 "Asia: A tinderbox armed to the teeth")
A spectre in haunting Asia - of loaded guns and itching fingers, of armies brimming with weapons looking for a deliberate act of provocation, or just a little miscalculation to plunge into an all-out war.
From Turkey in the far West, to the Arab countries in the middle to India and onto China, South Korea, Japan and a massively unpredictable North Korea, a high tensile curtain of weapons and sensors is going down as defence spending goes up to unheard of levels.
The Asian arms race is driven by a complex interplay of factors, including regional power dynamics with aggressive arms built by China, and territorial disputes such as the one in the high Himalayas between China and India—military flashpoints like the one between Hamas and Israel and technological advancements like hypersonic missiles.
China is the elephant in the Asian room. Its official defence budget according to an estimate by SIPRI, a think tank, saw a massive 7 per cent increase in FY2024 at $230 billion making it the world’s second largest spender on defence. It also dropped reference to a peaceful unification of Taiwan in its latest proceedings signalling a rise in tensions. This massive military spending by China is a key driver of Asia’s arms race. Since 2020, China has spent more money than any Asian country aiming to transform the PLA into a world-class fighting force. This includes significant investments in naval power. A new homemade aircraft carrier, advanced destroyers like the Type 055 while Air Force Modernization included J-20, a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet designed to rival American F-22s and F-35s.
Most alarmingly, China is slated to increase its nuclear weapon production. China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads rose 17 per cent in 2022 to 410 bombs.
For Iran, the proxy war is costing billions and while official estimates put the spending at $10 billion. Iran pays for a lot of its arms through oil and unofficial channels. Israel spent about $23 billion on defence and got a boost of $4 billion from the US in 2024. Saudi Arabia meanwhile was the second-largest arms importer in the world from 2019 to 2023, accounting for 8.4 per cent of all imports, while Qatar was third with 7.6 per cent. These estimated by SIPRI do not cover homemade weapons.
Impact Shorts
View AllMoving on, India too has seen a massive rearmament programme including a domestically made aircraft carrier S-400 Triumf air defence system from Russia and Rafale fighter jets from France, India was the largest importer of weapons between 2018 -22 estimated at $15 billion. With its latest Agni 5 MIRV-enabled missile tests India will significantly add to the 200-odd nuclear weapons that it has in its arsenal. At $48 billion Japan is undertaking the largest increase in its defence budget as it sheds the fetters of imposed pacifism.
China’s growing military presence in the East China Sea, particularly its activities near the disputed Senkaku Islands, is a primary driver of Japan’s rearmament. North Korea’s ballistic missile tests and nuclear ambitions further necessitate a strong defence posture. South Korea is not far behind with $54 billion in 2024 which was a record defence budget.
The imperative point to note in the massive rearming of countries of Asia - particularly India, Saudi Arabia and China is that they aim to fulfil the twin aims of security and status. While the threat perception drives a lot of the acquisition the emergence of the Asian century also propels these nations to arm themselves to match their status as huge economies with colonial memories still fresh. Status matters.
Collapse of the global community
The Asian theatre thus is brimming with weapons. It’s not short of reasons to use them. The rearmament shows how impotent the United Nations and other institutions have become in checking flashpoints and introducing international diplomatic norms for arms control. It’s a free-for-all as arms control as a diplomatic option is dead.
If America continues its isolationist deglobalisation sentiment – which could be turbo-charged under a Trump presidency, do not rule out another, and bigger round of each country outspending the other as it fends for itself. With diplomacy lacking institutional credibility addressing the underlying causes of regional tensions and promoting peaceful solutions is not an option. There is no visible roadmap for a stable and secure Asia. The light at the end of the Asian tunnel is likely from a booming artillery piece.
The writer is a senior journalist with expertise in defence. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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