How superbugs could kill nearly 40 million people by 2050

It kills millions annually, but little is known about the problem.

Antimicrobial resistance or AMR will kill nearly 40 million people over the next 25 years, according to a new global analysis.

The study discovered that whereas drug-related mortality among very young children is on the decline due to advancements in immunisation and hygiene, the trend for their grandparents is the opposite.

The analysis has been billed as the first research to track the global impact of superbugs over time and estimate what could happen next.

Let’s take a closer look.

What is AMR?

Antimicrobial resistance is the result of pathogenic bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites evolving defence mechanisms against drugs that are conventionally used to treat them.

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Some refer to the novel, resistant diseases as “superbugs.”

It is a natural process that takes time, but excessive and needless use of medications, especially antibiotics, in humans, animals, and plants is speeding it up.

This is because drug exposure trains germs how to resist them.

The study’s author, Dr Mohsen Naghavi, at the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics (IHME), said in a statement, “Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern.

How big is the problem?

The study, published in the Lancet, was conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (Gram) Project.

Researchers used data from 520 million individual records across 204 countries and territories to produce estimates of deaths from 1990 to 2021, and forecasts running through to 2050.

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They looked at 22 pathogens, 84 combinations of drugs and pathogens, and 11 infectious syndromes such as meningitis.

More than a million people across the world died from the superbugs annually between 1990 and 2021, according to the study.

Deaths among children under five from superbugs fell by more than 50 per cent over the last three decades, the study said, due to improving measures to prevent and control infections for infants. However, when children now catch superbugs, the infections are much harder to treat.

Deaths of over-70s have surged by more than 80 per cent over the same period, as an ageing population became more vulnerable to infection.

AMR mortality decreased in 2021 compared to 2019, but the researchers noted that this was probably just a transitory drop brought on by fewer infections as a result of COVID-19 control measures.

Deaths from infections of MRSA, a type of staph bacteria that has become resistant to many antibiotics, doubled to 130,000 in 2021 from three decades earlier, the study said.

How will it be a global threat?

The researchers used modelling to estimate that, based on current trends, the number of direct deaths from AMR would rise by 67 per cent to reach nearly two million a year by 2050.

It will also play a role in a further 8.2 million annual deaths, a jump of nearly 75 per cent, according to the modelling.

Under this scenario, AMR will have directly killed 39 million people over the next quarter century and contributed to a total of 169 million deaths, it added.

According to the analysis, the majority of deaths in the future are expected to occur in sub-Saharan Africa, southern and eastern Asia, and South Asian nations, including Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan.

These are some of the regions that have already experienced the most rapid rise of AMR and may gain the most from expanding access to antibiotics and enhancing overall infection treatment.

“These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing,” Naghavi said in a statement.

What can be done?

Less dire scenarios are also possible.

If the world works to improve care for severe infections and access to antimicrobial drugs, it could save the lives of 92 million people by 2050, the study’s modelling suggested.

There is an acute shortage of new antibiotics being developed. The assumption that any new antibiotic will preferably be used in small dosages presents a significant obstacle. Numerous governments are experimenting with different approaches to encourage the creation of innovative antibiotics.

Notably, the study was released ahead of a high-level AMR meeting at the United Nations scheduled for September 26.

At the UN General Assembly in New York, world leaders will gather to talk about the problem of antimicrobial resistance.

They are anticipated to restate a political declaration on intensifying efforts to combat antimicrobial resistance, which advocates anticipate will include a goal of a 10 per cent reduction in AMR-related mortality by 2030.

With inputs from agencies