A talk for talks: Why PM Modi’s Ukraine visit is a milestone moment for peace

Things are getting very interesting. It is now confirmed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine on August 23. Just weeks earlier, he had paid what was a rather overdue visit to Russia, where there was clearly some talk of ending one of the most pointless wars ever fought.

Now, rumours and hints from the  Ministry  of External Affairs suggest that India might at least attempt to initiate dialogue between the two sides. This isn’t mediation—it’s just the beginning of a beginning. But it’s crucial, both for a world that seems to be taking several leaps back and for India, which is on the brink of becoming a $5 trillion economy, with a neighbour equally determined to prevent that, even if it means war.

No, this war must stop.

The horror of the war

The statistics are dismaying. Though the casualty count varies depending on who’s giving it, going from  71,000-300,000  Russian soldiers, and around  69,000-500,00 for Ukraine. Be that as it may, the fact is both Russia and Ukraine are struggling to replace soldiers with foreigners, including Indians, being drawn in as foot soldiers. Approximately 6 million refugees have fled, and the devastation of what was once a prosperous land is staggering.

There is a constant fear of nuclear disaster, with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant under continuous threat and a new front possibly opening if Ukraine targets the Kursk nuclear installation. All this, however, does mean that the two may have fought themselves to a near standstill, but still jockeying for position, as Ukraine has with its Kursk invasion. It’s time for talks, perhaps.

New Delhi’s concerns

Meanwhile, the war has affected the world, not just Europe, which is grappling with a mere 0.8 per cent growth forecast and a 19 per cent rise in defence spending. This is bad news for the global economy, which, as the  International Monetary Fund  notes, is also struggling with serious inflationary effects. Inflation knows no borders, especially in a conflict of this scale. You see it when you’re paying nearly fifty rupees for a kilo of potatoes and over Rs 250 for your daily dal. That’s what worries the big men in Delhi. That, and how to defend this country.

For Prime Minister Modi, it’s therefore not just the carnage of the war, which he has publicly condemned. India’s economy had to absorb the shock when crude oil prices surged by about  27 per cent . The impact extended to fertilisers, with Russia being India’s fifth-largest supplier, followed by Ukraine and Belarus as the ninth and tenth largest, respectively. In April 2022, two months after the war began, India’s retail inflation rate spiked to an eight-year high of 7.79 per cent due to sanctions and supply chain disruptions, well beyond the Reserve Bank’s tolerance limits. That shock has yet to fully subside, though efforts are gradually reining it in. Hence, Delhi has strong domestic reasons to seek an end to the war.

India and Ukraine

Meanwhile, there is the very real issue of relations with Ukraine, where trade has dropped by a third since the war began. Apart from sunflower oil, iron, and steel, India also imported parts for nuclear reactors. Ukraine had around 15 nuclear reactors, all of Russian origin. In 2021, it was still exporting parts to  Russia . Now, it is planning to manufacture components for  Small Modular Reactors . And irony of ironies, Ukraine is also trying to import  mothballed  reactors from Russia, in a time of energy crisis. These are the realities of interdependence between the two nations.

Then there’s the all-important issue of defence supplies. It’s crucial to remember that it was the Soviet Union that established Ukraine’s defence industry, which accounted for around 15 per cent of total production, including R&D and test facilities. This industry comprised some 700 plants and employed approximately 500,000 people. The focus was heavily on naval installations such as the Mykolayiv shipyards and Zorya-Mashproekt, which recently supplied gas turbines for Indian Navy frigates through a separate deal. The Antonov aircraft factory, which produced its last aircraft in 2016 (and spares for our own fleet), and the renowned Motor Sich, which provides engines for nearly all Russian aircraft, including the helicopters in India’s arsenal, are also noteworthy.

The Indian Air Force has a large fleet of Mi helicopters, including its Mi-17 medium-lift helicopters (MLH) that form the backbone of its vertical lift component, as well as the latest Mi-17 V5 variant, totalling about 270 platforms. Then there’s the Malyshev plant, one of the largest in the world, which provides engines for tanks. Its most recent customer was Pakistan, for its Al-Khalid tanks, and it also supplied engines for India’s T-72 tanks.

The Ukrainian industry is now reinventing itself, though it will inevitably shift towards Western systems in the future. At present, its defence production is fast and furious, valued at over $3 billion. This includes armour, anti-tank weapons, and the “Sea Baby” maritime drones, which have inflicted significant damage on the Russian navy. French, German, and Turkish companies are now moving in. It may be time for India to consider either production contracts or joint ventures.

An agreement on gas turbines is likely, but ideally, it would be beneficial to encourage Russia and Ukraine to collaborate once again on defence industry platforms. As with nuclear energy, there is significant mutual benefit in creating common platforms for a durable peace. There is nothing like the profit motive to give peace a chance.

Talking peace

The key question is whether both sides are ready to talk. The Ukrainian push to seize Russian territory in Kursk is clearly a strategic move to leverage land for its own objectives elsewhere. Putin appears at least open to talks, and India has a role in this, as the Russian President ‘thanked’ PM Modi for his efforts to resolve the crisis. Previously, Delhi was set to be involved in preventing the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, in collaboration with ‘other countries’.

President Zelenskyy  had earlier sought PM Modi’s involvement in implementing his  ten-point  peace proposal. In July, Zelenskyy suggested that Russia attend a peace summit in November, a proposal Moscow did not reject until the Kursk incursion. Now, Russia flatly refuses. However, these are all public positions.

Ultimately, the question is whether each side can claim a “victory.” This is problematic. Zelenskyy might be compelled to take that step regardless, given the suffering of his people and the undeniable fact that Ukraine cannot retake all of its territory. He may be able to secure some concessions, particularly after the events in Kursk. Russia has its annexed Donbas region to show as a win, and additional territory for negotiation. Before the Kursk invasion, there were  reports  of secret talks in Qatar. Russia might be willing to return some of the territory it has captured, provided it doesn’t threaten its hold on Donbas or Crimea.

The mediation thing

A UN  Guidance  paper notes, “Mediation is a process whereby a third party assists two or more parties, with their consent, to prevent, manage or resolve a conflict by helping them to develop mutually acceptable agreements.”

In short, the consent of all concerned parties is vital. The challenge here is that there are at least ten or more ‘concerned’ countries involved, including primarily the US, the UK, France, and Germany, all of whom need to claim a ‘victory’. One possible solution could be to allow Biden to claim that he ended a ‘ruinous war’, which could then be marketed by the efficient White House machinery. But that’s hardly enough.

There is one way out, and that is for President Putin to leave his seat, at least officially. That would be a ‘win’ for all concerned. Besides, it may not be legally tenable to negotiate with a ‘war criminal.’ That’s all down the road. At present, India has to first protect its own interests, which is its focus, rather than the security of this or that European power. Secondly, India must prioritise ending this war for its own good, preferably with both sides resuming normal contact. This outcome, with the best possible terms, is also what much of Europe desires.

Therefore, on the cards are talks about talks, which is several steps ahead of the ‘mediation process’. No one wants to step into that particular quagmire, with too many uncertainties lurking beneath. However, rising powers may have to take that risk.

The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.