China’s high-stakes gamble: Testing American resolve in South China Sea

The week-long ASEAN summit in Vientiane, Laos, from 6 to 12 October, witnessed stern exchanges between China and the US and the Philippines, especially over the South China Sea. While Chinese Premier Li Qiang blamed “external forces” without naming any country for interfering in regional affairs, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the US was concerned about increasingly dangerous and unlawful activities of China in the disputed South China Sea. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr complained to ASEAN leaders that his country continues to be subjected to Chinese bullying and intimidation. Earlier in the week, Prime minister Narendra Modi attended the 19th India-ASEAN meeting and made a powerful presentation of New Delhi’s Act East policy, while criticising China for its expansionist policy in the South China Sea.

At a time when the West is preoccupied with the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East — the latter threatening to escalate into a regional war — and the US is preoccupied with the presidential elections, China has been testing the waters in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea (referred to as the West Philippine Sea by Filipinos). It has conducted several incursions against Filipino boats to gauge how far the US will go in its support. Filipino vessels in their EEZ have faced intimidation and bullying by Chinese coast guard ships over the dispute at Thomas Shoal 2, where the Sierra Madera, a Philippine vessel, has been grounded since 1999 to assert its sovereignty. The Chinese are also active and defiant against Japan in the East China Sea, having recently crossed the First Island Chain for the first time with an aircraft carrier and two warships.

Taiwan continues to face periodic challenges as China relentlessly violates the 2016 UNCLOS ruling that the Philippines secured over China’s illegal claims to the South China Sea under its nine-dash line.

During my interaction with Philippine security experts in Manila in June, clashes over the resupply of Thomas Shoal 2 had reached a climax, with some experts suggesting it could be a feint for Taiwan. The incident caused significant concern in Manila, with vocal calls to invoke the 1951 Mutual Defence Agreement with the US, which only comes into effect in the event of an armed external attack. Clashes have continued between the two sides, and despite ongoing talks and the establishment of a hotline, no compromise has been reached.

On 28 September, a Chinese Navy missile boat reportedly fired laser beams at a Philippine Cessna patrol aircraft, while Filipino coast guard vessels continue to be pursued. The Chinese insist that the resupply of the marooned ship should occur under their supervision, and during a mid-August clash, several Chinese ships blocked passage of Filipino supplies for the stranded ship.

The Chinese have claimed that the Philippine ship is illegally stranded at the disputed Thomas Shoal, which China asserts ownership of as part of its claim to the South China Sea. China refers to the area as Xianbin Reef, located 150 km west of the Philippine island of Palawan. Repeatedly, China has stated that it will enforce its maritime laws, including the use of firearms and the arrest of offenders, to defend its sovereignty and national interest.

In late August, Philippine Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro firmly asserted that Thomas Shoal is a sovereignty issue for the Philippines. According to the South China Morning Post (16 September), Admiral Samuel Paparo of the US Indo-Pacific Command, accompanied by General Romeo Brawner Jr., Chief of the Philippine Armed Forces, mentioned a range of options as countermeasures for China’s grey-zone tactics. He further stated that the US is prepared to escort Philippine ships in the South China Sea if hostilities between Beijing and Manila escalate. General Brawner also noted that they would seek US assistance if Chinese forces block food supplies, endangering their soldiers.

In June, I was asked whether resupply by other means, such as helicopters, was feasible, and I suggested discussing it with their US allies. Meanwhile, Admiral Paparo held a video call with General Wu Yanan, Commander of the PLA Southern Theatre, who was expected to attend an international conference at the Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii at the end of September.

Philippine Defence Minister Teodoro recently took the contingency of escalation to the next level, by warning that any attempt by China to tow away the grounded Sierra Madre would be considered an act of war, in which case the Philippines would expect its US ally to intervene. Hu Bo, Director of the Beijing-based think tank, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, stated that “towing away the ship is not a good option and is not necessary.”

Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the issue in Beijing with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Wang cautioned that the US must not use its bilateral treaties as an excuse to undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, nor should it support or condone the Philippines’ actions, which Beijing views as infringements. The impasse over the stranded ship on the disputed atoll remains unresolved. China is also likely to oppose the deployment of a replacement ship, as sought by the Philippines. Additionally, Beijing has voiced its objections to the deployment of the US Typhon Cruise Missile system in the Philippines.

On 25 September, China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean, marking the first such launch in 44 years. The missile, believed to be the road-mobile Dong Feng 41, has a range of 12,000 km and was launched from Hainan Island. In Taipei, PLA expert Lin Ying-yu remarked, “It was to show the US that China can reach their territory.” He added that it also showed that Chinese Rocket Forces are not impaired by attrition of generals. Others suggested the launch was a diversion from last month’s submarine sinking incident.

The escalating contest over Indo-Pacific will continue. On China’s National Day, 1 October, President Xi Jinping reiterated that Taiwan is China’s sacred territory. In a paper by the Hudson Institute, Japan’s new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, referred to the Quad as an “Asian NATO”, precisely what the Chinese have accused it of. However, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar clarified that India does not share that view, reflecting the uncertainty around the strategic intent of the Quad.

The Malabar naval exercise, involving Quad nations, commenced on 9 October in the Indian Ocean. Prior to this, the armed forces of five countries — the US, Philippines, Australia, Japan, and, for the first time, New Zealand—conducted a maritime exercise within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), while China held parallel drills elsewhere in the South China Sea (SCS). The SCS is claimed by several nations, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Vietnam, and Malaysia. China warned Malaysia to halt oil and gas exploration in the region, to which Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim responded, “China is a great friend, but we must operate in our waters to secure economic advantage, including drilling for oil in our territory.” China continues to follow its “Blue Dragon” strategy of encroaching into the EEZs of ASEAN countries.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Laos to attend the India-ASEAN meeting, advancing Delhi’s Act East policy. A Code of Conduct for ASEAN nations regarding activities in the South China Sea (SCS) has been under discussion for two decades, but is nowhere near fruition. The situation is akin to India’s Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, which Beijing has refused to resolve, as doing so would put a stop to its grey-zone tactics and “salami slicing” strategies. India has expressed unequivocal support for the Philippines, particularly following the 17 June clash with the Chinese coast guard. India has also sold BrahMos anti-ship missiles to Manila, making the Philippines the first nation to acquire them. Last month, India’s Defence Secretary, Giridhar Aramane, visited Manila for the fifth Joint Defence Dialogue.

Whether the Philippines is a feint for Taiwan while there is a “lame-duck” President Biden in office is hard to swallow. However, there remains a possibility that Thomas Shoal 2 may end up in Chinese possession, similar to what occurred with Mischief Reef, just 24 km north, in 2012.

The author is former GOC IPKF South Sri Lanka and founder member Defence Planning Staff, now Integrated Defence Staff, Ministry of Defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.