 "Chinese aggression in South China Sea will push Philippines more into American arms")
Speaking at a conference of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Philippine Defence Chief Gilberto Teodoro said this Tuesday that China is the “biggest disruptor” of peace in Southeast Asia. Tensions between Manila and Beijing over disputed reefs and waters in the South China Sea (SCS) have been on the rise in the last 12 months. Philippine and Chinese vessels have had showdowns.
On Monday, China claimed taking control measures over two Philippine Coast Guard ships that had entered waters near Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands to provide logistics relief to one of its ships at the reef. Interestingly, the Sabina Shoal is just 140 kilometres west of the Philippine island of Palawan. Hainan Island, China’s nearest major landmass, is nearly 1,200 kilometres away. Coast guard ships of both sides ply near the shoal. Manila fears Beijing is about to build an artificial island.
Beijing has tried to usurp nearly 3 million sq km of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by claiming or creating artificial islands in the SCS, much to the anger of many affected ASEAN countries that lost their rights. China built military infrastructure and continuously patrols to defend them. Most countries could at best protest in international forums against the much more powerful neighbour.
China–Philippines Relations
Bilateral relations between China and the Philippines were fairly close till the 1990s, peaking during the Philippine presidencies of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Rodrigo Duterte. Relations deteriorated due to territorial disputes in the SCS, particularly since the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff, and China’s expansive maritime claims. The policy of current Philippine President Bongbong Marcos aims to distance its relations with China in favour of the United States. The Xi Jinping-led Chinese Communist Party is working towards greater influence over the Philippines and the region in general while combating American influence. China continues to be the Philippines’ top trading partner. However, the average trust view of Filipinos towards China is negative.
Permanent Court of Arbitration Ruling
Philippines, one of the worst-affected countries of Chinese SCS aggression, had moved the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) against China under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. On July 12, 2016, the arbitral tribunal ruled in favour of the Philippines on most of its submissions. China refused to participate or accept the tribunal ruling. The Philippines has been seeking international support, especially from the US, to pressurise China to allow freedom of seas.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsRecent Incidents with China
In recent years, the Philippines has complained of China’s use of so-called grayzone tactics, or coercive actions that are just shy of armed conflict. But China has maintained its actions were professional and lawful. In June, the Philippine military said one of its sailors lost a thumb in a confrontation off the Second Thomas Shoal (also in the Spratlys) when the Chinese coast guard, welding sticks, knives, and an axe, also confiscated or destroyed Philippine equipment, including guns. This was typically akin to what the Chinese tried doing in Galwan on the India-China Line of Actual Control (LAC).
A video taken on August 19, 2024, and released on August 24, 2024, shows a Chinese air force fighter jet deploying flares near a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR), a civilian Cessna aircraft, as it flew a “maritime domain awareness flight” near Scarborough Shoal in the SCS. The Chinese fighter jet reportedly “engaged in irresponsible and dangerous manoeuvres.”
China’s foreign ministry later said that two Philippine military aircraft flew into its airspace over Subi Reef (the island, which Manila also claims) on August 22. The Chinese statement did not mention any August 19 incident over Scarborough Shoal, which China seized from the Philippines during the 2012 standoff. The Scarborough Shoal incident occurred hours after Philippine and Chinese coast guard vessels collided near Sabina Shoal, with the Filipino side reporting structural damage on both of its patrol ships.
Over the weekend, Manila urged Beijing to “immediately cease all provocative and dangerous actions that threaten the safety of Philippine vessels and aircraft engaged in legitimate and regular activities within Philippine territory and the Exclusive Economic Zone", as well as freedom of navigation and overflights.
Creating sufficient deterrence militarily was critical for the Philippines to show China it was serious about protecting its sovereignty and which it would fight for.
President Marcos Foreign Policy
Ferdinand Marcos Jr took over as the 17th President of the Philippines on June 30, 2022. Marcos initially sought closer ties with China so as not to be seen as pro-American and to balance between the two superpowers. Yet he publicly promised to “not preside over any process that will abandon even one square inch of territory of the Republic of the Philippines to any foreign power”.
Marcos intensified the Philippines’ economic and defence relations with Western countries, such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and the European Union, and strengthened defence posture within the region. Marcos approved the designation of four additional bases to be used by the United States military under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement.
Marcos openly called on all involved parties on the SCS to abide by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in order to diffuse potential conflicts in the future. Marcos’ “transparency thrust” also includes dealing squarely with the aggressive actions of the Chinese Coast Guard and the Chinese Maritime Militia. China-Philippines relations have significantly deteriorated during Marcos’s tenure, with increasing tensions over territorial disputes in the SCS and the Philippines withdrawing from the Belt and Road initiative (BRI).
The New Defence Policy
Marcos fully backs the military modernisation program and stated that the country’s external security situation is becoming “more complex and unpredictable”. Marcos has approved the “Re-Horizon 3” modernisation program. The $35 billion revised modernisation program will be spread out over 10 years and aims to modernise the Armed Forces of the Philippines based on the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defence Concept (CADC).
The aim is to strengthen the country’s external defence deterrence by projecting power within the Philippines’ 200-nautical-mile EEZ, especially in the Benham Rise, the Luzon Strait, and the Sulu Sea through inter-island defences and multi-layered domain and long-range strike capabilities. The concept also aims to strengthen the country’s aerial and maritime domain awareness, connectivity, and intelligence capabilities.
Due to the lower risks in the country’s insurgencies, lessons from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and keeping in mind the potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, training focus has been shifted to operations against external threats.
Manila plans to strengthen Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), electronic warfare capabilities, and position air defence systems with enough munitions. Recently, Marcos announced plans to acquire the Philippines’ first submarine. The French-based Naval Group, along with other contenders, has offered its Scorpène-class submarines to strengthen the Navy.
Philippines-US Relations
The Philippines’ strategic location and deep military ties to the US make it very important for US regional presence and strategy. Since taking office in 2022, Marcos has embraced a US-centric foreign policy, granting Washington access to nine military sites under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement and to deploy a new missile system.
In May 2024, the Philippines and the United States held their largest Balikatan military exercises. The deployment of the United States’ Strategic Mid-range Typhon Weapons System in an undisclosed location in northern Luzon also caught the attention of both Russia and China. The Typhon is capable of firing SM-6 anti-aircraft and Tomahawk Land Attack missiles, with operational ranges of more than 240 km and 2,500 km, respectively. The deployment of the powerful US Typhon missile system would be a critical deterrent against Chinese aggression.
US Navy ships could escort Filipino vessels on resupply missions in the SCS, said American Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, after the series of recent maritime and air confrontations between the Philippines and China in the SCS. Escort of vessels is within the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty that binds Washington to defend the Philippines in case of armed attacks on its forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the SCS. That treaty has already proved a “great deterrent”, and Washington has repeatedly reaffirmed its “ironclad” commitment to it.
The Philippine military chief clarified that they preferred to run those missions on their own, despite what Manila calls China’s “dangerous” and “coercive” actions. But the Philippines would seek alternatives if it found itself constrained from doing so, not just from the United States but also with other like-minded nations,” he added.
Some pro-China analysts, though, warn that the Philippines faces becoming collateral damage in a potential nuclear showdown between the US and China-Russia-North Korea combined. I feel that is too far-fetched. More realistically, China could target sites across the Philippines with hypersonic missile strikes.
China-ASEAN Relations
China’s relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has seen its ebbs and flows. Historically, China considered ASEAN as an instrument designed to “encircle China” and therefore kept a safe distance from the regional body. But in recent years, China has actively engaged with ASEAN-led institutions, including the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN plus One (China), ASEAN plus Three (China, Japan, South Korea), and the East Asia Summit. It is the major trading partner with all.
China claims sovereignty over nearly all of the SCS, but its territorial dispute over islands and maritime claims involves Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
Despite SCS territorial issues, Indonesia has strategic partnerships with both the US and China and is close to China. Despite China’s regular intrusions in Malaysia’s maritime economic zone, Malaysia has avoided a confrontational posturing.
Vietnam and China fought a war in 1979, and they have territorial disputes in SCS over Spratly and Paracel Islands, yet Vietnam prefers to manage relations using diplomacy. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Vietnam in December 2023, just months after Hanoi strengthened ties with the US. Just a few days ago, Vietnam’s President Lam went to Beijing on his first state visit since becoming his country’s top leader.
The ASEAN country closest to China is Cambodia, often accused of kowtowing to China. Thailand maintains good relations with China and remains equidistant with the US. This is despite China’s damming of Mekong that affects its agriculture. Laos depends greatly on Chinese loans. They are committed to building a “community of shared future”. Myanmar and China are close to each other economically and on BRI projects but have differences between border tribes.
Brunei is the only ASEAN country that has reached a consensus with China on how to address the SCS dispute. Singapore navigates its close relations with both China and the US very deftly.
Way Ahead
Before Spain colonised the Philippines, Imperial China acknowledged the existence of several precolonial Philippine kingdoms. During the Cold War, Taiwan and the Philippines were part of the anti-communist camp that viewed the Chinese Communists as a security threat. The Philippines recognised the Chinese communist government only in 1975.
Only in 2009, the Philippines and China signed the Joint Action Plan for Strategic Cooperation, a five-year agreement to increase cooperation in all areas. In 2016, the two created the biannual Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the SCS, a process that allowed the two nations to peacefully manage disputes and strengthen their relations. The Philippines was one of the few countries that defended China’s policies in Xinjiang till 2019.
Initially a mild supporter of China’s BRI, in 2023, the Philippines withdrew from the initiative. In 2023, the Philippines imported $30.93 billion from China, and China exported $52.4 billion to the Philippines. A significant part of the Philippine economy is owned by Chinese Filipinos, who prefer peaceful resolution of the SCS dispute. There are 24 pairs of sister cities or sister provinces between China and the Philippines.
The most important issue remains the disputes over the sovereignty of some islands and shoals in the Spratly Islands in SCS. China conducts grey-zone operations in these waters. Rising tensions have led the Philippines to invest further in its military forces and to deepen cooperation with the United States and Japan. Since the 2012 Scarborough Shoal standoff, relations between the two countries have soured greatly after China pursued to occupy Scarborough Shoal, which has been in Philippine possession until the standoff. In 2016, the dash-line created by China was declared invalid by the South China Sea Arbitration ruling. Since 2019, Chinese ships have been swarming Philippine-controlled areas in the SCS through a cabbage strategy.
In 2023, the Philippines accused China of parking its navy and coast guard vessels near Scarborough Shoal. As a result, Philippine vessels cannot pass through this area. The Philippines called this a floating barrier. Finally, August 2024 saw further incidents.
Since 2022, thousands of Chinese students have enrolled in private universities in Cagayan, a Philippine province facing Taiwan, most of whom were not attending classes. The Chinese government has invested heavily in Cagayan and attempted to woo local political elites as part of their grayzone operations. It is an area of serious concern.
It can be seen that the Philippines is being pressed hard by Xi Jinping’s aggressive China. Manila has no choice but to look to the US and its allies for security concerns. Offering of bases to the US military will make the Philippines the playground of rising global confrontation in the Indo-Pacific. One can expect rising tensions as the US positions more missiles, aircraft, and ships in the archipelago.
The writer is former Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
 "Russian drones over Poland: Trump’s tepid reaction a wake-up call for Nato?")
 "As Russia pushes east, Ukraine faces mounting pressure to defend its heartland")
 "Why Mossad was not on board with Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar")
 "Turkey: Erdogan's police arrest opposition mayor Hasan Mutlu, dozens officials in corruption probe")
