Bangladesh: ‘After Sheikh Hasina, who?’, the unasked question

For the record, she is the world’s longest-serving woman head of government – a total of 19 years thus far, 13 of them unbroken, since 2009. Yet, at 75, Bangladesh is not asking the question that it should be asking: ‘After Hasina, who?’. Rather, the leader herself is not asking as to who after her time, for the party identified more with her slain father, ‘Bangabandhu’ Sheikh Mujibur Rehman than its early founders – and more so for the nation that has got used to her being at the helm. Considering that Sheikh Hasina Wazed has been prime minister for nearly 20 years in a total of 52 since the nation was formed in 1971, it is a lot of time, and a lot of legacy. If one were to add the true legacy of her father, slain in an army coup, after the ‘father of the nation’ was dubbed autocratic in his own way, there is a lot that Hasina’s own long innings at the helm has done, particularly to turn around the economy. But the fact also remains that Hasina has decimated the political Opposition with the kind of single-mindedness and strategy that none before her seems to have employed, not just in Bangladesh but across South Asia. In comparison, critics often charge Maldives’ past president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s 30 long years in office (1978-2008) as despotic, but he only ensured that no political Opposition was allowed to sprout. But once it happened, he could not stop it – and, instead, played along. Hasina has crushed political parties that were around and as active as her own, at times even more vibrant on issues. Violence, unlike her father’s time, they all were at it together, and at one another. When Hasina returned to power, replacing Begum Khaleda Zia as prime minister in 2009, the latter’s Bangladesh National Party (BNP) was still a vibrant Opposition party. So vibrant was street politics in the country that whoever between the Awami League and the BNP was in power, the other would launch massive agitations across the nation every now and again, agitations that would turn violent even without provocation at times, ending in arson and numerous deaths, both in police firing and mob incidents. Political ploy But not anymore. The BNP boycotted the previous parliamentary polls as Hasina upturned the Constitution amendment to have an interim-government for conducting national elections. In 2018, the court ordered Khaleda to 17 years in prison for corruption during her prime ministership. Similar cases could have been foisted against Hasina, too, when she was out of power for close to a decade from 2001. But Khaleda, who was her natural replacement, did not do so. For Khaleda, serving prison terms was not new, but earlier under the Ershad regimes, it was all on political matters, not corruption. The US dubbed the court case against Khaleda and jail term as a ‘political ploy’ to remove her from active politics. The Amnesty International (AI) concurred in ways. An ageing and ailing Khaleda had to be hospitalised in April 2019. She was ‘released’ for six months at a time from March 2020 until now, on humanitarian grounds, but with a rider that she should not stir out of her Dhaka home or participate in politics. And thereby hangs a tale. It is interesting to note that for a nominally Islamic country, the two women between them have been at the helm for a total of 31 in the 52 years of national existence. After Hasina, who is in her 13th year running as prime minister, Khaleda was in office for an equally respectable 15 years. It began with Khaleda taking over as prime minister in what otherwise is a male-dominated world of the nation’s politics in 1991, only to be replaced by Hasina in 1996. Khaleda returned to power in 2001 and stayed on for a second term, until Hasina’s current long run commenced in 2009. Huge vacuum Today, Hasina is 75 and an inactive Khaleda is two years older, at 77. This has left a huge vacuum in the second-line, not only in the BNP, where most other leaders are also cooling their heels in prison on various charges, but also in the ruling Awami League, where no effective and efficient second-line is in sight. Continual attempts at Khaleda’s aides to rebuild the party and revive their political presence has met with limited success, if at all. For the New Year, too, they have a 10-point agenda for ousting the Hasina government, but they readily accept that it is a ‘key challenge’. Be it as it may, the non-identification of an acceptable successor, if not an heir-apparent in the ruling party has become an increasing cause for concern – but no one is saying it in public. It can be argued that Bangladesh is a democracy and the Awami League is a democratic party, and they have the inherent resilience and institutionalised procedures to keep it that way, as and when the need arose. But the history of the nation — starting with the Mujibur era, followed by military coups and the final return of democracy, all with unabashed shades of autocracy in them — has not helped matters. It is not only enough that after Hasina’s time, the nation gets a democratically-elected prime minister. Given her own ways, and those of less-venomous Khaleda before her, Bangladesh would also have to avoid all shades of political vendetta, violence – and more so, any indication of prolonged instability. That could hit the nation’s economic prospects harder than already, as the post-Covid recovery proves to be more challenging than accepted. Considering that the nation was the fastest-growing economy in South Asia for a time in recent years, a deep slide at this stage can hurt the nation, its confidence and the confidence of its people in the scheme and the system, very hard. While it is true that situations find their leaders in nations across the world, given the greater complexities attending on governance in this globalised era, a new ruler at the helm, whatever be his background, won’t have the luxury of time that even Hasina and Khaleda had in their times. End to terrorism If there is one legacy for which Bangladesh would remember Hasina’s regime beyond her times, it would be for the ruthless way she could and did end religious terrorism in their midst. Terrorism in the country was two-fold. One was local and localised, the other was cross-border terrorism against India, funded and fanned by Pakistan’s ISI, using Bangldesh and other neighbouring nations as a base. With help and assistance from the nation’s security forces, the Hasina regime seems to have all but extinguished the last embers of terrorism in the country. This has also made India feel safer that much more. As recently as 2018, the Hasina government also came down heavily on radicalised Jamaat-e-Islami leaders for ‘war crimes’ relating to the 1971 Independence War, and through the court processes had them executed or jailed for long terms, as the case may be. As may be recalled, the Jamaat had colluded with the ‘occupying’ Pakistani army, in committing atrocities against Bangladeshi citizens through the war-period, and massacred individuals, especially academics and other intellectuals, who led the mass movement for freedom. They also did not spare women and children. The question is if during a transition such elements could and would rear their ugly heads, and if ‘external elements’, including Pakistani ISI but not stopping there, would not try to exploit the evolving situation. Experts are not ruling out an interim innings by the armed forces before democracy returns in full bloom, with all its failings, which have been hidden from the nation’s eyes for too long for its own comfort. Democratic legitimacy Fair enough, after misadventures of the Pakistani kind twice in a short-span, involving Ziaur Rehman and Hussain Muhammed Ershad, the Bangladesh military has been cautious not to dabble in political administration. Both these leaders still sought democratic, political legitimacy by forming their own parties and wearing the civilian garb in right earnest. Yet, as with democracies, they too found their downturns, and went away without glory. Only Ziaur’s wife Khaleda succeeded him as BNP chief and prime minister in her time. Rowshan Ershad remains the patron of the Jatiya Party founded by him, but the party did not travel much even when he was around, after being defeated in elections long ago. None of it means that the generals are adventurous. Rather, they seem reluctant, with most of them retiring into oblivion, so to say. Yet, if there is a political vacuum one fine morning, and the political class is either una1cceptable or is not up to it, then it might become their national duty to step in, if only to save the nation and save the constitutional scheme, of which they are only a part. The expectation is that in true Bengali national spirit, they would return to the barracks sooner than is respected for. A lot however will depend on the way the political landscape pans out, at least from now on, and how there is greater political space, not only for the political Opposition but also for aspirants in every party, for them to be able to remain vibrant without being violent, alive and active without having to fear the government and the courts. The writer is a Chennai-based policy analyst and political commentator. Views expressed are personal. 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