Assembly poll results 2023: How PM Modi remains unstoppable for 2024 elections

The stunning electoral gains in the three Hindi heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan do not necessarily presage a sure win for the ruling BJP, as people vote differently in state elections as compared to Lok Sabha elections. However, unlike the losses in the same states in 2018 prior to the 2019 general elections, there are multiple pointers to suggest that the mood of the nation, especially in the populous Hindi hinterland, portends that the BJP is poised to gain incrementally in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, surpassing its earlier tally of 303 seats. This surmise is based on the following observations: First, the BJP lost these same three states in 2018, yet registered a contra-trend in the same states in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. So, what is the national import of these 2023 state wins for 2024? A flashback to the 2013 wins in these three states by the BJP before the 2014 national sweep by Modi is more reflective of the reasons for optimism, as it shows that this time around, the scale of victory is even higher than what it was at the beginning of the Modi Wave 1.0 which began during end-2013. Second, the decisive verdict in the three Hindi heartland states reveals that despite going into state elections without a chief ministerial face, it was the Modi wave that swept the elections. Yes, it seemed like a Modi wave for sure, despite most exit-polls predicting a cliffhanger in most states, except Madhya Pradesh. This favourably impacts the likely outcome for the 2024 elections as seen through multiple prisms: that Modi’s emotive connection with the voter remains in tact; that the voter believes in Modi’s deliverables, as he has systematised welfare delivery; and that the BJP’s organisational robustness has further strengthened due to abundant manpower and financial resources. Incumbency is a double-edged sword, no doubt, as it can lead to voter fatigue, especially if it is after two terms. Modi himself seems to buck that trend, as his popularity ratings are at historic highs of 70 per cent after two successive terms. Interestingly, a similar record of prolonged pro-incumbency has been sustained by the BJP government in Gujarat since last 25 years, in Uttar Pradesh which is the most crucial state for Lok Sabha elections, and in Madhya Pradesh since 18 years. Opportunistic coalition formations prior to general elections have seldom succeeded, and are unlikely to do so again. Empirically, each time a disparate opposition has tried to weave an opportunistic and clumsy alliance a year prior to general elections, the template has flopped under the weight of its own contradictions. More so now, as the Congress being the dominant force within the INDIA alliance will have diminishing powers to negotiate. Modi’s redefined demographic prioritisation cuts across caste or religious segmentation, as both are now archaic formulas. Modi’s victory speech on Sunday was unstoppable, as he redefined the demographics BJP prioritises — not by the stereotypical segmentation of caste, creed or religion — instead, he addressed himself as a guarantor of delivery to the youth, to the women, to the poor and to the farmer. Each of these demographic segments has enormous weightage, and collectively contribute to over 80 per cent of the voting populace. Modi’s ‘women-led development’ became a force multiplier to gain votes, as it is a cut above the cliched ‘women empowerment’ of yesteryear. The BJP’s success nationally has been diligently built on the back of the party’s targeted outreach towards women-centric concerns. Since 2014, the BJP has aggressively focused on delivery of social welfare schemes towards women. If it was a localised scheme of Ladli Behna in MP, it was the Mahatari Bandhan Yojna in Chhattisgarh that tilted the axis in favour of BJP. While these schemes bore electoral dividends in states, the passage of the Women’s Reservation Bill reserving 33 per cent seats for women in national and state legislatures has strengthened BJP’s outreach to this demographic ahead of 2024. The Axis My India poll results in MP, for example, showed that 50 per cent women supported the BJP, in contrast to 44 per cent men who polled in their favour. Same in Chhattisgarh, where the BJP was ahead of the Congress in attracting women voters who voted for a change. Women today comprise a distinct and voluminous voting entity, as education levels have risen. The model of gender-based competitive populism is being assiduously crafted by all political parties. Each regional party has developed its own localised version of region-specific welfarist schemes, like in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, etc. Ultimately, the woman voter casts her vote in favour of the party which has delivered on their promises. Pan-India, it is the innumerable flagship schemes of the Modi government that are closest to having achieved 90 per cent saturation in delivering on promises made a decade back. I myself fall in the category of a women voter. Even though toilets, gas cylinders and Awas Yojna, etc, matter to my rural sisters, I am also a ‘labharti’, a gainer, in another form. Women labhartis have gained across strata, whether it’s funding for micro entrepreneurship through Mudra loans, or increased financial inclusion, or free food grains. Even the upper echelons of women’s strata gained through increased labour force participation in the corporate world, or through an increase in economic vibrancy as reflected in the stock markets, due to a stable regime since a decade, and pro-women policies pursued by the Centre. The Modi dispensation has laid greater emphasis than previous governments on budgetary outlays for gender-specific expenditure. Gender budgeting is an approach to government fiscal policy that seeks to use a country’s national budget as a tool to resolve societal gender inequality, and promote inclusive development. The effective implementation of gender budgeting requires a political commitment ‘top-down’ in order to achieve gender mainstreaming. A targeted intervention has ensured that gender equality is integrated into the planning and budgeting processes, and that public budget revenues and expenditures benefit women, as they constitute the most marginalised sector. Under the current gender budget, the Part A component, which comprises 100 per cent women-specific schemes, has been allocated a sum of Rs 26,772.89 crore, increasing by six per cent from the last gender budget where Rs 25,260.95 was allocated. The BJP’s incremental voter base amongst women has been achieved as a result of not one single attribute but a cumulative of welfare programmes that benefited women across strata. The author is an ex-chairperson of the Committee for Financial Inclusion, Niti Aayog. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.