 "Cold War 2.0: Putin-Kim’s ‘elevated friendship’ threatens American order in East Asia")
The state visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea has sparked major debates defining the evolving dynamics in northeast Asia. For the first time in 24 years, a Russian Head of State has made an official visit to the ‘hermit kingdom’. Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s ‘elevated friendship’ has come to pose a big security question that may jeopardise the existing security architecture maintained by the US and its allies.
The ‘Strategic Partnership’ breakthrough achieved during Putin’s visit addresses the need to provide immediate military assistance to North Korea in an ‘event of attack by adversary state’. The tone of this partnership is similar to the Defence Treaty that once existed between the erstwhile USSR and North Korea.
While there remains ambiguity with reference to whether it is an alliance per se, the very fact that such an agreement has been reached is alarming and concerning. The North Korean state media has released the text of the agreement, highlighting broader cooperation in the areas of military, foreign policy, and trade.
An attribute to this evolving relationship between Russia and North Korea can be with reference to Russia’s ‘special operations’ in Ukraine since 2022. The sanctions imposed on Russia by the West and a stagnation in ammunition and resources have made Putin pursue closer ties with Pyongyang. Concurrently, North Korea under Kim Jong Un has famished due to rising poverty and unemployment, despite success in the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and other weapons of mass destruction. The relationship presents a dual-edged sword, if closely looked at.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsKey Details of the Agreement
Tensions in the Korean peninsula have escalated over time, and the Security Pact signed by Russia and North Korea further aggravates them. Putin’s commitment to provide weapons to the hermit kingdom carries detrimental threats to destabilise the Korean Peninsula. Putin had also mentioned a potential ‘arms shipment’ as a counter response to the unending support provided by NATO countries to Ukraine. North Korea, which views Russia’s attack on Ukraine as ‘right to self-defence’, greatly benefits out of these negotiations and agreements.
“In case any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of the DPRK and the Russian Federation,” Article 4 of the agreement stated, according to Reuters.
The development of military-technical cooperation between both countries is likely to accelerate. Previously, too, Russia had promised North Korea to provide niche technologies. The North Korean state media also highlighted the possibility of developing joint military capabilities and undergoing combined military training. The US and its allies have already alleged that Moscow has received ballistic missiles and ammunition from Pyongyang as the Ukraine war continues to dent Russia’s inventory.
The provision of technology is expected to be critical. North Korea is thought to have nuclear weapons, but lacks essential missile guidance systems, cutting-edge warhead design, and re-entry vehicle technologies, preventing the creation of modern, long-range nuclear weapons.
The new treaty identifies science and technology, space, the peaceful use of nuclear power, and artificial intelligence as areas for collaboration. It raises concerns that North Korea’s and Russia’s cooperation in such fields could assist Pyongyang’s nuclear programme, which is banned under UN sanctions.
Apart from the military-technical exchanges, the focus on elevating economic ties also made headlines. North Korea remains under an extreme array of UN sanctions and requires raw materials and other goods to provide for its famished population. In turn, North Korea would provide labour to the Russian Army for its fight against Ukraine. Putin was seen asserting the increase in trade turnover between the two countries.
Possible Regional Implications
The South Korean government has strongly opposed the move by summoning its Russian ambassador. Seoul has mentioned that it is likely to consider providing “lethal weapons” to Ukraine apart from humanitarian assistance. The National Security Advisor of South Korea, Chang Ho Jin, mentioned that the country will not be bound by anything with regard to its assistance to Ukraine if Russia provides North Korea with precision weapons. Despite the assurance provided by Russia, Seoul remains firm in its decision. Meanwhile, the US Navy’s aircraft carrier arrived at the Busan Naval Base to conduct a joint military drill with South Korea as a sign of upholding the US-South Korea alliance and a committed resolve against the aligned posture between Russia and North Korea.
The US, South Korea, and Japan will conduct joint military exercises in the region as a countermeasure to growing threats from North Korea. This will also result in further ‘cementing’ of ties between the US and its two spokes countries, ie, South Korea and Japan. NATO
Chief Jens Stoltenberg has also expressed concerns over the growing ‘Russian Security Umbrella’ in North East Asia.
The bonhomie achieved between North Korea and Russia has left an ‘unsettling imprint’ on China. Although no official statement on the visit was made by Chinese counterparts, it does undermine Beijing’s geopolitical exertion over Pyongyang. From China’s standpoint, close ties between Russia and North Korea provide a welcome distraction for the US. However, China is concerned that Russia’s offer of alternative backing for North Korea will erode its sway.
North Korea’s growing military cooperation with Russia challenges Beijing’s nearly exclusive geopolitical influence over Pyongyang. Beijing may also be concerned that the Russia-North Korea axis will draw the US, Japan, and South Korea closer together, increasing the US military presence near China.
Evolving Dynamics in the Region
The security architecture in northeast Asia represents similarity to ‘Cold War alliances’ and sends major concerns to all stakeholders in the region. The US Hub and Spokes architecture kept alive through its alliance with Japan, and South Korea is receiving constant pressure and losing geopolitical significance in the region. The pact between Russia and North Korea can be understood as the latter’s attempt to play a larger regional role in ousting the US security architecture and continuing its prominence in the region. However, a grave geopolitical implication looms with regards to the discourse on the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.
North Korea will have little to no incentive to pursue any talks on denuclearisation following South Korean President Yoon Seok Yeol’s strong conservative stance at reversing most policies of the soft Moon Jae-in government. The territorial dispute shared between Japan and Russia has aggravated in the wake of the Ukraine conflict.
The task for the US-Japan-South Korea triangle will be to provide each other with improved protection and reassurance against the prospect of warfare while also supporting the South Korea-Japan-China triangle’s efforts to prevent war, however fragile they may be.
The pact between Russia and North Korea leaves room for Japan, South Korea, and the US to enhance their burgeoning trilateral relationship achieved at Camp David last year. However, the growing axis like situation and a return to Cold War mentality driven by ‘ideology polarity’ may hint at the ‘revival of a new cold war between great and regional powers’. Although China remains cautious to enter any axis-like situation while aiming for great power rivalry with the US, it appears to adjust to the notion that its closest allies are challenging the West-led order.
The author is a Research Assistant at CENJOWS, New Delhi. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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