Monkey 1 stays ahead of experts in 2011, but indices lead

Sure, 2011 was a bad year for the markets. But Monkey 1 salvaged some pride as the year drew to a close by nosing ahead of our expert-selected long-term portfolio. While our Monkey Portfolio 1, with 10 randomly-selected stocks from the BSE 100 index, lost 8.61 percent since inception, the experts’ portfolio compiled by Firstpost after talking to stockmarket wizards, lost 8.63 percent.

[caption id=“attachment_169274” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Monkey 1 has stayed slightly ahead of the game: Reuters”] [/caption]But there’s no reason to celebrate. For Monkey 1 trails both the indices, Sensex and Nifty, by a large margin. Since 19 August, when we launched our two Monkey portfolios and the expert one, the Sensex and Nifty have eroded by 4.25 and 4.57 percent respectively. The indices have beaten everybody.

Monkey 2’s portfolio, drawn randomly from the BSE 500 index, has clearly been a big loser, with a 21.4 percent loss since inception. Last week, however, it clawed back some losses by reporting a portfolio loss of 0.89 percent against Monkey 1’s 1.27 percent and the expert portfolio’s loss of 1.88 percent.

During the year, the biggest dampeners in the expert portfolio have been Bhel, Coal India, L&T, Infosys and Axis Bank, all of whom have lost 24-35 percent of their value. Reliance Industries, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis have been weak performers last week.

For Monkey 1, the bad performance has been led by Adani Enterprises, Grasim, Idea Cellular and Siemens. For Monkey 2, BASF India, J&K Bank, KSK and JSW Energy have dissapointed.

If 2011 has been eminently forgettable for the Monkeys and the markets, 2012 is when they could make a comeback. They are now heading for tax-haven destinations, both for a vacation and to convince more of their FII backers to stay the course in 2012.