Bangladesh crisis: How India should deal with Islamist radicalisation and proxy play in the region

“A state could be at risk from four different kinds of threats—internal, external, externally-aided internal, and internally-aided external,” said Kautilya in his Arthashastra circa 300 BCE.

India’s geopolitical landscape is shaped by the success of its foreign policy in particular towards its neighbouring countries, each of which presents unique opportunities and challenges. Any turmoil in the immediate neighbourhood is also fraught with spillover vulnerabilities to national security.

In recent years, the twin forces of Islamist radicalisation and power play by China have significantly impacted these relationships, raising concerns about India’s periphery. India’s immediate neighbourhood, be it Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Maldives, or Myanmar, is facing a political, economic, and military crisis that has impacted regional stability and created space for proxy play by out-of-regional powers. The balanced neighbours are equally volatile and balancing Chinese footprints.

The aftermath of Sheikh Hasina’s exit and political turbulence in Bangladesh presents a complex geopolitical landscape unfolding in South Asia. The country’s strategic location and importance in the region and its interplay with major powers, including China and the United States, make the canvas complex. This could significantly impact regional stability and security and India’s external and internal dimensions.

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Broader Implications for ‘Viksit Bharat’

India today faces all four types of threats stated by Kautilya. There are apprehensions that such orchestrated political instability in the neighbourhood could be part of a larger strategy to limit India, politically, militarily, and economically, in its trajectory of Viksit Bharat, which could upset many an apple cart. The idea is that by fostering unrest in neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Maldives, and Myanmar, a coalition of Muslim-majority nations could emerge, united in opposition to India. This, in turn, could place immense pressure on Indian democracy and regional stability.

Further, the potential inflow of large numbers of Bangladeshi, Rohingya, and Ahmadiyya Muslims across India’s borders, possibly as part of a border demographic shift strategy to influence the creation of fake voters, poses a grave challenge. This could lead to undesired foreign influence, undermining India’s sovereignty, secular identity and democratic integrity. The silver lining remains India’s Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which acts as a safeguard to an extent against such manipulation.

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Strategic Importance of Bangladesh

For India, Bangladesh is strategically important in maintaining regional security and economic stability. Even for Bangladesh, a friendly India serves its interests best for the nation and the people. Culture, connectivity, and commerce define the relationship that was woven through the tapestry of the birth of the nation. The 4,096-kilometre shared border and proximity to the Bay of Bengal make Bangladesh strategically vital. Any shift in Dhaka’s foreign policy could have direct implications for India’s security, both on the land and oceanic front, particularly with Chinese hegemonic design becoming a reality.

China’s incremental strategy to expand its footprints and influence in South Asia is a geopolitical challenge for India. Bangladesh considers China as a strategic partner. In 2002, China and Bangladesh signed a “Defence Cooperation Agreement”, which covers military training and defence production. This military partnership and infrastructure projects, coupled with its strategic interests in the Bay of Bengal, pose a potential challenge to India’s security concerns in the region. China is Bangladesh’s highest trading partner, with over $25 billion invested in various flagship projects like the Padma Bridge Rail Link Project. Increasing Chinese presence in the region is de facto a denial of space to India’s regional and global aspirations.

Bangladesh has also witnessed a rise in radical Islamist activities with the emergence of groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), and Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT). The 2016 Dhaka café attack, which left 29 people dead, remains a stark reminder. According to the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), there were over 100 radicalisation-related arrests in 2022, indicating an ongoing security challenge. Sheikh Haseena had resisted such terror and radical forces with an iron fist. However, with the recent revolt and her ouster, radical Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) exploited the chaos, targeting minorities thereby attempting to establish their influence in the power vacuum. This rise of radical Islamist forces and its influence in India remains a destabilising factor.

Extra Regional Powerplay in Bangladesh

The Awami League under Sheikh Hasina had sustained an independent foreign policy, often clashing with the interests of China, the US, Pakistan, and Islamist radicals. The volcanic eruption was thus orchestrated with the recent upheaval in Bangladesh, where rising unemployment and dissatisfaction with a reservation quota sparked widespread protests. These protests have been possibly orchestrated by various external forces eager to see the Hasina government ousted.

The United States’ strategic concern in China’s growing footprints sought Bangladesh as a potential military ally in the region. They helped Bangladesh in countering Islamist extremism and overseeing assistance in the Rohingya crisis. The interest in establishing a military base at Saint Martin’s Island as a broader strategy to counter China’s growing presence in the Indo-Pacific region seems plausible, though officially denied by US representatives. This was denied by Bangladesh in quest of its independent foreign policy, which led to strained relations. The US thus criticised Sheikh Hasina for her autocratic tendencies and imposed visa sanctions.

China, with a strategic vision, has deepened its ties with Bangladesh through significant investments in infrastructure and defence, including in critical projects like the Padma Bridge Rail Link and the construction of military facilities. China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, and its substantial contribution to Bangladesh’s military arsenal makes the linkage strong. Recently, Bangladesh preferred India over China to execute the $1 billion Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration project. This had strategic implications and created a strained relationship with Beijing, wherein Hasina’s recent visit to China got a cold shoulder. China’s footprints aim at restricting India-Bangladesh relations and the strategic linkage of India to Southeast Asia. These manoeuvres include efforts to divert Indian military focus from the Chinese border by inciting unrest in regions like Jammu and Northeast India, posing a threat to Indian lives in Bangladesh, and testing Indian diplomacy and foreign policy.

Implications of Regime Change

The ouster of Sheikh Hasina is a watershed moment, with potential repercussions that extend beyond the country’s borders. The political, economic, and military trajectory of the new regime’s foreign and domestic policies could redefine Bangladesh’s trajectory and international relations. The path ahead is fraught with uncertainty, and the decisions made in the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of the nation. It also poses the possible challenge of a more radical and Islamist nation, thereby conflicting with India’s interests.

The role of the military in Hasina’s ouster cannot be overlooked. After all, the military gave a 45-minute notice for Hasina to leave, not the protestors. Events suggest that the military might play a more prominent role in the country’s political affairs and raise concerns about the future of democratic governance in Bangladesh. Historically, military involvement in politics in Bangladesh has often led to a reduction in civilian oversight and democratic freedom.

Internal political instability could also lead to economic fragility and an increase in radicalisation of society. The possibility of increased powerplay and proxies by extra-regional forces also looms large. The United States and China will both try and establish their footprints and view each other as a threat to their strategic interests in the region. Bangladesh must not succumb to becoming another pawn. India will likely be impacted by this regional instability, particularly its impact on border security and internal security.

The interim government, led by figures like Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus, could provide a temporary solution, but it also introduces uncertainty about the future of elections and governance in Bangladesh. There could be a shift in foreign investment strategies, with the new government possibly favouring partnerships with countries that align more closely with its political ideology. Additionally, there might be an increased emphasis on social welfare programs, environmental sustainability, and economic diversification, marking a departure from the more market-driven approach of Hasina’s government.

India’s Approach to the New Regime

India’s approach to Bangladesh must be nuanced in a strategic long-term outlook. India must accept the reality of the change and engage in high-level diplomatic dialogues with the interim government in Bangladesh to reaffirm its commitment to the people of Bangladesh and the early restoration of democracy and peace in the region.

Emphasising shared beneficial ties can help maintain goodwill and send a strategic message of being sensitive to India’s concerns, be it China, Islamist fundamentalism, or the protection of minorities. Simultaneously, India must ensure the safety of its citizens and Hindus in Bangladesh, besides extra vigil on the borders, including China.

While China offers Bangladesh significant financial and military incentives, India must leverage its cultural and historical ties and economic and geographical proximity to maintain a stable positive relationship. This could involve expanding economic cooperation, offering competitive military assistance, and enhancing connectivity projects under the frameworks of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

India’s engagement with Bangladesh must also take into account the broader regional dynamics, including the shifting geopolitics of Myanmar and Thailand, both of which play significant roles in the Bay of Bengal’s architecture. India’s ability to have a sound neighbourhood foreign policy will be crucial in securing its long-term strategic interests in South Asia.

Conclusion

India’s relations with its neighbours are increasingly influenced by the twin challenges of Islamist radicalisation and extra-regional proxy play. These dynamics have profound implications for India’s national security, requiring a multifaceted and proactive approach to safeguard its interests in the region. Our strategic intelligence apparatus must also be vitalised to be preemptive and proactive.

India must adopt a comprehensive and proactive approach to navigate the emerging dynamics of Bangladesh. By combining diplomatic engagement, economic initiatives, security measures, cultural diplomacy, and leveraging shared growth, India can strengthen its influence, secure its interests, and foster stability and prosperity in the region.

The author is former Director General Mechanised Forces. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.