Baloch uprising: Pakistan is on the verge of implosion

Is Pakistan imploding? It is quite likely. Nothing threatens Pakistan as the current Baloch uprising. The Baloch insurgency against the Pakistani state has been a recurrent phenomenon since it acceded to Pakistan on March 27, 1948. Mir Ahmad Yar Khan Ahmadzai, the ruler of Kalat, signed the instrument of accession. This was done with the application of force by the Pakistani Army. It was force, not volition, that determined the merger.

The synthetic merger without consensus became the bone of contention between the Pakistani state and Balochistan. The Khan of Kalat demanded Independence for Balochistan. The British apprehensions of Soviet expansion wrapped up the matter, giving Pakistan the leverage to determine its territory. The repressive state apparatus unleashed enormously upon the Baloch people to quell their cry for independence. Insurgencies, therefore, became a routine. Five waves of insurgency took place in Balochistan in 1948, 1958-59, 1962-63, 1973-1977 and 2003 till date.

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The Baloch are a proud people who love their land, language, and ethnicity. They never accepted the subservience of Pakistan’s Punjabi dominance. Despite being the Sunni Muslim, the Baloch language and ethnicity always gave them a distinct identity. However, territorially, Balochistan is the largest province, constituting almost 43.6 per cent of Pakistan and located in the southwestern region of the country. Since its unwilling annexation, it has suffered immensely because of forced disappearances, killings, neglect, torture, human rights abuses, suspension of freedom, inadequate political representation, etc., inflicted by Pakistan. The consistency of this suffering has corroborated with the undying insurgency.

The August 25 attack on the Pakistani Punjabis, police station, defence personnel, bridges, rail tracks, vehicles, etc, is the most coordinated and precise offensive on the Pakistani state. This sends a strong message to Islamabad and signifies the Baluochistan Liberation Army’s (BLA) resolve. The Pak Army is in a soup. It does not know how to handle the spiralling tension. The situation now is not easy for the Army to accelerate its action. Balochistan is a rugged terrain. The mountainous landscape complicates the scope of the counter-offensive. Because of the prolonged insurgency, there are several pockets in Balochistan that the Pakistan Army cannot penetrate.

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The usual tactics of divide and rule of the ISI and Pakistan Army will not work this time. The game of factionalism does not seem to work anymore. The current insurgency is far more coordinated and sharply focused. The political and insurgent factions are in tandem and reinforce each other. This combination is the most lethal. The soft and hard methods are engaged to amplify the gravity of demands for autonomy and sovereignty.

In the past, Pakistan mishandled the Baloch problem. Repression became its tool of control. It galvanised the Baloch resentment into a full-fledged insurgency. Pakistan undertook a host of measures, both covert and overt, to douse the flame of Baloch liberation. The covert includes forced disappearances, human rights abuses, population mixing, Islamic indoctrination, profiling the protesters, espionage, intensifying military depth, appointing Pakistani stooge in the Baloch affairs, etc. The overt measures include the promises of more autonomy, new policies, economic incentives, employment, etc. These promises are made and junked thereafter. They had no effects whatsoever on the ground.

Moreover, Chinese interventionism in the region was achieved through its robust China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), launched in April 2015. The CPEC project passes through the heart of Balochistan, connecting the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China and the deep-sea Pakistani ports of Gwadar and Karachi. It also passes through the Pak-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK), a disputed area. The project gives China access to the Arabian Sea to materialise its Maritime Silk Route aspirations. The Chinese CPEP has also contributed to the intensification of the Baloch insurgency. The resource-rich Balochistan has attracted Chinese attention.

A perception prevails among the Baloch that China’s ulterior motive behind the CPEC is to drain the natural resources of Balochistan. This apprehension is not a fallacy or a hypothesis. The Chinese debt trap diplomacy is open to draw inferences from. Moreover, Balochistan has natural deposits of gold, diamonds, silver, copper and other metals, coal, sulphur, chromite, iron ore, barytes, marble, quartzite, and more, and natural gas and oil reserves. The collapsing economy of Pakistan needs support. Uncertainties around the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) financial support have drifted Pakistan to China. Its dependencies on China allow the latter to decide the rules of the game and terms and conditions of engagement. The foreknowledge of Chinese intentions has concentrated the Balochi attacks on the Chinese citizens in Balochistan.

The recent attack by Baloch insurgents on 25 August coincided with the visit of General Li Qiaoming, the ground force commander of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), to Islamabad. This may be a coincidence or a pre-determined one. If the Chinese casualties in Balochistan invite interference from the PLA, it will complicate and conflagrate the Baloch issue. It will be construed as a direct involvement of the foreign forces in the Baloch affairs. The Baloch resentment against the Chinese workers and engineers may increase in magnitude. If this continues, the CPEC will not make the required progress.

Pressure on Pakistan mounts at present. Economic and political instabilities are conjoined with the massive protests from PoJK, Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan apart from Balochistan. Pakistan is in the throes of balkanisation or collapse. All the problems have been bundled up to increase the weight of dissidence and disintegration. If this continues, the disintegration of a patchwork nation will not take much time. Balochistan poses the actual checkmate. Pakistan feels utterly helpless in curbing the emerging internal complexities.

The new dimension added to the Baloch insurgency is Dr Mahrang Baloch. Her fearlessness and resilience to fight against the Pakistani government for its atrocities in Balochistan have won the hearts and minds of the people, especially women, on the ground and across the globe. Her peaceful resistance mobilised mass support for the Baloch cause. Her leadership strikes a chord with Baloch women who have come to the streets for liberation. The grassroots rose with her to protest against Pakistan’s involvement in kidnapping, torturing and killing Baloch men. The admiration and respect she gathers worldwide will not fade away soon. It will gather some steam, which the Pakistani establishment finds difficult to grapple with. The Baloch nationalist movement against Pakistani state repression finds the most enduring voice.

Dr Jajati K Pattnaik teaches at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Dr Chandan K Panda teaches at Rajiv Gandhi University (A Central University), Itanagar. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.