Kejriwal gets a free ride, but his politics is the same

Now that we have seen Arvind Kejriwal in action for a few weeks, it is possible to come to a few tentative conclusions about whether he — and his so-far unnamed political party — are a force for good or chaos. (The grapevine says his party could be named Swaraj Kranti Dal, but we will know by the end of this month). Several questions arise. Does Kejriwal have a fix on the country’s real problems? Is he an anti-corruption messiah whose remedies will work? What are his solutions, and how will they impact us? Is he really different from the political parties we currently have? What accounts for his ability to grab TV viewers’ attention? Is he just a rabble-rouser or a leader who can really lead? What we have seen so far are the following: he has an ability to grab eyeballs by focusing on allegations against the high and mighty (example: the dossier on Robert Vadra); he also has the ability to spot populist opportunities (as in the Delhi electricity tariff hikes); but so far he has exhibited a serious shortage of ideas on deeper issues (of which, more later). His efforts to take the law into his own hands — to force Delhi to cut power tariffs — have been criticised as anarchist. But with popular mood on his side, this has not mattered. Let us also understand why Kejriwal has been successful so far, despite his break with Anna Hazare. Thanks to Coalgate and other such egregious corruption scandals, the mood in the urban centres has again reached boiling point, like it did last year, when the Anna Hazare movement took off vertically. Kejriwal is harnessing the tailwind again, aided additionally by the recent government decisions to hike diesel, power and other tariffs, which have soured the public mood. [caption id=“attachment_484239” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Naresh Sharma/Firstpost[/caption] Politically, the mainstream opposition parties — from the BJP down to the regional parties — are simply not able to tap into this anger as well as they could have. Reason: they are all looking like incumbents — if not at the centre, then at the states. Kejriwal is the proverbial outsider to the system who has greater credibility right now. The exit of Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev from the stage — however temporarily — is aiding the Kejriwal show by not providing competition for eyeballs. But, ultimately, they will be competing for the same issues in the same spaces. The Congress party has been simply inept in the way it has been handling the Coalgate and Robert Vadra affairs. In Coalgate, it tried to do what it did with 2G — claim that the problem started during the NDA regime — in the hope that people will tar the BJP with the same brush and neutralise the opposition’s advantage. But in the process, the Kejriwal initiative is looking clean and untainted. Kejriwal is successfully playing to the prime-time gallery by releasing his so-called dossiers on corruption in instalments. There is thus a build-up of expectations, and follow up action in the media. Needless to say, at some point the media will tire of this news-by-instalments approach, but that is some distance away. Most important, the Vadra case was a good first effort since it took the battle right to the heart of the political system — the Sonia Gandhi household. Faced with a Kejriwal hijack, normally reticent opposition parties had to join the melee. And Kejriwal scored big. So, the first conclusion is that Arvind Kejriwal has arrived on the political scene at the right time to harvest public anger. His tactical moves have served him well, and the media took the bait — just as it did last year with Team Anna. But, clearly, this cannot last. When he gets closer to an election — say around the time of the Delhi elections — he is going to be asked tougher questions, and his answers cannot just be slogans. Now, for the real questions about Kejriwal. Is he breaking the mould in Indian politics? Yes and now. He is different, to the extent that he is not compromised like some of our other political parties, and steeped in corruption. But nothing he has said so far suggests that he will really be different from the rest. Remember, the BJP was once considered a party with a difference. A few years in power at centre and states ended this difference. Kejriwal is in that sweet spot where the public is willing to take him at face value and he is making the most of it. But he is actually no different in terms of what he wants to do. The Congress party has built its parliamentary majority by promising freebies. So have the BJP and the regional parties such as DMK, TDP, Akalis, Trinamool, et al. The Congress’ policies have brought the economy to ruin, forcing a PM to tell us that “money does not grow on trees”. Kejriwal wants to cut electricity tariffs, and diesel prices and many other things. It is not clear where he will find his money tree. Kejriwal so has merely played the “free lunch” card like any other politician. Is he an anti-corruption messiah whose remedies will work? Again, the difference is one of perception and the lack of taint right now. This engenders the hope that Kejriwal will do something to stop big-ticket corruption. But so far he has not outlined anything beyond an all-powerful Lokpal as the nemesis of the corrupt. A powerful Lokpal is a necessary condition to tackle corruption, but the real answers are systemic. Example: power may be priced high because of theft and corruption, but to say, like Kejriwal, that power companies’ profits should be redistributed through lower tariffs is foolish. It is one thing to criticise profiteering, quite another to say power companies must not make profits. Without profits, no one will invest in power. The real solutions to corruption are deregulation and the curtailment of discretionary power. And, of course, reforms in electoral funding. One presumes Kejriwal will support this, but he has not had anything to say on this so far. If corruption happens in scarce resources – land, spectrum, etc – the remedy is transparency and openness. The Lokpal can do so much and not any more. Is he just a rabble-rouser or someone with genuine solutions? It is difficult to pronounce one way or the other, since Kejriwal has only begun his act. Most political parties play to the populist gallery when they begin. But once they have power, they cannot have it both ways: give freebies, and still manage an efficient economy. A few weeks back, Kejriwal made this statement: “You can allocate coal blocks for free. But we don’t have money for giving it to the common man. Rs 13 lakh crore (of) tax concessions (have been) given to corporates in (the) last three years. Can’t government give a Rs 37,500 crore subsidy on LPG?” This is nothing but rabble rousing and rhetoric. The two issues — coal blocks and gas subsidies — are not linked. The coal blocks allocation scam is wrong, but that does not mean cooking gas has to be endlessly subsidised. In fact, if coal blocks were not given away free, and were indeed auctioned, the chances are power and fuel prices would rise, and cooking gas prices would cost even more as a consequence. The point is scarce fossil fuels should not be underpriced and overused. The conclusion is pointing in this direction: Kejriwal is the messenger of the popular mood. He is not the message. At least, not at this stage. We have to wait for his party to mature like the others. If he ever achieves power with his kind of rhetoric, the collapse of public faith in him will be faster than that for the regular political parties. He is enjoying a honeymoon with the public right now from which he has to wake up sooner or later.