China border deal: A step in right direction, but India should remain watchful

A few days ago, speaking at the Army Commanders’ Conference in Gangtok, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stated that he was ‘cautiously optimistic’ about border talks with China aiming at resolving the standoff in eastern Ladakh. At that time, he also expressed full confidence in the Army’s ability to handle any situation or tensions along the border.

Very few were aware that full-fledged negotiations involving the Indian Army and the Ministry of External Affairs were taking place till October 21 when Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that India and China had reached an agreement on patrolling along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

When implemented, it should help the two nations to take the next step in the bilateral relations. It will also mark the end of the long and bitter standoff at different locations in eastern Ladakh; let us not forget the Galwan clash on June 15, 2020 (on Xi Jinping’s birthday) in which 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives.

In what India Today called a ‘massive breakthrough’, India and China agreed to resume patrolling along the LAC, a move which could lead to disengagement: “The announcement came ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia today for the 16th BRICS Summit where he may hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.”

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri explained: “Over the last several weeks, Indian and Chinese diplomatic and military negotiators have been in close contact with each other in a variety of forums. As a result of the discussions that have taken place over the last several weeks, an agreement has been arrived at on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border area and this is leading to disengagement and eventually a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.”

About a possible bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Summit in Kazan, Misri said, “We are still working around the time and engagements”."

Foreign Minister Dr S. Jaishankar later confirmed that the agreement includes patrolling in Depsang and Demchok areas, the last areas of friction. Last month, the Minister had mentioned that about 75 per cent of the disengagement at the border had been resolved.

Also last month, when Ajit Doval, the National Security Adviser, met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of a BRICS meeting with officials responsible for security matters in St Petersburg (Russia), India and China agreed to work with ‘urgency and redouble efforts’ to ensure complete disengagement. At this meeting, Doval told Wang that peace and tranquility on the border and respect for the LAC were essential for the return of normalcy in bilateral ties.

 No Disengagement as yet

A positive point: China seems to have dropped its suggestions that the PLA troops should be allowed to patrol in two sensitive areas along the border in Arunachal Pradesh. According to The Tribune: “The two spots — one in the Yangtse area north-east of Tawang, where the two sides had a deadly clash in December 2022, and the second in central Arunachal along the Subansiri river valley — have been firmly under Indian control for decades.”

This request from China has not been mentioned in the minister’s statement.

However, despite the titles of the Indian media, the agreement is not about ‘disengagement’, it is about patrolling only: “We reached that agreement on patrolling. We have gone back to where we were in 2020,” said Jaishankar while speaking at the NDTV World Summit.

Disengagement is a far more difficult proposition and one can seriously doubt that it will happen soon, simply because China has been developing the border areas on their side at very fast pace.

A few days before the agreement, Indian News channels reported that satellite imagery showed “significant Chinese construction activity, 38 km from the 2020 standoff point, raising fresh concerns over border infrastructure.” A new Chinese settlement had appeared on the northern bank of Pangong tso (lake).

India Today says: “Chinese construction includes over 100 buildings, possibly for military use, strategic location behind peaks limits visibility, may serve as forward base.” The ‘village’ is located just outside India’s territorial claims.

Captured by Maxar Technologies on October 9, images show the construction on a 17-hectares area, at an altitude of 4,347m; according to Y. Nithiyanandam, Professor & Head of the Geospatial Research Programme at the Takshashila Institution in Bangalore: “More than 100 buildings, including residential structures and larger administrative buildings, are being built. Open spaces and flattened land suggest possible future use for parks or sports facilities.”

Some 10 km away from the new village (which is not really for dual use, but more for military purposes), the PLA has reclaimed some shallow waters adjacent to the Nangchung Naval Base. Once this work is completed, the PLA will be able to park more high-speed boats to patrol the lake.

Satellite imagery also shows that on the way up to Black Top, near the Spangur gap, north of Chushul, the PLA has completed a helistrip and constructed new multi storied structures, which will be part of an overall PLA complex. All this does not translate into disengagement on the ground, quite the contrary.

At the end of 2023, a new bridge was also being built a few kilometers east of the naval base where the lake is very narrow; it is located near the Khurnak Fort – the traditional border with Tibet.

The new ‘village’ and bridge as well as the enlarged naval base are game changers.

That is not all; in 2023, it came to light that China was busy building a new highway near the LAC. The Newsweek reported: “China is on the verge of completing a new highway near its contested border with India, potentially allowing for the rapid mobilisation of People’s Liberation Army troops during a conflict as the military standoff between the two Asian giants continues.” The new road which closely follows the LAC is known as G695 national highway.

Another road linking Xinjiang to Tibet, the G216 is under construction, it will be an alternate route for the G219, known as the Aksai Chin, which has been extended from 2,500 km to 10,000 km from Northern Xinjiang to China’s mainland.

How future disengagement translates on the ground is not clear. Will China (and India) disengage at these strategic locations? Only the future will tell.

BRICS Summit in Russia

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to attend the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia; the meet will mainly focus on global challenges and cooperation. This will be the first summit of the group following its expansion last year. The grouping, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (added in 2010), has recently been expanded to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Foreign Secretary Misri said that India views BRICS as crucial for global multipolarity and addressing global challenges …the grouping also serves as a vital platform to tackle a range of global challenges, while also contributing to shaping a fairer, more exclusive and open international order.”

A study by the think tank ORF noted: “As per various estimates, the strength of the BRICS organisation has already surpassed that of the G7 in terms of purchasing power parity. Further expansion will imply the interest of the global majority converging, not with the West under the US leadership, but with its rival bloc. …Not to mention, any progress on the BRICS settlement system or reserve currency, may have a significant impact on the US and the global economy.”

The think tank adds: “India’s position on issues like BRICS expansion and de-dollarisation can have a direct bearing on the decisions of other members, who may be keen to explore new economic opportunities under the forum.”

There is no doubt that India and China have been keen to show the entrants that there is no deep division among them, this resulted in a forward move on the LAC.

The border agreement is a small, but important step forward in the right direction, but the boundary issue is a complicated affair and more time will be required to move ahead further as it is also linked to the entire development on the Tibetan plateau, for example, issues like the construction of a mega-dam on the border of Arunachal Pradesh or the reopening of the Kailash and Tsari Yatra.

The border agreement is also a clear message for the West: India and China can find solutions to their problems on their own, without the necessity of foreign mediation.

The writer is Distinguished Fellow, Centre of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (Delhi). Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.