Brokers beat Monkeys, Sensex, but stay nervous on Budget 2012

Just six days before Budget day (16 March) and everyone is feeling just a little bit nervous.

The abysmal performance of the Congress in the Uttar Pradesh elections has prompted several experts to reconsider (read lower) their expectations from the Union Budget. Ditto for the Monkeys and the brokers, who, sources told us, are more preoccupied with what will happen to the economy next than who gained or lost last week.

[caption id=“attachment_239957” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“Just a week before the Budget everyone is feeling just a little bit nervous. Reuters”]  [/caption]

For the record, for the week ended 9 March, all three of them put up a better performance than the Sensex, which shed 0.8 percent. Monkey portfolio 1, consisting of 10 randomly-picked stocks from the BSE 100, dropped 0.4 percent, while Monkey portfolio 2, consisting of 10 randomly-selected stocks from the BSE 500 , gained 0.4 percent. The brokers’ portfolio, consisting of 10 stocks picked by 10 brokerages , shed 0.6 percent, which was just slightly below the Nifty’s o.5 percent loss.

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For the period since inception (August), the brokers edged ahead of the Monkeys, pocketing a 10 percent gain and nearly matching the Nifty’s 10.3 percent advance ( See table ). Tyre maker MRF was the best performer, jumping nearly 60 percent.

Monkey 1, meanwhile, matched the performance of the Sensex with an 8.4 percent gain ( See table .) As usual, Yes Bank was the top performer, soaring nearly 40 percent.

Monkey 2, as volatile as always, lost 2.5 percent **( See table .)**The biggest disappointment was KSK Ventures, which fell nearly 30 percent.

But no one’s gloating this week. Over the past 14 days, the brokers and the Monkeys had drawn up their respective wish-lists on what they expected from the Union Budget (read what the Monkeys want here and what the brokers expect, here ); now, they’re worried that many of those wishes might remain unfulfilled if the government opts for a more populist Budget.

As Firstpost pointed out last week, both sides are busy making preparations to give their reactions to the Budget once it is announced. For a change, both sides have called a truce to focus on the week ahead.

The countdown has begun.