 "Illegal and outrageous detention of Indian passenger in Shanghai shows India’s strategy of ‘managing’ China is not working")
Since last October, India and China have been inching towards restoring of normalcy in bilateral ties through a series of calibrated confidence-building measures and high-level engagements. The illegal and arbitrary detention of Prema Wangjom Thongdok, a UK-based Indian citizen from Arunachal Pradesh at Shanghai airport shows all assumptions of a ‘thaw’ in relationship is premature, hollow and might even be illusory.
The detention wasn’t an administrative oversight. It was an audacious play and a calculated slight aimed at humiliating an Indian citizen and challenging the sovereignty of India. Beijing wanted to send multiple messages. It wanted to tell New Delhi that it controls the levers of the ties, that this is not a relationship between equals, and peace and tranquility in the border regions is not the result of a compact between two sovereigns but an ‘act of magnanimity’ extended by China that it can dial up or down when it wishes to.
The extraordinary circumstances of mocking an Indian citizen for her passport, laughing and saying things like, “You should apply for the Chinese passport; you’re Chinese; you’re not Indian…”, signifies contempt for India’s sovereign claim over its own land. The Communist Party of China is a not a reckless actor. It knows that not only can it get away with such behaviour, but it can also use acts like these to cumulatively shift the status quo in its favour without triggering large-scale war or a unified pushback.
These deliberate approaches sit delicately between peace and open conflict, exploiting asymmetric risk appetites and the reluctance of rivals to escalate over “minor” incidents. Beijing is aware that beyond some outrage in media and official righteous indignation, New Delhi will prioritise crisis management and avoid uncontrolled escalation.
The reality is India needs Chinese investment and lacks the means and capabilities to mitigate the threat posed by a much stronger adversary. A successful preemption of this behaviour – that India will walk on eggshells despite being punched in the gut – incentivises Beijing to keep testing the line with new ‘small’ moves rather than large, overt offensives.
Consider for a moment that the incident was flipped on its head and India had refused to acknowledge the Chinese passport of a Tibetan citizen transiting through New Delhi. We don’t have to wonder or rack our brains.
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View AllLook at Japan. For the ‘crime’ of suggesting that China’s attack on Taiwan may be considered as a “survival-threatening situation” and Japan may be forced to mobilise (Japan’s Yonaguni island is just about 110 km off Taiwan’s east coast) its troops – an adopted but rarely articulated policy – Beijing is hauling Tokyo over the coals.
There has been a torrent of vicious abuse and military threats against Japan, a slew of economic sanctions including banning of Japanese imports and people-to-people exchanges including tourism, and an open demand that Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi officially withdraw her comments, which Tokyo has not accepted while trying desperately to tamp down the tension.
As China’s state-sponsored media has reported, “Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun on Thursday dismissed the claim by Japan’s main opposition party leader that PM Takaichi had effectively withdrawn her previous remarks on the Taiwan question since she ‘no longer mentioned any specifics’ during a recent party leaders’ debate, saying that ‘not mentioning any specifics’ and ‘withdrawing the erroneous remarks’ are two entirely different matters. ‘The Japanese side’s attempt to downplay, evade or cover up Takaichi’s erroneous remarks through ‘not mentioning any specifics’ is nothing but self-deception,’ Guo said. ‘China absolutely does not accept this’.”
It is not enough that Takaichi has effectively withdrawn her comments made on the floor of the Japanese Parliament. Beijing wants the Japanese prime minister to grovel and beg for an apology that will destroy her political career. That’s Beijing’s unstated goal. The CPC has always been sceptical of Takaichi who considers herself as a protégé of former PM, the late Shinzo Abe. China’s view of Takaichi has been overwhelmingly negative, framing her as a dangerous hawk, revivalist of Japanese militarism, and a direct threat to China’s core interests.
Be it needling India or colliding with Japan, China suddenly seems less constrained, more assertive and intent on muscle flexing, almost as if it senses a tectonic shift in global power equation with United States all but acknowledging China as a peer power and seeking a ‘new type of power relations’ that had always been a priority for Xi Jinping.
China’s confidence also stems from the fact that Xi believes he has Donald Trump’s number. He believes Trump will be increasingly desperate to seal a trade deal with Beijing and make compromises on issues such as Taiwan and export controls.
As former CIA operative Jonathan A. Czin writes in Foreign Affairs, “Beijing is likely planning its diplomacy with the Trump administration around next year’s midterm elections, betting that Trump will be eager to secure a deal he can tout on the campaign trail in support of Republicans—and that in his eagerness, he may end up making significant concessions.”
Having withstood the onslaught from US and forced Washington to sue for peace through effective use of export control measures of its own, China feels supremely self-assured. It expects neighbours such as India or Japan to internalize the message that it is now every bit a superpower, and therefore others must bend their heads and fall in line.
Beijing has been proved right. The outrageous act of detaining an Indian passenger on illegal grounds that violate several civil aviation conventions was met with source-based retorts from New Delhi, with Indian media reporting that MEA has issued a “strong demarche” with the Chinese side, and “it was stressed that the passenger had been detained on ludicrous grounds. Arunachal Pradesh is indisputably Indian territory, and its residents are perfectly entitled to hold and travel with Indian passports.”
China’s response was brutal. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning went for public defiance, claiming that “Zangnan (China’s christening of Arunachal Pradesh) is China’s territory, and China does not recognize the so-called ‘Arunachal Pradesh’ illegally established by India. As for the individual case you mentioned, I’ve shared relevant information just now. Let me point out that having border checks on people entering and exiting a country and carrying out law enforcement according to the specific situation of the entry or exit is the usual practice of border enforcement authorities of countries across the world.”
China also lied about the passenger being offered food, water and restroom services – claims that are demonstrably false. India’s response to this outrageous statement from Beijing was careful and non-escalatory.
In its first official response, India stated that “Arunachal Pradesh is an integral and inalienable part of India, and this is a self-evident fact. No amount of denial by the Chinese side is going to change this indisputable reality.”
New Delhi added that the “issue of the detention has been taken up strongly with the Chinese side. Chinese authorities have still not been able to explain their actions, which are in violation of several conventions governing international air travel. The actions by the Chinese authorities also violate their own regulations that allow visa free transit up to 24 hours for nationals of all countries.”
In the weekly press briefing, the spokesperson from India’s ministry of external affairs added that “Maintenance of peace and tranquility in the border regions is a prerequisite for the continued and overall development of India–China bilateral relations. Our position in this regard has always been very clear and consistent.
“Since October 2024, both sides have worked closely to maintain peace and tranquility in the border regions, and it is on this basis that progress—especially in particular focus on people-centric engagements—has been made. Arbitrary actions by China, as the one that I refer to, involving an Indian citizen from Arunachal Pradesh, are most unhelpful towards efforts being made by both sides to build mutual trust and understanding and gradually move towards normalization of bilateral relations.”
I am citing India’s response in detail because it shows that even while criticizing Beijing for its indefensible act, India is careful not to let the tension intensify even though China has pretty much challenged India’s sovereign claim over Arunachal. In contrast, China has been going after Japan with all the ferocity at its disposal for much less.
Put simply, India lacks the wherewithal to seek a standalone, symmetric confrontation across all domains against China. It uses balancing and positional defence to counter the threat, while exploiting its consumer market as a leverage to manage the rivalry. The Arunachal Pradesh incident proves that this strategy is not working and might be subjected to even sterner tests going ahead from a more assertive China.
(The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)
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