Coronavirus Lockdown: Indian economy to contract 5% in FY21, worst-ever performance by country, says Goldman Sachs

American brokerage Goldman Sachs expects the Indian economy to contract by 5 percent in FY21, making it the worst performance by the country ever

Press Trust of India May 18, 2020 20:07:03 IST
Coronavirus Lockdown: Indian economy to contract 5% in FY21, worst-ever performance by country, says Goldman Sachs

Mumbai: American brokerage Goldman Sachs expects the Indian economy to contract by 5 percent in FY21, making it the worst performance by the country ever.

The brokerage said the GDP will contract by a mind-boggling 45 percent in the June quarter as compared to the January-March period on an annualised basis, because of the continuing lockdown which is chilling economic activity, before recovering later.

A slew of watchers are expecting a contraction in the Indian economy in FY21, some even after the Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus announced by the government. Goldman was earlier expecting a 0.4 percent contraction before revising it down to a level it shares with Japanese brokerage Nomura.

 <span class=Coronavirus Lockdown Indian economy to contract 5 in FY21 worstever performance by country says Goldman Sachs" width="380" height="285" class="size-full wp-image-4391191" />

Representational image. Reuters.

"The -5 percent growth we forecast for FY21 would be deeper compared to all 'recessions' India has ever experienced," its analysts wrote in the note.

The virus continues to spread in India, resulting in the pushing of the nationwide lockdown with the gradual relaxation of restrictions, while concerns among consumers and businesses continue, it said.

Click here to follow LIVE updates on coronavirus outbreak

The rebound from a quarterly perspective will be very strong in the September quarter, it said, expecting a 20 percent growth in GDP over the level of June-end, but added that the same will be gradual from then on.

Joining its peers, the brokerage also said that the reform measures announced by the government will help growth only over the medium term and are not expected to have any benefit in the near-term.

In line with its peers, the brokerage also said that the fiscal impact of the stimulus measures announced by the government is very small at 1.3 percent of GDP.

The brokerage said while the slow growth may result in calls for even more stimulus from the government, the likely help will be smaller as compared with the post-2008 crisis as well because of the fiscal situation in India.

Updated Date:

also read

Euro 2020: Fans at England's European Championship games to use vaccine passports
Sports

Euro 2020: Fans at England's European Championship games to use vaccine passports

There will around 22,500 spectators for England's first two group games, against Croatia and Scotland at Wembley, with the stadium running at 25 percent capacity.

UN says pandemic created an 'unparalleled' employment crisis, impact may last for years
World

UN says pandemic created an 'unparalleled' employment crisis, impact may last for years

An uneven economic recovery is expected to begin in the second half of 2021, driven by progress in vaccinations and large-scale fiscal spending, said the world body

Taj Mahal to reopen two months after being shut down amid surge in COVID-19 cases
India

Taj Mahal to reopen two months after being shut down amid surge in COVID-19 cases

COVID-19 precautions mean visitors will not be allowed to touch the shining marble mausoleum, an Archaeological Survey of India official said