100 days of Modi 3.0 shows steady consolidation of gains in West Asia

In a world of flux and uncertainty, Modi 3.0 took oath on June 9, 2024, making history as Narendra Modi was sworn as the Prime Minister for a third time in a row, an unprecedented feat in the past 50 years in India. The numbers were not as overwhelming as the previous two occasions resulting in the formation of a coalition government, thereby putting doubts in the minds if and how the government would be able to carry on its agenda as proactively as the previous two terms.

The results in parliamentary elections may have some restricting effects domestically, but on the foreign policy front, Modi 3.0 has hit the ground running. In fact, days after being sworn in, PM Modi attended the G7 Summit in Italy on June 14 as a special invitee.

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Developing Partnership

West Asia has been a region of special focus for India in the past decade and has truly been an unprecedented success story. During this phase, India forged strategic partnerships with many countries in the region. The UAE emerged as a key anchor and India’s closest partner in the region with a strategic partnership agreement signed with it in August 2015 during PM Modi’s first visit there.

The scope and depth of strategic convergence with the region got a further boost when India signed similar agreements with Saudi Arabia in October 2019 and Egypt in January 2023. Modi’s visit to Bahrain in August 2019 (the first-ever Indian PM’s visit to the nation) and to Qatar in February 2024 were significant in enhancing outreach in the region.

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India’s traditional dependence on the region for its energy imports got a major boost in the past decade, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE emerging as the top three exporters of crude oil, despite Russia offering discounted prices owing to the ongoing war in Ukraine since 2022–23. The UAE became the first country in February 2018 to agree to store strategic oil reserves in India.

Economic partnership with the region too has emerged as a major form of cooperation. The CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) signed with the UAE on February 18, 2022, developed and agreed upon in a record time of 88 days was the biggest highlight, aiming to increase bilateral trade to $115 billion in five years. Adding to it, on February 1, 2024, India also approved the Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) with the UAE.

With PM Modi pushing for faster roll-out of Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) in India and in the region, Fintech emerged as yet another area of mutual convergence. The RuPay card was launched in the UAE in August 2019. Oman too signed an agreement on Fintech cooperation with India in October 2022, becoming the fourth country in the region after Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE where India’s UPI is accepted for financial transactions.

Security cooperation with the region has emerged as a new area of collaboration. Oman, with which India has the oldest military cooperation agreement in the region, signed in November 2008, has been a frontrunner in security cooperation. A military agreement facilitating the provision of logistical facilities to the Indian Navy in the port of Duqm in Oman was a game changer, as it now offers critical advantage to the Indian Navy in its operations in the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and even the Red Sea.

Interest in countries to import high-value weapon platforms like Tejas fighter aircraft, Brahmos missiles, and other weapons and ammunition offers a lucrative market for Indian defence exports. The nine million Indian expatriate community, through their discipline and hard work, too have contributed immensely to India’s growing ties with the region, and their safety and welfare is an important form of engagement.

Modi 3.0 and West Asia

Modi 3.0 has started well in trying to build on the solid platform of the past decade and consolidate its relations further with the region. The start of the new phase was, however, not too auspicious, as a major fire in Kuwait on June 14 took 49 Indian lives. However, prompt action and close collaboration between both governments ensured that the repatriation of mortal remains and other settlements were smooth and seamless. It also perhaps paved the way for a closer understanding between the two countries in the future, as Kuwait is the only country in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that is yet to host a Modi visit.

Later on August 18, S Jaishankar, the External Affairs Minister (EAM), visited Kuwait, where he held discussions with the Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Mubarak Al-Sabah and the Prime Minister Ahmed Abdullah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. The strong interest to provide impetus to economic ties, both in trade and investments, as well as talks on new areas of untapped potential, is likely to impart a fresh momentum to the bilateral relations. The adversity of the unfortunate fire and the realisation that there is a need to make up for the lost time in re-invigorating ties may finally result in a visit by PM Modi to Kuwait later in the term.

The UAE remains the primary focus and anchor of the ties with the region, and it was clearly evident when PM Modi and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met at the G7 Summit in Italy on June 14. It was soon followed by the visit of S Jaishankar to the UAE on June 23, 2024, where he met the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Among other things, both sides reviewed the rapid progress being made under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which has already contributed to bilateral trade growing to $84 billion in FY 2023-24. Shortly, thereafter, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Khaled, the son of UAE President, and next in line for the leadership of the UAE, was on a state visit to Delhi where he was accorded protocols reserved for Heads of State. During the visit, he held talks with PM Modi on trade and strategic ties. As a result of the visit, five agreements pertaining to nuclear energy, LNG, petroleum, and food parks were signed.

Qatar was another important visit undertaken by EAM soon when he visited Doha on June 30 and held talks with Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani. Apart from bilateral ties, a key element of talks was the Gaza war, where Qatar is playing a key role as an interlocutor.

Perhaps the most significant engagement of the first 100 days was the First India-GCC Foreign Minister Meet held in Riyadh on September 9, formally institutionalising an important relationship with the region. During the visit, EAM not only held bilateral talks with counterparts of GCC countries but also forged a clear understanding of the basic tenets of the relationship with the region, which is built on a foundation of trust, mutual respect, and a shared vision for the future.

Also, the fact that the partnership in all areas, especially in the fields of renewables, technology and innovation, health, space, and education, can bring about collective prosperity as well as help realise respective national goals, was highlighted. This first dialogue has laid a strong foundation for an institutional arrangement of strong cooperation spanning various facets between India and the Gulf region in the future, including a possible Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

India and Iran are looking to make up for the lost time and forge a stronger partnership. The operationalisation of the Chabahar port deal on May 14 is a major boost. But both need to build on other facets too. A statement by Iran’s Supreme Leader on September 16, where he listed India along with Gaza and Myanmar as one of the places where Muslims are suffering, was obviously not received well in India, which rebutted it immediately by stating that India “strongly deplored” the comments and called them “misinformed” and “unacceptable”. However, both nations have to understand that this bilateral partnership is too important and precious to be derailed by such stray statements (often targeted at domestic audiences). However, as Modi 3.0 progresses, India-Iran ties are likely to take better shape.

With Oman, the strong security cooperation continues. The India-Oman joint military exercise, AL-NAJAH 5-2024, at the Rabkoot Training Area in Oman, is in progress, from September 13 to 26. A delegation from India’s National Defence College (NDC) too visited Oman in the first week of September to further consolidate bilateral defence ties.

Conclusion

Modi 3.0 and West Asia have started strongly and hope to continue their strong cooperation and collaboration across multiple fields. With four visits by the EAM to the region (more than any other region), ie, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, in the first 100 days, and a high-profile incoming visit of the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, India has made it clear that West Asia continues to be its foreign policy priority. The Gaza war and the continued demand for India to take on the role of peacemaker too indicate the trust and confidence that the region places in India. As Modi 3.0 continues its term, there is hope and certainty that the relationship with the region will continue to grow stronger. A visit to the region by PM Modi shortly, perhaps to Kuwait, may work magic even faster.

Col Rajeev Agarwal is a military veteran and West Asia expert. During his service, he has been Director in Military Intelligence as well as Director in the Ministry of External Affairs. His X handle is @rajeevidsa. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.