Afghan foreign minister in Delhi: A tactical thaw in India–Taliban relations

Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s eight-day visit to New Delhi (October 9–16) is more than a diplomatic formality—it’s a calculated geopolitical message. This is the first high-level Taliban engagement with India since the group’s return to power in 2021, made possible only after the United Nations granted a temporary waiver to the travel ban that otherwise restricts Taliban officials.

The timing is as significant as the visit itself. The global order is in flux, and India’s foreign policy establishment is recalibrating its regional posture with quiet precision. In that larger backdrop, Muttaqi’s visit represents a moment of tactical re-engagement between two old partners separated by history, ideology, and circumstance.

India’s Tactical Reengagement

India has always sought a stable and friendly Afghanistan. Yet after the US withdrawal in August 2021, maintaining an embassy in Kabul became untenable. Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI would have targeted Indian diplomats and sabotaged New Delhi’s presence. Prudence dictated withdrawal—but not disengagement.

Now, India is returning to the Afghan equation in measured steps. This outreach is neither recognition nor endorsement; it is careful calibration. New Delhi’s approach is to preserve influence while not unsettling its partnerships with the US and Europe, which also have transactional relationships. The visit by Muttaqi fits perfectly into that playbook—a slow thaw rather than a bold reset.

The Taliban’s Motives: Breaking Isolation

For the Taliban, this trip is about more than diplomacy. Afghanistan cannot afford isolation—it lacks both resources and recognition. The regime survives on nearly $8 billion in external support channelled annually through the United Nations, mostly funded by the US and other Western donors. That dependence provides them considerable leverage.

But Kabul also knows that overreliance on Western aid and Pakistan’s goodwill is unsustainable. Engaging India allows the Taliban to diversify its options, gain some international legitimacy, and signal autonomy from Islamabad’s influence. In many ways, Muttaqi’s visit is Afghanistan’s attempt to escape the strategic cul-de-sac it finds itself in.

Engaging the Taliban need not mean endorsing them—it means recognising the geography and history of Afghanistan, both being crucial.

India’s Soft Power Advantage

India’s real strength in Afghanistan has always been emotional, not military. From Bollywood to cricket, from the Salma Dam to hospitals built with Indian aid, New Delhi earned a reputation for generosity and friendship. The “Kabuliwallah” image still resonates deeply in Afghan hearts, although the abrupt stoppage of visas did set back many Afghan citizens midway in their education and careers.

That goodwill must now be revived. Instead of ideological sermons on governance or gender, India should rely on human connections. Expanding medical, study, and academic visas, completing pending educational commitments, and restarting small development projects are practical and persuasive tools of engagement.

Welcoming a few Afghan military cadets back to India’s military academies—where they trained for decades—would be another quiet but symbolic gesture. Such steps reinforce trust without implying political recognition. Influence grows best when it is built through people.

The American Variable: The Bagram Factor

No Afghan conversation is complete without the American angle. While US troops may have left, its strategic interests in the region persist. If President Trump’s Gaza Plan shows early success—as he will surely claim—he may feel emboldened to reassert a physical foothold in Central Asia, beginning with Bagram Air Base.

Bagram is no ordinary facility. It offers surveillance reach over the Pamirs, Xinjiang, and even parts of Iran. For a global power, that kind of real estate is tempting. But operating it would be logistically complex and costly, requiring Taliban assurances for security and ground access.

India’s position should remain carefully nuanced. We historically welcomed limited US presence as a counterweight to Pakistan’s wayward impulses. But for now, it may be prudent for the US to remain away from Afghan soil—not through loud objection, but through subtle restraint. Overenthusiastic support could antagonise the Taliban and complicate India’s own diplomatic opening. Quiet caution is the wiser choice. We do not want the current equilibrium in the Pamirs region being upset at a time when the geopolitical environment of the entire world is in turmoil.

Regional Optics: The China–Pakistan Gaze

China and Pakistan will both view Muttaqi’s India trip through the prism of their strategic anxieties. Beijing wants Afghanistan to fit neatly into its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) grid while keeping Uighur militancy in check. Pakistan wants to retain influence in Kabul but finds itself at odds with a Taliban that no longer dances entirely to its tune.

Muttaqi’s presence in Delhi sends an unmistakable message: the Taliban want alternatives. For India, that’s an opportunity. Every inch of diplomatic space Kabul claims outside Islamabad’s shadow is a gain for India. Even symbolic engagement subtly shifts the regional balance.

Think Tanks, Trust, and Quiet Persuasion

During his stay, Muttaqi will likely meet not just government officials but also India’s think tanks and scholars—long seen as Afghan-friendly and open-minded. These informal networks play a quiet but powerful role in shaping perceptions and policy narratives.

Reports suggest that Muttaqi may also undergo medical treatment while in India — another understated but humanising moment. It demonstrates the trust Afghans continue to place in Indian institutions. India, meanwhile, can use such engagements to encourage gradual moderation within the Taliban’s ideological framework, especially on education and women’s rights — but always through dialogue.

A Visit Under Many Eyes

This visit unfolds under the watchful gaze of multiple powers—China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and the United States will all be reading between the lines. Yet beyond the geopolitics lies a simple truth: India and Afghanistan share a historical and civilisational intimacy that neither ideology nor occupation could erase.

The channels of empathy that once linked Delhi and Kabul are slowly reopening. The symbolism alone makes the exercise worthwhile.

Tactical Patience, Strategic Payoff

Muttaqi’s week-long Delhi trip is unlikely to produce dramatic announcements or signed agreements. But it marks a subtle and significant step in a long-term diplomatic recalibration. This is the art of quiet diplomacy—the kind that allows two wary actors to explore convergence without commitment.

India’s approach must remain one of tactical patience and strategic foresight: rebuild people-to-people bridges, strengthen educational and medical ties, and maintain steady communication. The goal is to quietly reclaim India’s traditional goodwill—and with it, influence that outlasts governments and regimes.

If handled with restraint and wisdom, this visit could begin the process of restoring India’s “Kabuliwallah” image—the trusted friend that Afghans have always turned to in times of uncertainty.

In the shifting chessboard of South and Central Asia, patience may once again prove India’s greatest strength.

The writer is a member of the National Disaster Management Authority. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.