geopolitics. In this context, there is a need for pragmatic engagement between Russia and NATO to resolve the disputes.
NATO should exercise greater caution in its involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. It should realise that in case of a nuclear war, other NATO member countries will also suffer. Russia and Ukraine should pursue acceptable negotiations to achieve ‘sustainable peace’ in the post-Soviet Eurasian space.
The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.