 "Are India-US ties really in a ‘free-fall’, or are sceptics missing the wood for the trees?")
The India-United States relationship is subject to a perpetual cycle of optimism and pessimism. This cycle is independent of the geopolitical realities, inextricable linkages or alignment of strategic, commercial and security interests, and finds manifestation generally in rhetorical extremes.
Right now, on both sides, the sceptics have taken over. Alarmism is the flavour of the day. We are being told how the relationship is apparently “going into a free fall”, how ties remain “fundamentally fragile” and frictions may “ultimately derail future cooperation”. The solemn statements, sweeping in-depth, are unsupported by data and mostly based on “feels”. It’s all very bleak in a Dickensian way.
Meanwhile, news has emerged that two Russian-made stealth frigates are all set to join the Indian Navy despite the minefield of US sanctions over payment for Russian weapons. But all that seems to have been sorted out and while there was a two-year delay in delivery due to the war in Ukraine, the first warship may be handed over by September and another one by early next year, reports Bloomberg. The news understandably has further darkened the mood of sceptics.
Regardless of what the pessimists may say, or want the Joe Biden administration to do, it is unlikely that the US will impose penalties like CAATSA on India. There is enough pragmatism among top decision-makers in Washington to understand that the move might be counterproductive. India is a net security provider in the Indo-Pacific, and its depleted fleet getting strengthened is good news for everyone (well, maybe not China) including Washington, which wouldn’t mind New Delhi’s greater capability for burden-sharing. In any case, India does what it can to secure its interests. It’ll make two more warships at home, under the 2018 deal, in collaboration with Russia.
All this has made for a gloomy forecast. While it is easy to dismiss the scepticism as an overreaction, it has to be noted, however, that the gung-ho positivity of June last year, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was on a state visit to the US and addressed the joint session of US Congress, has been replaced by the sense of a more sobering reality. As both nations move towards election season, domestic anxieties, especially in the US, are spilling over and affecting ties.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe tribalism in the heart of American politics where the polity is split right down the middle is casting its shadow on American foreign policy. The Biden administration is under increasing pressure from the party’s far-Left corner, populated by Muslim-American voices, to eke out some identitarian ‘wins’ even as Democrats grapple with the loss of support from Muslims in key swing states due to anger arising out of Biden’s handling of Israel-Hamas war ahead of US presidential elections.
Amid the erosion of support from Muslims, a key democratic vote bank, the beleaguered Biden team has found in India, ruled by the party of “Hindu nationalists” BJP, a soft target for virtue-signalling on Muslim identity politics, and the result is some ill-advised, badly construed remarks on India’s Citizenship Amendment Act of 2019 that has triggered sharp exchanges.
The US State Department’s vilifying of India’s refugee and immigration resettlement policy, which was drawn up in India’s unique and historical context of Partition, forced an acerbic statement from the Ministry of External Affairs. The MEA reminded the US that it is “an internal matter of India and is in keeping with India’s inclusive traditions and our longstanding commitment to human rights”. On America’s remarks that it is “concerned” and “closely monitoring how this Act will be implemented”, the MEA denounced the comments as “misplaced, misinformed and unwarranted.”
India’s sharp rejoinder to the Biden administration is that “vote bank politics should not determine views about a laudable initiative to help those in distress. Lectures by those who have a limited understanding of India’s pluralistic traditions and the region’s post-partition history are best not attempted” is unlikely to have been glossed over in Washington.
The CAA sparring set the tone for a season of prickly swaps. Chief among the issues of dissonance, apart from the CAA, is Khalistani terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The ‘high-powered’ investigation launched by India, on allegations from US prosecutors that the US-Canadian citizen was at the receiving end of an attempted murder plot on American soil, reportedly found “rogue” agents of Indian intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) involved in the botched operation. According to reports in Indian media, one person “directly involved in the alleged attempt” was removed from R&AW.
The matter should have ended here, but it didn’t. The US is still sounding aggressive. A Hindustan Times report said the Biden administration is still pushing for criminal action against people involved. That may explain why last Thursday a US State Department spokesperson, on being asked whether it has received the report on India’s internal probe, replied: “We have made clear to the Government of India that we want to see them conduct a full investigation, and we continue to look forward to the results of that investigation.”
It seems that the Biden administration enjoys some leverage over the Modi government on the Pannun issue and is in no mood to take its foot off the pedal. The US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, has rubbed it in, saying that India’s conduct has crossed “an unacceptable red line”. In reply, all that foreign minister S Jaishankar, never a man to mince his words, could come up with was that “the US ambassador, as an ambassador, will say what he thinks is the position of his government. The position of my government is that in this particular case, there has been certain information provided to us that we are investigating…” The effort to play it down is evident.
There have also been pinpricks from Washington on India’s domestic political developments through statements that can be construed as blatant interference in India’s internal affairs during the ongoing election season. On top, eyebrows were raised at the apparent disregard that Foggy Bottom has shown towards India’s displeasure. The incarceration of Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal in a liquor scam case triggered sermonizing from Antony Blinken’s department on “fair, transparent, and timely legal process” for Kejriwal.
An irked MEA released a statement taking “strong objection to the remarks of the US State Department” and issued a reminder that “states are expected to be respectful of the sovereignty and internal affairs of others. This responsibility is even more so in case of fellow democracies. It could otherwise end up setting unhealthy precedents.”
South Block also summoned US diplomat Gloria Berbena, the Acting Deputy Chief of Mission for a 40-minute ‘conversation’ and lodging of ‘official protest’ on 27 March. India’s anger was clear.
Undeterred, Washington doubled down and later that day, issued yet another statement through Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, that the US “continues to follow” Modi government’s actions “closely”, “including the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal. We are also aware of the Congress Party’s allegations that tax authorities have frozen some of their bank accounts in a manner that will make it challenging to effectively campaign in the upcoming elections, and we encourage fair, transparent, and timely legal processes for each of these issues.”
This elicited one more response, and in its weekly briefing on the following day the MEA decried “any such external imputation on our electoral and legal processes” as “completely unacceptable”, adding, “in India, legal processes are driven only by the rule of law. Anyone who has similar ethos, especially fellow democracies, should have no difficulty in appreciating this fact. India is proud of its independent and robust democratic institutions. We are committed to protect them from any form of undue external influences.”
I have gone into some detail about the exchanges because they provide a fascinating window into the give and take between two ‘strategic partners’ that only last June was affirming a “vision” of both nations “as among the closest partners in the world” and declaring earnestly that the “Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership is anchored in a new level of trust and mutual understanding and enriched by the warm bonds of family and friendship.” We seem to have deviated a little from that bonhomie.
Ironically, America’s show of support for India’s Opposition came in for criticism from unexpected quarters. A Pakistani journalist at a State Department briefing last Wednesday wanted to know why Washington, which has come out in “strong support” of Kejriwal or the Congress Party in India, is unwilling to utter any words on the political prisoners in Pakistan. The discomfort of the spokesperson was evident.
Former prime minister Imran Khan remains imprisoned in Pakistan, and there have been widespread allegations that the mandate of the controversial national elections held in February was ‘ stolen’ by Khan’s rival parties who have since formed a government.
Interestingly, the Biden administration seems to have turned a blind eye towards the credible and extensive charges of manipulation of election results and accusations that the Pakistan Army interfered to rig the election against Khan, who still remains the most popular mass leader in Pakistan.
Early in March, 31 American lawmakers sent a letter to Biden asking him not to recognise the Shehbaz Sharif government “until an investigation into allegations of election interference has been conducted.”
Biden’s response has been to initiate formal interactions with the Sharif government, a courtesy he never extended to the previous Khan regime, indicating a course shift in US-Pakistan ties and ratification of Pakistan’s phoney elections.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday telephoned his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar in a maiden contact in which both sides reviewed bilateral ties and discussed regional and international issues.
Consider the developments. A genuinely popular leader remains imprisoned in Pakistan on spurious charges. The Pakistan military steals the election mandate and installs a lap dog regime in Islamabad. Six out of eight judges in Islamabad High Court accuse the country’s powerful spy agency, the ISI, of interference and intimidation.
These well-documented facts have raised concerns even among lawmakers in Washington. What does the Biden administration do? It formalizes ties with the puppet regime, pledges to intensify the “ security partnership” and professes “commitment” to a “robust partnership”, as US Secretary of State Blinken did during his telephone conversation with Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar on Friday.
It’s quite a feat to pull off such a stunt while lecturing India on “fairness”, “transparency” and “legal process”. Obviously, the coddling of Pakistan is being observed closely in New Delhi, and is certainly not adding to “mutual trust”. Similarly, the US embassy’s outreach towards Kashmiris and student leaders for an Iftar party, the first such an even post reading down of Article 370, gives an impression that the Biden administration is willing to test India’s red lines.
If the developments thus far give you the impression that the sceptics are right, let’s look at certain other developments concurrently underway.
Amid the visible friction between Washington and New Delhi, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is expected to arrive in New Delhi “around April 18” for the next round of talks on iCET (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies) that were supposed to be held in Delhi in February. The Hindu reports that “Sullivan is also expected to discuss a number of other issues”, including “cooperation in the Indo-Pacific”, “Quad” as well as “defence deals, including the recently cleared $3.99 billion deal for predator drones as well as plans for the fighter jet-engine technology deal between GE and HAL.”
The report also indicates that Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra, who is on a six-month extension, may visit Washington soon. It does seem that amid the visible dissonance, quiet cooperation on issues fundamental to the partnership, such as technology cooperation, security partnership, tightening of technology ecosystem, co-production of advanced defence systems, collaboration on emerging technologies are also underway.
What explains this calibrated confusion? Evidently, domestic political compulsions are interfering with the Biden administration’s grand strategy. Building of Indian capabilities must therefore go hand in hand with token protestation towards perceived ‘democratic backsliding’ in India and ‘oppression of minorities’ by a ‘Hindu nationalist government’. The balancing act is being embarked upon based on a quiet confidence in Washington that Modi government is likely to return to power and repercussions, if any can be managed so long as the structural linkages remain tight, and compatibility of interests remains secure.
Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.
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