As India rises, it's time for a Neighbourhood First Policy 2.0

A full decade has passed and it looks like it was just yesterday when Prime Minister Narendra Modi took oath after securing a massive victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. A high point of that moment was that India was getting a decisive leadership after years of uncertain coalition politics, but there was more… For the first time after Independence, the leaders from all of India’s neighbourhood in the subcontinent were witnessing an Indian Prime Minister’s swearing-in ceremony in person. The gesture on PM Modi’s part was grand but what truly struck was the thoughtfulness that went into it. After all, Modi’s campaign was full of glitzy attacks on the difficult countries of the neighbouhood—Bangladesh was warned of migrant influx and Pakistan was attacked (very rightfully) over its tacit support to anti-India terrorists.

However, Modi as a Prime Minister turned out to be exact opposite to his high-decibel campaign-day avatar. The light and sound factor from the run up to the election was gone but the single-minded focus on India’s interests in the region was thoroughly retained. He not only got the optics right by inviting SAARC leaders to his swearing-in ceremony, but he also got the policy right by giving a fresh impetus to India’s neighborhood outreach. This time there was no ad-hocism in India’s approach towards its immediate neighbours but it was consolidated and concretised through the ‘Neighborhood First’ policy.

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As Modi’s second term in power concludes with political pundits concurring unanimously that a third term is right around the corner, it is time for taking a stock of this Neighborhood First Policy. What can be considered as the hits, what were the misses and where does India today stand with respect to its core interests in the Indian subcontinent—all these are important questions worthy of a discussion. So let’s explore them one by one.

The hits

When Modi won the elections for his first term, he had inherited a neighbourhood where India’s interests were facing multiple challenges. If proxy terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil was a huge nuisance, then Nepal’s Maoist turn was also a great irritant for India. Along with this, the China appeasement by the Rajapaksa family in Sri Lanka had created a maritime security predicament for India and so was the situation in Afghanistan where the Taliban were still strong and awaiting their return. Cut to 2024 and the state of the neighbourhood has turned around for much better.

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First, India’s repealing of Article 370 has effectively taken Kashmir off the negotiation table with Pakistan. Then Modi government’s stand, as elaborated by Sushma Swaraj, that there will be no talks until there is cessation of terrorism, has put the ball in Pakistan’s court. Also noteworthy is the fact that today Pakistan stands isolated in the region because of India’s proactive diplomacy.

India has not only taken initiatives blocked by Pakistan on the SAARC table to other forums such as BIMSTEC, but it has also solidified Pakistan’s image as a sponsor of terror, globally. One of the best tactics that India has used against Pakistan is to engage its immediate neighbour, Afghanistan. The classic Kautilyan dictum of ‘enemy’s enemy is a friend’ can be assessed through Modi’s India’s outreach to Taliban 2.0. Unlike any moral imperatives of the past, India has this time chosen only its own self-interest.

The situation has also changed in Sri Lanka where that country has finally woken up to the debt-trap danger of getting too close to the Chinese. In 2022 when Sri Lanka faced a massive economic turmoil, India outdid even the IMF by extending a lifeline to their economy in the form of a $4 billion financial and humanitarian assistance. If today Sri Lanka has banned Chinese research vessels from docking on its ports, a lot of credit for this goes to India’s readiness in helping Colombo at the time of need.

In fact, Sri Lanka’s pivot away from China has been so complete that just last week, the country handed Hambantota airport to India and Russia for management in order to ward off its massive losses. What was once a shiny piece of infrastructure meant for show-off and funded by Chinese money is now India’s responsibility.

A similar success of the Modi government’s neighbourhood policy can be witnessed in Nepal where the Maoist influence is waning with almost every single political party backing the country’s return to the status of the Hindu kingdom. They have set deadlines to this effect with even their Prime Minister, Pushpa Dahal Prachanda, paying obeisance at Ujjain’s Mahakal Temple during India visit in June 2023.

Whether or not Nepal actually returns to a Hindu Kingdom status is not known, but its disenchantment with Maoist politics is going to be a big win for India as China will automatically lose a great political leverage that it has enjoyed after Maoist victory in the country. In addition to this, India’s relationship with Bangladesh has emerged to be the most successful story of neighbourhood first policy as together Sheikh Hasina and Modi haven’t only settled centuries-old boundary dispute but they have also put Islamists at bay.

The misses

Despite India’s effort in securing its influence in the subcontinent, there have been some setbacks as well. For instance, Bhutan, the only other country in South Asia besides India that hasn’t signed up for China’s Belt and Road scheme is now slightly closer to Beijing than it previously was. Bhutan is almost on the verge of resolving its boundary dispute with China and that will leave India as the only country in the region that has an unsettled boundary issue with the Chinese.

What is even scarier is Bhutan agreeing for a major concession on Doklam plateau. In early 2023, it had sent alarm bells ringing in New Delhi when Bhutan had said that it considers China as a ‘party’ to the issue. India has huge stakes in Doklam plateau because it overlooks the vulnerable territory in the North-East. Any Chinese access to this land will undermine India’s security.

If India’s worries have aggravated due to the new Bhutan-China equation, then the Maldives has proven to be another headache. Till now New Delhi had ignored Mohamed Muizzu’s ‘India Out’ campaign by relishing in the fact that India enjoys a lot of goodwill with ordinary people of Maldives. However, Muizzu’s party’s ‘super-majority’ in general elections last month have definitely added to India’s worries.

After Pakistan, Maldives has emerged to be another neighbor which is firmly in the grip of Beijing’s alliance system—Muizzu paid his first visit to Turkey after winning his election besides sealing a $37 million deal to secure drones from them to patrol its high seas. Before this, it was India and its defence equipment that took care of this aspect by providing assistance to Maldivian defence forces. But now the ‘India Out’ campaign has become a policy from just a poll plank.

Time for new policy

As the curtain draws to PM Modi’s second term in power with a historic third term already on the horizon, the many hits and few misses of his Neighborhood First Policy need to be assessed objectively. This is important because there is a tendency in India’s strategic community to dismiss any achievement of India as an aberration and even a minor success of China as a ‘big threat’ to Indian position in the region. Here one point that needs to be clearly understood is that India’s strategic competition with China isn’t a sprint race but a marathon. There aren’t going to be any quick winners and nor is any lead of China over India set in stone.

What India can do the best is to provide a credible alternative to Beijing in the region. It is true that China’s economic success story has made it a hero for the leaders in the region but now India has finally started catching up, testament to this was a video circulating on social media last week where Pakistani businessmen were expressing desires to trade with India. India’s rise has provided an alternative to the countries in the subcontinent. Also, when it will grow into a $5+ trillion economy, it will also acquire the ability to loosen its purse to further incentivise these countries into not harming India’s interests.

As India awaits the results of its 18th Lok Sabha elections, only economic power seems to be the most potent tool in its armory to stop Beijing’s growing influence in the subcontinent.

The author is a New Delhi-based commentator on geopolitics and foreign policy. She holds a PhD from the Department of International Relations, South Asian University. You may follow her on X: @TrulyMonica. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.